BuffaloWeather
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Everything posted by BuffaloWeather
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from Tom niziol Lake-effect snow event for Tug Hill off Lake Ontario coming up Sun PM thru Mon PM. Could see 2+ feet snowfall. Ridiculous lapse rate on NAM forecast sounding at 51-hr. -
I agree with this, that's the only thing I'm worried about for Pulaski itself. The band always gets "stuck" up in redfield but sometimes the portion closer to the lake can slide south a few miles.
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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
BuffaloWeather replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I have a great plan for playoffs. I'm going to bet in favor of the team playing the Bills. That way its a win/win, the Bills win and get closer to superbowl or I make a bunch of money! -
The medium to long range is about the best you can ask for for Upstate. I mean look at this, ridging in the west and good NAO blocking with the PV north of Hudson Bay to provide consistent cold air. It doesn't get any better than that, especially for Ontario posters as in this type of pattern Lake Erie will be mainly frozen by start of February, we have about a month left of Lake effect potential off Erie. Off to play ice hockey, will be a fun next few weeks!
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Beautiful wintertime walk today. Ben loves the snow. Testing him out for some long winter walks before we attempt an Adirondack hike in winter together.
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That looks good enough for it’s own thread. Be my guest to create as you’re in the jackpot zone.
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Yeah I've been in the transition zone so far this year too. Decent event to my south and big event to my north.
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Someone between Fulton-Syracuse-Pulaski into southern Redfield gets 2' from next one.
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Going to be a beautiful 3 lake connection band going
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Just looking at the setup, I'd be surprised if wolf didn't get at least a foot out of next event. Even if winds change quickly that band is going to be 2-3" per easily. Only thing I'd be worried about is inland extent via the higher winds.
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The NAM was the best model for the last LES event off Erie, took RGEM a few runs to catch up to it. A combo of NAM/RGEM within 48 hours is usually a solid bet.
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Tughill has jackpotted 2-3 times this winter so far, hes not allowed to complain for at least 2 weeks.
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Its close enough to start taking seriously. KBUF mentions 2'+ off Ontario. Can almost guarentee Carol gets 2' of snow off this.
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Yeah I agree with this 1/2" of ice is quite a bit. 1" + is massive damage. We used to have a lot of ice storms growing up, I know most don't like them but they're my favorite.
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GEFS have a good pattern starting 1/16 to end of run with piece of PV N/NNE of Hudson bay.
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Looks like Sunday night-Tuesday will be our last winter weather until sometime after next weekend. Weds-Sun look slightly above normal for temps. After this time period the long range ENS show a great pattern, still pretty far out though.
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9 degrees in my car this morning, easy pass.
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Probably start posting here for now until another thread worthy event pops up. We will create individual threads for big LES/Synoptic events and post here for general weather discussion. Still looks good for wolf
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Yeah Buffalo gets its seasonal totals with 1-2 big events like we saw yesterday. Rochester is synoptic/lake enhanced but what makes them get more than Buffalo yearly is the teakettle events off Ontario, they really add up quick with high ratios. Syracuse is a better location for synoptic being closer to the east coast storms and the recording station being north Syracuse they do well with NW flow events when it hits them.
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There is a poster in Vermont who sometimes gets even higher ratios than we do off the lakes. I think its Jspin. I've seen him post 1:50 many times, I wonder what his record is 1:60?
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Same. I also like the app on the apple store called "MyRadar". It shows Canadian radar and the entire great lakes in one loop. You're able to see upstream trends, wind direction, and moisture that radarscope doesn't allow. I highly recommend everyone to download as it provides things that radarscope cannot.
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Nov 2014 had cloud tops at 20k feet, definitely not normal for a LES event. It's more common to get higher cloud tops in early season events as the temperature disparity is greater early on.
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Wind shear
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NW flow events are often 25-35:1 as predominant temps during NW flow events are colder than W/SW flow events. W/SW flow events average around 1:18-1:22 on average. I saw an event last year where Rochester got 1:43 ratios with pure fluff bombs.
