BuffaloWeather

The summits don’t usually have a lot of snow. It’s the 1/2 mile below the summits that do. I’m at 38/46 for high peaks planning to finish next year. I follow adk trail conditions and there is 2-3’ on most peaks. The wind blows the bare summits like whiteface snow all over. You need to find the protection of the trees to find depth.

If ya'll get real desperate you guys can come hike a ADK high peak with me. Always a few feet of snow on the tops. In good winters 6 feet+

Yeah we've been saying it for awhile on these forums while others along the east coast require more blocking. It's virtually impossible to get a good LES pattern without a -EPO.

We need PAC help. You can have atlantic blocking all day but if you have that warm SW flow there is little hope of a good pattern.

Dark horse candidate for epic January melt would be @Thinksnow18

GFS saves the melts temporarily.

Totally forgot about him, he has a chance. I'd put the odds at about 33.33333%

It will be a close match between @TugHillMattand @rochesterdave. I've also seen some good melts from @lakeeffectkid383and some epic ones from @WNash But his are understandable as he hasn't really gotten a good LES yet north of Buffalo. Nothing beats the New England melts though, those are crazy.

I meant mainly the New England forum but yes.

I was in denial to list that season as an analog because it was such an anomaly but the potential was always there. I still think it doesn't end up like that one. Would be fun to read the melts on the forum though.

Yep this reminds me of 2011-2012 almost to a tee. It was one of the top 2 analogs. We had a decent 2 week stretch in January then nothing the rest of the winter.

KBUF writes how poorly the models have been. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The global models continue to have poor continuity resolving the evolution of shortwaves passing through a general zonal flow across the country. The period of focus for precipitation will be Friday Night through Saturday Night, with rain snow at onset becoming plain rain...before ending as a rain snow mix. However the speed of these shortwaves, and their influence on the broader synoptic pattern is yet to be resolved.

Models are really all over. This is Sunday Snow game at foxboro?

Maybe a christmas miracle?

I also chase so it doesn't have to happen in my backyard for me to enjoy it.

I enjoyed last winter quite a bit.

Exactly. If we get a 50"+ event in January you think anyone will remember anything else about this winter?

How is your daughter doing, hopefully better!

I've been going through some winter weather summarys and think even I have a misrepresentation of what a normal winter is like in Upstate. It seems 1-2 big events alter ones way of thinking in any given winter. https://www.weather.gov/buf/wintersummary0607 THE WINTER OF 2006-07 WAS CERTAINLY A UNIQUE ONE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. IT WAS BRACKETED BY EXTREME EVENTS IN OCTOBER AND APRIL...BUT GENERALLY STARTED VERY LATE BUT ENDED RELUCTANTLY. IT WILL BE REMEMBERED FOR THE FREAK OCTOBER LAKE SNOW WHICH CRIPPLED THE BUFFALO AREA...BUT NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER WERE AMONG THE WARMEST IN HISTORY AND LITTLE COLD OR SNOW WAS EVIDENT ANYWHERE UNTIL MID JANUARY. BUT A HARSH 6 TO 8 WEEK PERIOD FOLLOWED WHICH INCLUDED THE COLDEST FEBRUARY IN 28 YEARS. SPRING TEASED US IN LATE MARCH BEFORE UNUSUAL COLD AND SNOW RETURNED FOR MUCH OF APRIL. REAL SPRING FINALLY ARRIVED IN LATE APRIL AND HAS CONTINUED INTO A VERY PLEASANT MAY. WINTER AS A WHOLE THOUGH WAS SOMEWHAT MILD WITH NEAR NORMAL SNOWFALL.

The guy I directly work with has covid pretty bad. 2 shots of pfizer no booster. I am shocked I did not get it this time. We spend many hours within feet of each other all week. Maybe I have it now, didn't get tested because of no symptoms.

The last 2 weeks of January bring back a similar pattern to what we have now but thats way out there, not worth looking at.

Weeklies are usually only good for 2-3 weeks out but here are the Euro weeklies from today. The Euro has been the best long range model by quite a bit. This is for first 2 weeks of January.

The weeklies settle the PV into Hudson Bay.