BuffaloWeather

Chicago getting a taste of a real lake effect storm today. Such a sick band! You guys are going to be addicted to it now like I am.

High RES models

NAM

RGEM

There are going to be some crazy snowfall rates overnight. I need to take a nap so I can get my 3 am jeb walk in. If you guys know me I'm all about the rates and its tough to get high rates around here in synoptic events so I'm excited.

Sorry to hear Blizz. We appreciate you on these boards and thoughts and prayers with your mom.

GEM farthest north it gets

I still pretty good where I'm at, pretty far west. I'll take the risk of riding the taint line to get the good QPF and heaviest snow rates. But any last minute ticks and we will have to worry even here.

Para looks a little better

Rain up to SYR?

You guys all said something about last minute SE shifts? That hasn't happened in quite awhile. Like I said earlier, it always goes further NW then modeled last minute. (At least this season has)

Embrace the yearly trend, last second NW shifts of 100-200 miles.

GFS goes about 100 miles NW from previous runs

Houston we have a problem, GFS way NW. Even I have to worry about a mix now.

High res

Icon and Nam suck. Toss em both into the icefree portions of lake erie.

RGEM with 15" over Buffalo

Number 1 Analog March 7th-9th, 2008

Yeah that was one of Buffalos largest ever synoptic events. 20-30" for everyone.

2008 7th-9th...One of the worst storms of the 2007-2008 winter season occurred on from the 7th through the 9th. This was an extended two part event but totals of one to two feet were common, with some isolated higher amounts. The storm occurred over a weekend so impact to daily activities (school and businesses) was minimal. Numerous automobile accidents were blamed on the slippery conditions and poor visibilities in falling and blowing snow. The 21.6 inch total measured at the Buffalo Airport was the greatest general (non-lake effect) snowfall in Buffalo in 24 years. Other snowfall reports included: 30 inches at Ellicottville; 26 inches at Lockport and Perrysburg; 24 inches at Depew; 23 inches at Getzville; 22 inches at North Tonawanda and Hamlin; 21 inches at Hamburg, Amherst and Niagara Falls; 18 inches at Brockport, Colden, Sinclairville, and Warsaw; 17 inches as Copenhagen, Forestville and South Dayton; 16 inches at Darien and Scottsburg; 15 inches at Colden, Gaines, Pulaski and Basom; 14 inches at Middleport, Lacona, and Webster; 13 inches as Greece, Hannibal and Kennedy; and 12 inches at Cato, Bennetts Bridge and Marion.

Number 1 Analog March 7th-9th, 2008

2nd storm looks further SE on NAM. Unless we see other models join the further NW club we toss the NAM.

Low almost to Erie...