BuffaloWeather

the met at GRR actually had a great write up on this Impact of Tropical Storm Rai (west Pacific) on our weather for next week As it turns out, Tropical Storm Rai, in the western Pacific is heading due west toward the Philippine Islands. It should become a typhoon by this evening. Why to we care about this in Michigan? As it turns out, it will have a major impact our weather for the next week. What this does is it stalls the MJO on the edge of phase 6 to phase 7 since in phase 7. In phase 7 the area near the Philippines should be dry. That changes the entire northern hemispheric wave train. It will delay the arrives of the really cold air till after Christmas (we need a solid phase 7 for that cold air to get here). This means largely zonal flow for our area for the next week. That will prevent any strong pushes of cold air and also not allow the much phasing with the next two storm systems that follow the Thursday event. The result will be the system on Saturday will have a northern and southern branch component to it. The northern branch part stays north and the southern branch part stays south. Still we are close enough the jet entrance region driving the system that some light rain/snow is possible. Northern area will see mostly snow, central sections a mix of rain and snow and mostly rain south of I-94 (not enough push of the cold air for snow there). Any precipitation with this will be meager at best. There is another system early next week, that too lacks any real cold air. Expect some light snow north and a mix south. Finally a better system is possible near Christmas. This is about the time that the tropical cyclone in the west Pacific influence should be fading. Maybe snow by Christmas? Bill Marino, great forecaster, been there forever

GFS says no snow until at least new year with some crazy warmth.

OP GFS gets warmer and warmer each run. Hopefully Ensembles don't start showing the same. Merry Christmas.

EPS has a servicable pattern later next week.

Lets just hope the cold air doesn't keep getting delayed and delayed like the last few years.

I think this is the last real warm week. As we head into the end of December even slightly above average temps can give us snow. It looks to be up and down though with no real arctic air until after Christmas. The end of the GEFS show the Epo going negative and slowly bleeding eastward. Our biggest worry is that SE ridge. Canada has loads of cold air to tap, that will eventually happen. This isn't like a lot of recent years where Canada is on fire and no source of cold air. I'm still pretty optimistic.

My wife and my uncle and aunt.

GEFS next week don't look too bad

This sums up the Bills game

Just booked my flights and rental car for Alaska in August of 2022.

It might not get below 32 here for an entire week in Mid/Late December incredible.

We got one thing going for us. Lake temperatures will be at record highs as we head into the new year and our coldest normals of the season.

Osu said the upcoming pattern is pretty dam good for synoptic snow. Chance of a cutter or two, but if you guys want “man” snow for your snow depth fetishes you may get your wish. My 5” per hour fetish will have to be put on hold.

Just incredible

Lost in translation yesterday but Buffalo beat its record high by 6 degrees. Record was 61 we hit 67. The normal high is 38 so +29 yesterday!

Looking at some damage reports of roofs that were blown off homes, definitely a high end event.

I don't think its a terrible look at all after next week.

I was trying to remember if I went to shoreline for that November event. I went to hamburg lakeshore. Did you go to same place we went yesterday for that one? This one did quite a bit of damage to the retaining wall all over Hamburg. Also did damage to the blacktop road.

I couldn't leave it was so much fun. I need to chase a cane next.

8 Reports above 70 MPH including the one along the Buffalo Waterfront. Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Wyoming... Warsaw 71 MPH 0545 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Wayne... Pultneyville 61 MPH 0646 PM 12/11 CWOP Williamson 59 MPH 0540 PM 12/11 CWOP Ontario 57 MPH 0555 PM 12/11 NYSM Williamson Sodus 53 MPH 0620 PM 12/11 AWOS Wolcott 52 MPH 0635 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Southern Erie... Hamburg 68 MPH 0352 PM 12/11 Trained Spotter East Aurora 59 MPH 0555 PM 12/11 NYSM Brant 56 MPH 0435 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Oswego... Oswego 55 MPH 0700 PM 12/11 NYSM Redfield 55 MPH 0720 PM 12/11 NYSM Central Square 48 MPH 0720 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Orleans... 3 E Medina 61 MPH 0525 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Ontario... Clifton Springs 65 MPH 0700 PM 12/11 NYSM South Bristol 57 MPH 0635 PM 12/11 NYSM Canandaigua Airport 55 MPH 0655 PM 12/11 MESOWEST ...Northern Erie... 1 SW Buffalo 74 MPH 0535 PM 12/11 Mesonet Buffalo 71 MPH 0342 PM 12/11 NOS-NWLON Buffalo Airport 66 MPH 0354 PM 12/11 ASOS Kenmore 63 MPH 0245 PM 12/11 Cocorahs ...Niagara... Niagara Falls Airport 74 MPH 0405 PM 12/11 ASOS Pendleton 60 MPH 0306 PM 12/11 CWOP Niagara Falls 59 MPH 0328 PM 12/11 ASOS Burt 55 MPH 0355 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Monroe... Brockport 63 MPH 0655 PM 12/11 NYSM Rochester Airport 60 MPH 0559 PM 12/11 ASOS Rush 46 MPH 0535 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Livingston... York 59 MPH 0635 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Lewis... Harrisburg 65 MPH 0740 PM 12/11 NYSM Copenhagen 58 MPH 0730 PM 12/11 NYSM Glenfield 57 MPH 0740 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Jefferson... Fort Drum Airfield 66 MPH 0551 PM 12/11 AWOS Cape Vincent 65 MPH 0610 PM 12/11 NYSM Wellesley Island 63 MPH 0740 PM 12/11 NYSM 2 SE Dexter 59 MPH 0619 PM 12/11 ASOS Philadelphia 56 MPH 0555 PM 12/11 NYSM Belleville 53 MPH 0545 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Genesee... Batavia 76 MPH 0515 PM 12/11 NYSM Batavia 70 MPH 0536 PM 12/11 AWOS ...Chautauqua... 3 NNW Fredonia 68 MPH 0400 PM 12/11 NDBC Fredonia 64 MPH 0225 PM 12/11 NYSM Dunkirk Airport 63 MPH 0315 PM 12/11 ASOS Jamestown Airport 49 MPH 0601 PM 12/11 AWOS Clymer 48 MPH 0645 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Cattaraugus... Delevan 53 MPH 0555 PM 12/11 NYSM Randolph 49 MPH 0245 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Allegany... Wellsville Airport 51 MPH 0511 PM 12/11 ASOS Grove 49 MPH 0420 PM 12/11 NYSM ...Maritime Stations... 2 NW Dunkirk 78 MPH 0535 PM 12/11 C-Man Station 1 NW Oswego 61 MPH 0654 PM 12/11 C-Man Station 3 NNW Irondequoit 60 MPH 0600 PM 12/11 NDBC Olcott 55 MPH 0700 PM 12/11 NDBC