BuffaloWeather

20" bomb on Kuchera

I'm off Wednesday this week so I'll be chasing this if GFS is right with those totals SE of here.

GFS is showing 20" totals SE of me in Alleghany county, pretty insane...Temps in the upper 20s during the event.

Going to be close for winter storm watches on this one. I think if 18z runs show similar totals you kind of have to go watches. The storm starts around midnight tomorrow night. We will be within 30 hours of start time.

1.82" max over Alleghany county, 19" Kuchera.

GFS was stronger with more QPF

Icon

1.25" for max QPF

KBUF, even talks about lake effect weds night lol The expectation is for a window from late Tuesday night through the first half or so of Wednesday morning when ascent is maximized immediately on the cold side of the frontal zone resulting in a swath of higher intensity snowfall rates. Considering warm ground temperature, even high snowfall rates into a relatively cold late night/early morning boundary layer may struggle to produce 10:1 snow- liquid ratios. Though the current forecast suggests snowfall amounts in the 2-5 inch range with the higher amounts focused on higher terrain, as well as the Niagara Frontier including the Buffalo metro area, it is expected that there will be additional forecast adjustments to these amounts over the next several forecast cycles. Precipitation should taper down Wednesday afternoon. Cold air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes behind this system, with scattered snow showers developing. 850 mb temperatures as cold as -12c will develop lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Wednesday night with some additional accumulation likely.

NAM is correcting to other model guidance.

Late April snows are very rare in Buffalo. Almost all storms happen in first 2 weeks. If we get 4-6" it would probably be second highest late season snowfall aside from May 1989. https://www.weather.gov/buf/BuffaloSnow

Here’s a good article https://wyrk.com/history-of-snow-in-april-in-buffalo/

I'm trying to remember that storm you talked about. The forecast was for that much snow but I think I chased that one up in the Boston Hills. I don't remember 12-18 inches, I think it was 6-7" max.

9 Degrees showing up in NE PA

11 degrees in NE Ohio has to be pretty rare cold for late April

I'm just talking about the cold air coming, not the storm.

It's pretty rare, From Indiana NWS. SPC UPPER AIR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, CIPS ANALOGS AND GEFS M-CLIMATE RETURN INTERVAL ALL SUPPORT AN EVENT THAT MAY POSSIBLY BE CLASSIFIED AS A 50 YEAR OR 100 YEAR EVENT. A VERY STRONG ANOMALOUS SIGNAL WILL SET UP TUESDAY.

With the rates forecasted and temps in high 20s the snow will have no problem accumulating very early weds morning. As we get into the afternoon it definitely will be an issue. Either way its likely gone within a day. Going to be a fun 12 hours though.

A late April snowstorm is pretty rare, its the only reason im interested in it. Average temps are in the high 50s right now. This storm is extremely rare. Temps in the upper 20s for the main part of the storm. It's like a once in 25-30 year interval airmass.

Yeah, temps are actually plenty cold enough to stick with 28 degrees during heaviest rates.

I thought it was long gone?

NAM is farther NW

RGEM

UK

GFS goes a little further SE