SomeguyfromTakomaPark

That death band south of DC looks nice....so cruel.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

No it’s not.  I can see it moved north of me and still going north unless I am seeing things.  You are practically due east of me.  You should get some flakes.  

I hope you’re right but it looks like it’s dead stopped on the last few frames of radarscope. 

Northward progress is about done, enjoy it southern folks. 

Not kidding but last frame of the radar looks like northern progress stopped.  DC snow shield. 

According to my RadarScope calculations it has pushed approximately 5 miles north in the last half hour.  

I’ll tell you what, if we can get a decent storm in January or early February I’ll be able to forgive Mother Nature for this.  But if this season is like last year where the only storm we get is in march when it’s 33 degrees and the sun is vaporizing my snow into a disgusting compacted mess before it even stops snowing...I’m gonna lose it.  

This shows it really nicely....

The euro has the 0.2 line less than 40 miles from DC and the 0.6 line is approximately 75 miles from DC.  

UKMET with a decent bump north.  DC in the 2.5-5mm range now, with the 5mm line not that far away.

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's likely going to do its final 48 north push and that's why if it was still looking like a central VA Jack I would have felt good...but it went south on guidance so much that this is a bit much to expect. We're kind of in the same spot we were the last two years and it trended close enough to tease us at the very end. Weirder things have happened though so I'll be watching too with one eye at least. 

Yeah this feels pretty similar to the Jan 17 southern slider, except not as cold up here. 

1 minute ago, yoda said:

 

lol

These both can be true.  The precip may have bumped north a little but the low is still way south of where we need it to be.

1 minute ago, Snowchaser said:

hows the euro looking guys?

997 low squashed south of where we need it to be at 96.  

UKMET offers us nothing, low goes from the panhandle of Florida at 72 to halfway between the east coast and Bermuda at 96. 

GFS also with a minor adjustment north, looks like the SS s/w amped heights up a little more and cancelled out the fact that the dumb clipper/confluence/whatever over Canada. 

1 minute ago, KingJWx said:

On the 12z ICON, precip makes it up to CHO and EZF

Yeah it actually bumped about 50ish miles north of its previous run.  

Yeah that initial piece over Maine got out of the way a little faster but that large blob over Canada looks the same

Just now, yoda said:

Doesn't look like it through 78 with snow way down in S VA lol

Let's see if the ICON can lead the way to some positive changes...SS s/w a touch slower and confluence over New England a touch further NE through 66.

96 is better, sharper trough, looks like the confluence is moving out of the way a bit.

UKMET is out to sea and it doesn't  look close. 

Just now, showmethesnow said:

CMC is pretty much what I discussed this morning in my long a** post. 

CMC looks like a similar track to a lot of those left-leaning EPS tracks.  

ICON coming in more suppressed with the initial part of the storm due to stronger confluence, but also appears there is a little more northern stream energy on the backside of the trough, so perhaps that would help with a later phase. 

this is rather interesting....

Period of interest for this storm on the Euro keeps extending further into next week.  Initially we were thinking Saturday/Sunday, then it was Sunday/Monday, now it has precipitation hanging around our area til 3pm Monday.   Just another indication that many of details are not worked out yet. 

More precip in the TN valley at 126, trough is almost negative, maybe it comes up the coast?

Sort of trying for a late phase maybe?