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griteater

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  1. griteater
    In cases like this where the only warm layer is right at the surface, this is what I've used/observed in the past... If surface wet-bulb temperature is... 32: Snow 33-34: Snow or Rain/Snow Mix 35: Rain/Snow mix 36-37: Rain or Rain/Snow mix
  2. griteater
    IMO, this is going to continue to tick more amped with more precip inland. I'm just basing it on how it's trending with the wave/trough and sfc low positioning, and how these tend to work with the modeling. I think we would have seen it back off with the 12z runs if we were moving to a weaker solution. Looks good to me in the mtns. East of there it will take some heavy temperature analysis to determine locales with snow.
  3. griteater
    It's banging on the heavy rates scouring out the low level warmth. Tough forecast.
  4. griteater
    Euro looks like a light snow event for the mtns and foothills..into far NE GA...storm is slow to depart...some snow mixed in east of there probably
  5. griteater
    Euro is a little farther inland with precip....and a little warmer
  6. griteater
    Early 12z UKMet looks similar to GFS & CMC...detailed maps later
  7. griteater
    After the sounding comes up, there is a dropdown at the top center of the page for Hr - so you can change the forecast hour there. At top right, there's a dropdown for map where you can view the map and choose another location for the next sounding
  8. griteater
    GFS out to 81...overall it's slightly more precip / slightly warmer
  9. griteater
    GFS out to 69, it looks like it's going to take a baby step toward more precip
  10. griteater
    GFS out to 57 - it's bending the heights back to the SW more this run so it should be a little slower with the storm....but it may have trouble sharpening the base of the trough
  11. griteater
    No way the GFS will come in way amped, but maybe it takes a baby step
  12. griteater
    You can just click on the map on pivotal weather and get the soundings as the maps come out. Same with the College of Dupage models, but for some reason I was having trouble with the NAM soundings. Tropical Tidbits has it too, but not for the NAM (no idea why) http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017120506&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=
  13. griteater
    As others have mentioned, the upper jet structure is good here (right entrance region of jet over the northeast)...that should allow for precip to expand back to the west. Models are notorious for being too skimpy on the NW side of Miller A's....should see the precip expand back to the NW with that kind of jet structure
  14. griteater
    The NAM looks too amped at the base of the trough, but I like a toned down version of this...but with precip getting back into E Tennessee
  15. griteater
    It's kind of how I've been envisioning this system, but we'll see what the other models say when they come in
  16. griteater
    NAM = que the Fred Sanford holding the heart pic
  17. griteater
    Outside of the mountains, quicker is not the trend we want to see from a temperature standpoint
  18. griteater
    UKMet looks a little faster and slightly less amped to me compared to last run...hard to tell on the precip...detailed maps come out later.
  19. griteater
  20. griteater
    CMC looks a little quicker with the storm this run...has some light snow in north GA to upstate to parts of central, then western NC....not a lot of precip thrown back west into the cold air
  21. griteater
    Some light snows before precip ends from Raleigh north to Chesapeake
  22. griteater
    Need to see what the UKMet says for trend clues
  23. griteater
    Looking like GFS is going to be an eastern scraper again
  24. griteater
    GFS out to 69 - just minor differences, but it looks a whole like the prior run to this point
  25. griteater
    GFS out to 45 - western ridge is a little taller
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