SomeguyfromTakomaPark

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

1-3 of snow that sticks is better than our 60th rainstorm in a row...so I’m not mad at this. 

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Shouldn't even be posting ens output anymore but this is the first gefs with little spread. Noticeable improvement from 12z. Looks like we're locking in 2-6" areawide with some 6+ jacks for some lucky folks

Not a lot of disasters in there either.  90% of those would make most of us pretty happy. 

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I'm confused as to why DC would experience any UHI effect in this scenario given temps in the mid-20s? Why would that limit our snow total?

It shouldn’t substantially. 

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

 

If it plays out this way this is a pretty big bust for the GFS/GEFS.  They were spitting out weenie runs until 6z today.  I guess maybe the fact that no one is calibrating/checking data had an impact. 

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So I mean...We haven't deviated much from the general 2-4" that been the forecast all week, right? If that is still the most likely solution, we oughta count anything else as a bonus!

 Yeah, and if 12z today puts the nail in the coffin on a warming event I’d rather know sooner than later.  Still somewhat encouraging the EPS hasn’t given up on the coastal completely yet. 

More strung out at hour 66, wouldn't think this will end up as good with the coastal but you never know.

4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I'm not sure who is saying that on phillywx -- 06z Euro, out to hr90 (00z Monday) gives DC close to 3"

So about the same as 0z, still a decent light event. 

Seeing on phillywx the 6z Euro not as good for that area, not sure what it means for us. 

37 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

1” line definitely further north. Would be curious to see if that’s all snow, though.

It is all snow, good CCB action. 

GFS - 6-8

EURO - 2-4

CMC - 6-8

UK - 4-6

ICON - 2-4

EPS - 2-4 

GEFS - 3-6

Am I missing anything?  Seems like we’re locked in for at least a light event. 

30 minutes ago, nj2va said:

18z Euro through 90 (end of run); storm is still going so these aren't storm totals.  2-4" for NOVA/DC/Central MD.  1-2" for NE MD and Eastern Shore.   Mixing for RIC as the surface and 850 lines are just northwest of RIC by 90H.  All snow everywhere north/west of that.

eta:  H96 at 12z had the 2" line SW of DC so an improvement for NOVA/DC/Balt.

That’s only 12z Sunday, anything from the coastal would be after that you’d think...

It looked a lot more like the good runs from yesterday early, but then struck out on the WAA snows. Still a light event from the coastal. 

Wow big hit, 0.75 for DC.  

7 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

From LWX:

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday into Sunday, an upper level trough will move through the 
midwest on Saturday and shift eastward toward the mid-Atlantic 
region. A surface low pressure system associated with this upper 
level feature will form over Texas and make its way eastward. The 
models are disagreeing on the exact track that this surface low will 
take this weekend. The European tracks the low up through the 
Tennessee River Valley and up through the mid-Atlantic. The Euro 
solution is furthest north then the 12Z GFS and Canadian models. 
The 12Z GFS model run moves the surface low further southward and 
tracks through Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. This solution 
would bring snow too the Carolinas and northward through southern 
PA. The 12Z Canadian splits the European and GFS solutions by 
running the low up through north Carolina. These solutions all agree 
the region will see some snow this weekend starting sometime late 
Saturday morning and continue through Sunday. It is to early to 
really tell how much snow will occur but there is upwards potential 
depending whether the models track further northward. Cold air 
shouldn't be problem since all models agree that surface 
temperatures during the day will be near or below freezing with 
overnight temperatures in the teens and 20s.

There are at least 5 typos/grammar errors in that.  I know they're working without pay over there but still...

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is actually just about the perfect map IMO. No sharp cutoffs around our area. 

Just now, osfan24 said:

There's actually a fair amount of big hitters though. Obviously not the most likely scenario, but there are four big hits among the GEFS and some that are either close or pretty solid hits.

And 13/20 get us to 2+ inches in DC, so at least we're not staring at a bunch of complete misses. 

Just now, yoda said:

Tough to tell with all the shades of blue but it looks like 5-6 for DC proper and a good portion of the CWA.  Like the look a lot. 

CMC is also a nudge NW with the QPF.  So far the 12z suite is unanimous with 3-4 inches falling in DC proper.

Total precip map is a nice jump north on par with the ICON.  0.5 makes it to DC. 

Definitely an improvement from 6z in terms of the QPF, not as good as the big runs yesterday but definitely not another step back. 

ICON is a decent shift north.   0.5 QPF almost to DC. 

Just now, Chris78 said:

I like that the .25 line is well up, into pa. Gives us some breathing room for atleast a minor event.

Yeah I like that too.  A 2-4 inch storm with cold temps and decent ratios is where I'm setting my bar for this one.  

3 minutes ago, frd said:

Pretty significant drop from yesterday 12z when the 0.5 line was up near PA but still keeps us in the game for a light/moderate event. 

A good 6z EPS run would calm a lot of nerves around here.

5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It certainly bears some resemblance. The NS energy and associated confluence has always been a player for this event. One other feature that has been shifting over the last few runs of the GFS is the western ridge position/amplification. Less amplitude esp on the 6z run and the southern wave doesn't get as much dig in the lower MS Valley.

The good thing with this storm is the northern edge, as modeled, is significantly further north and puts us in the game for at least a light event.  With the December storm at this range we were not really modeled to get anything.