BuffaloWeather

check out the LES thread. Some places got 2' in Ontario, crazy.

Their discussion has even less.. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 310 PM update... A low pressure system that develops in the Southwest will move up the coast Tuesday. Confidence is beginning to increase that this system will bring measurable snowfall to the area though uncertainty remains on amounts and where the heaviest snow may fall. If the track of this system becomes more inland, then there would be potential for a wintery mix or sleet for our southern forecast area, but for now, staying with just snow in the forecast based on current guidance. While there is some uncertainty with the timing, there is general agreement with model guidance that this will be a quick moving system with snow ending by Tuesday night as the system moves out of the area and up the coast. High pressure moves in behind this system giving the area a break between systems. Lake effect snow showers could be possible midweek, but confidence was too low to include them at this time. Models are indicating that a low pressure system from the Southwest will move into the area at the end of the period but much uncertainty remains as there is poor agreement on the track of this system.

@mississaugasnow Going to be some 2' totals near Hamilton?

https://news.yahoo.com/difficult-winter-travel-threatens-weekend-121500684.html

It's only Friday. There is quite a lot that can happen between now and the first system, let alone the next system later next week. We should know this...especially this season with storms going 150 miles NW within 12 hours. I'm fine with their discussion. I think it would be dumb on their part to forecast 10-20" and broadcast it on twitter and Facebook 3-5 days in advance for it to not occur. Then you see even more people saying Mets are wrong all the time, we don't need more then there already are. Saturday Widespread light snow Saturday night but amounts will be minor, generally 1-2 inches. Mon night-Tuesday An active wintry pattern will continue, with a potential for snow on Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday/Thursday night. A trough across the nations mid-section will result in an active weather pattern during the period. There are some model disagreements, but in general runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been fairly consistent showing two systems impacting our area. The first is on Monday night and Tuesday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to track across the mid-Atlantic states. This places our area on the northern fringe of the system, but with good upper level support (trough and jet dynamics) the area should get at least some accumulating snow from this system. Best moisture and lift across southern portions of the cwa, where advisory to potentially warning amounts are possible. A few inches is the most likely outcome for Buffalo and Rochester, but still lots of uncertainty. Thursday Slightly better model agreement for the next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow.

TLDR?

All of us will have 15-20+" this week. Feel pretty confident in that. Between the 3 LES events we had and this coming week of snowstorms this year is going to get a huge boost.

Most wintry period I can remember across all of USA. I have friends skiing in states all over the country right now.

Looks like its drifting south and more onshore

Cases and hospitalizations are going down much quicker than I thought. This virus is gone come summer time.

This is type of pattern where Rochester and Buffalo north get their seasonal totals from. Always a little lake enhancement from Ontario.

Looks like 2nd storm on Euro is going to be SE of GFS

Appreciate the maps BGM

Any more video of that band? Seems to be just along the lakeshore

Euro is pretty massive hit, with ratios thats 10-20" for all of us.

GEFS look good

https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn21-20gfs_v16.0.pdf Here is the document

Tidbits no longer has Para, hopefully they add it.