BuffaloWeather

Weeks 3-4, thats exactly what you want for our area in terms of synoptic.

Looks like Jan 1st is the pattern change, around there. That's next Saturday, not too far away.

Yeah the models are really struggling, I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend colder.

Sabres game tonight canceled due to covid. I had tickets wondering when they reschedule.

Here is the event, Pulaski did decent with 13" https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2020-2021&event=B

If you have to choose 1.

Hypothetical would you take 1 50"+ LES/Synoptic event or a winter with consistent 1-3" snowfalls every couple days and normal temps? You know my answer.

Last year started Christmas Eve. Had 30” from Christmas Eve to Christmas Day.

Yeah that frame is a cutter look.

It's coming

Maybe we just think our winters are better than they are. It's rare to get winters like 2013-2015 were. The late 70s were also an anomaly.

The general theme of that winter was warm. It looks like March was the best month. https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary0102 NOVEMBER November was a remarkably mild and dry month across all of western and central New York. There was no snow in Buffalo for the first time ever.. DECEMBER December continued the trend from October and November with plenty of mild dry weather right on through the 23rd. JANUARY The month began with the cleanup from the huge holiday week storm in the areas east of both lakes...but soon reverted to the unusually mild and dry pattern so prevalent in November and most of December. FEBRUARY The month began with the tail end of the major synoptic ice and windstorm, and then was closely followed by a combined synoptic and lake effect system that dropped the heaviest snow of the season for much of the Rochester area and Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region with 4 to 8 inches. The month then reverted to the all too familiar mild and dry pattern so prevalent this winter. MARCH March was the most active winter month across western and central New York this season, as winter and spring battled it out with some fierce winds and a variety of storms.

Buffalo is actually ahead of where they were back in 2001. I've been saying this all along only takes 1 storm. But in order for that 1 storm to happen we need arctic air. I've been looking for it all month, its stuck in the northwest.

not so fast my friend. Dec 2001 was not a good winter overall. Dec 2001 was a very warm winter and ranks as the 10th warmest december overall. That entire autumn was extremely warm. That winter was a 1 storm winter, the rest of it was very warm. I remember vividly the 45" snow depth melting within a week or two across Cheektowaga. I was pretty much ground zero for that storm. 1 42.1 2015 2 37.6 1923 3 37.5 1889 4 37.5 1982 5 37.2 2006 6 36.8 1881 7 36.7 1877 8 36.6 1891 9 36.3 2012 10 35.9 2001 If you click on the link here you go. Lake Effect Storm December 24, 2001- Jan 1, 2002 After a record warm and nearly snowless November and December, western and central New York underwent one of the most significant and abrupt changes in the weather that has ever been recorded in this area. Almost no snow had been recorded in the region (1.6 inches at Buffalo) up until the days before Christmas, leaving everyone wondering if we would have a white Christmas at all. By about December 22nd, forecasters began to see signs of a significant change in the large scale weather pattern across North America. Advanced computer models were showing a blocking pattern developing over Greenland at upper levels of the atmosphere, forcing an upper level, closed low to develop and strengthen over the Upper Great Lakes. Forecasters on the eastern Great Lakes are familiar with this synoptic pattern, because it is conducive to the heaviest lake effect snows in western and central New York. The low was forecast to trap enough cold air from northern Canada to produce heavy lake snows. Even more alarming was the forecast that the upper low would move little, if any during the next week. This would produce more serious implications for the eastern lakes. 1. The pattern would mean that an extended period of lake effect snow was likely, possible for an entire week. 2. The wind direction would remain the same for a long time, which would result in a band staying over one particular region for days at a time.

Theres nothing wrong with that pattern TBH. That is a good synoptic setup for us, slightly cutterish but not terrible. Average temps this time of year are cold.

The GEFS are back to what they were before

Normal temps in 8-14 days feature highs in low 30s

They just went off board, they were on board for the last week hopefully one fluke.

12 runs were putrid even gefs long range keep cold in northwest. The cold air has been in northwest for last 4-5 years.

Forgot to add the canadian ENS is on board too

Bet we hit 50 here too Christmas Day A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

We're about to get every indice going our way into new year. If it doesn't snow something is wrong. Not posted but EPO goes negative too.

Yeah we had a trace yesterday and today here.