BuffaloWeather

KBUF says mixing line won't make it as far north as some models are saying Area of light snow currently spreading across the region associated with a weak inverted trough. Still looks like we will receive some minor accumulations, a general 1" to maybe up to 2 inches in some locations. The snow will slowly taper off as we head into the afternoon hours. This will then be followed by a lull in precipitation later this afternoon with several hours with little to no accumulating snowfall. The lull in the precipitation will be short lived with snow moving back in as a stronger storm approaches from the south this evening. Light snow will overspread the region and pick up in intensity with the arrival of a 50 to 55 knot LLJ. Deep moisture and lift extending well through the DGZ will likely lead to snowfall rates exceed 1" to as highs as 2 inches per hour at times overnight. The sfc low with this system will track from the southern Appalachians and then pass by just to our south by early Tuesday morning. With that said, there has been some concern that the p-type will potentially transition to a mix of snow/sleet. 15/06Z BUFKIT sounding profiles right now show this might occur over our far southeastern and eastern counties. This would be for Allegany, Livingston, and possibly Lewis county, if enough warm air is able to sneak in aloft to change it over. Otherwise, for a majority of our area it will be an all snow event with significant accumulations. The sweet spot right now appears to be along and just north of a tight baroclinic zone setting up across the region from the Niagara Frontier extending NE into the North Country. This is where snowfall amounts will likely approach 12" or even a bit more with contributions off Lake Ontario. Anyways, no changes to headlines with a Winter Storm Warning going into effect tonight which continues through Tuesday afternoon.

In Canada we trust

Lets hope GFS is wrong, this run never transfers the low to the coast which allows it to go further NW with freezing line.

GFS went even further NW. The low never transfers, goes right up into Buffalo

@96blizz Wanted to also say Blizz if you need someone to talk to or pm let me know. I am going through something similar to you. My mom has stage 4 cancer and is at Roswell every other day trying to beat a very rare form of cancer. So give me a pm anytime!

You're going to get buried.

Almost complete whiteout on webcam https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum

Chicago is getting destroyed right now by lake effect, a really rare event Check out webcam https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum

Chicago getting a taste of a real lake effect storm today. Such a sick band! You guys are going to be addicted to it now like I am.

High RES models

NAM

RGEM

There are going to be some crazy snowfall rates overnight. I need to take a nap so I can get my 3 am jeb walk in. If you guys know me I'm all about the rates and its tough to get high rates around here in synoptic events so I'm excited.

Sorry to hear Blizz. We appreciate you on these boards and thoughts and prayers with your mom.

GEM farthest north it gets

I still pretty good where I'm at, pretty far west. I'll take the risk of riding the taint line to get the good QPF and heaviest snow rates. But any last minute ticks and we will have to worry even here.

Para looks a little better

Rain up to SYR?

You guys all said something about last minute SE shifts? That hasn't happened in quite awhile. Like I said earlier, it always goes further NW then modeled last minute. (At least this season has)

Embrace the yearly trend, last second NW shifts of 100-200 miles.

GFS goes about 100 miles NW from previous runs