BuffaloWeather

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Wednesday. The heaviest snow will fall from the pre-dawn hours through mid to late morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and very slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute. This will be a heavy, wet snow, and may result in isolated power outages and a few downed tree limbs. It appears that there will be a window of at least several hours late tonight and Wednesday morning when the snowfall rates will be heavy enough not have too much of a problem sticking to grassy and untreated surfaces at onset. In fact, some mesoscale guidance suggesting the potential for snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in some areas. A challenging part of the forecast is trying to figure out how much snow is able to accumulate on warmer pavement surfaces which could limit snowfall amounts, but this should only be an issue very early on. Once paved surfaces get a layer of snow, accumulation will certainly be no problem thereafter. Enhancement from the lakes could also come into play as the flow turns more northerly which could send amounts a bit higher. The synoptic snow should quickly clear much of the area by Wednesday afternoon, setting the stage for some lake effect snow showers Wednesday night. Northwest flow will focus most of this into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and from Orleans County eastward across Rochester to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes off Lake Ontario. Upslope flow will also keep more widespread snow showers going across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. We will likely see additional localized accumulations in the most persistent bands.

I think we should create a separate thread for this event, pretty memorable one for so late.

The newest runs of the WRF models all show 6-8" at 1:10. I don't think we will see 1:10, more like 1:8

Some nice banding on RGEM Temps

Boston Hills are getting 6-10" out of this. They will be well below freezing. With 1-2" rates, a warm ground means nothing.

Kansas city over performed with 2.7" and they added to it since 7 am. Their largest snowstorm of the year and largest late season storm on record.

That's a cold airmass

A lot has to go right to get accumulating snow in late April, so this setup is definitely rare.

It hits WNY overnight and into morning hours too, so almost perfect timing.

Last nights Euro UK

Looks like a pretty big event for late April here, calling for 4-7"

As someone who travels international 2-3 times a year this hurts, but I have enough places to go to in the USA for the next 1-2 years. Doing a west coast road trip through the 6 national parks in Utah and Arizona next month and doing Alaska in August.

Buffalos snowfall record for April 20th, I think for the 21st is 1.3". April 20: 5.5”, 1901

It appears that there will be a window of at least several hours late tonight and Wednesday morning when the snowfall rates will be heavy enough not have too much of a problem sticking to grassy and untreated surfaces at onset. In fact, some mesoscale guidance suggesting the potential for snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in some areas. A challenging part of the forecast is trying to figure out how much snow is able to accumulate on warmer pavement surfaces which could limit snowfall amounts, but this should only be an issue very early on. Once paved surfaces get a layer of snow, accumulation will certainly be no problem thereafter. Enhancement from the lakes could also come into play as the flow turns more northerly which could send amounts a bit higher.

GEM

WRF models

GFS RGEM

Yep.

I mean lake temps were in the 60s for the October storm.

NAM is furthest NW, its been pretty persistent. I think you still toss it, no other model agrees with it.

I was just going off KBUF records. If you include the entire area the southern tier has had some big April snows as wolfie posted that was one of them

Thoughts for Buffalo area?

Snowiest Aprils 15.7 1885 15.0 1975 13.9 1904 13.8 1894 13.1 1961 12.0 1957 11.4 1886 10.9 1982 10.4 1901 9.9 1990