SomeguyfromTakomaPark

6z Euro should be coming out around now,

right?  Around 2 hours after GFS...

Funny how the Euro and the GFS have traded places in 24 hours.  Euro gives us breathing room with advisory snows well to our north, GFS nasomuch.  

If this keeps trending it would be a pretty nice win for the GFS to have sniffed it out first. 

6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON is southern slider.  Dusting to DC.  SW VA over to Richmond a general 2-4.  I don't have H5 out that far yet but it looked more consolidated early on as DC said.

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Icon is a disaster for everyone.  Hopefully it’s wrong. 

Yeah, ends up awful even though I thought the H5 look was a little improved, there were higher heights out in front that didn't end up mattering. 

Confluence to the NE looks a little less suppressive and the southern s/w looks a little more consolidated through 84 on the ICON...

11 minutes ago, mappy said:

LWX seems to think some accumulating snow is possible, even if not warning level criteria. not sure what your definition of "great" is, but the area hasn't seen snow in almost 2 months, I think most would take even just a dusting at this point. 

Yeah, dusting to an inch on some cold surfaces would be fine.  Anything to get us on the board for now.  

3 minutes ago, The_Global_Warmer said:

It's not that.  

 

Just massive changes over SE Canada in the mid levels.

 

Like pretty amazing how big for 5 days out. 

Yeah I guess this could be related to the fact that the model is running on its own without anyone monitoring the data as that Washington post article said. 

The good thing is even the Euro gives us some snow,  Even an inch of snow would be a win.  It we could get this to amplify a tiny bit and get 2-4 that would be awesome. 

Major changes at 500, caves to the Euro.  No surprises there. 

GFS has single digits Sunday night and 20s for Monday.  It would certainly have that arctic tundra feel that we haven't had in a while. 

Temps in the 20s throughout....wow what a run.

20 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Gefs look pretty good. Better timing of s/w not to deep into the nw flow which allows for better hgt rises. 24hr qpf mean off gefs 

Wow, very nice look, scoring on the front end of a pattern flip would be awesome. 

It would be nice if this is correct to and we get the AO on our side 

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a raging -nao next week. The runs that create the storm simply do it by timing up a storm with a flexing of that block. The 6z gfs has a mini vortex spinning under the block in the 50/50 position which forces the system under us even though it's starting out way north of ideal out west. Can that work?  It has but it's rare. It requires perfect timing because the upstream longwave pattern sucks. The system has to eject at a point when we have a perfect setup downstream to force it under. Absent that it will cut.  It's possible. With that nao it's not some long range crazy fabrication but it's low probability for sure. 

It is interesting though because although not identical, both the Euro and GFS show a similar evolution that get us some frozen.  First time in a long time that ops are keying on a discrete threat.

And the fantasy land storms begin...FV3 is straight porn for New Years. 

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Anyone writing off the winter at this juncture (hi EJ) is just being silly. The MJO has temporarily screwed things up a bit, but even without that there were mixed signals for Dec. The Nino was a late developer, and NA blocking is favored during the back half of winter during a Nino regardless. I would be surprised if we don't have a generally favorable pattern for mid Jan through early March.

Absolutely, we almost never have a winter with a favorable pattern throughout.  IMO I'd rather get this unfavorable trash out of the way now, since this isn't our best snow climo anyway. 

Man, we are really maxing our locally with this one.  Radar lighting up over us again. 

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

1.73"

My basement window well flooded, which has only ever happened when that kind of rain happens in an hour or two, not 48 hours.

My back yard, I think I saw fish swimming around

Yeah, my basement flooded as if there had been more than 2-3 inches of rain.  I’m guessing the water table is still pretty high despite the 10 days of preceding dryness. 

63+ inches of precipitation and less than 1 inch of that was frozen. 

Basement flooding for like the 5th time this year....enough already

Watching the radar light up over us and seeing the breeze kick up as the upper low passes....just wish we had some cold around. 

Today brought us all one step closer...cmon! Missing a foot of snow in early December 75 miles to our south...wow. 

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

10.5" at UVA per the people I've pestered into measuring for me. 

Can't believe I wasn't there!

And it’s still ripping 

Looks like another push north starting, maybe DC can grab a quick coating.