griteater
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An alternate view of the lack of steering flow (this is 500mb GFS forecast at 6z Sun) - click link for motion - https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/09/16/0600Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-82.92,43.14,667/loc=0.607,24.216
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National Hurricane Center TAFB - "Wave heights to 83 ft were measured early this morning under the NE quadrant of Hurricane Florence." https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1039882107399622657
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GFS Ensemble Trend Loop - strengthening anomaly centers with the trough off Pacific NW coast and ridge over the Great Lakes....so the trend is for more blocking and less steering flow, making the stall scenario as it approaches the coast more and more likely.
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A couple examples of interest Hurricane 5 in 1906 Hurricane 4 in 1913 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_Atlantic_hurricane_season https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1913_Atlantic_hurricane_season
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The modeling is fairly consistent with bringing it into or near the coast in SE NC. After that, with the Euro Ensemble members continuing to trend south over South Carolina (only 1 of the 51 members is now north of Columbia), IMO we are going to see the other modeling this morning continue to move south after the initial approach into SE NC.
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Euro Ensemble is south again. Phil has a trend loop here - https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1039796190819188736
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UKMet is Wilmington area (hr72) to Myrtle Beach area (96) to west of Clemson (120) to E Ohio (144)
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UKMet has now moved south. At hr72 it is in Wilmington area. At hr120 it looks like it is west of Clemson, SC, near GA/NC/SC triple point. Those are the only 2 hours I have, which I know is weird (still coming in)
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Higher uncertainty given the stall and crawl scenario, but the Euro Ensembles moving south last night and holding today (along with the FV3), taking the system into SC, is pretty telling IMO
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A related post on this - https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51511-hurricane-florence/?do=findComment&comment=4986166
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It goes both ways though. If the latest Euro and FV3 are correct, Raleigh NWS will have to change their maps
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Euro has it slowly moving inland across southern SC Sun morning
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At hr111, Euro has drifted SW to Charleston area
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Euro would be epic flooding in SE NC
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Euro has it still stuck on Wilmington....24 hours now from Thurs night to Fri night....now drifting off the coast due south of Wilmington at hr96.
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Euro is a bad look for SE NC coast. It hasn't moved from hr66 to 81...looks bad for rain, surge, wind there from Wilmington to Topsail, up to Emerald Isle
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At 69-72, it's stalled for the moment with the center just north of Wilmington
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Euro out to 66 - it's a touch slower this run and a touch north...center looks close to Topsail Island
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Euro run looks very similar so far out to hr27
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It's wild to think that it has taken this long, but it's great to now see the hurricane center watch/warning products shown inland as opposed to just at the coast
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Here's the 500mb trend on the Euro Ensemble near landfall time. The anomaly centers in 1) W Alaska, 2) off Pac NW coast, and 3) in SE Canada have sharpened over time....so, after the hurricane leaves the steering influence of the Bermuda High, it's getting stuck in the Carolinas underneath the increasingly more amplified eastern U.S. ridge.
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Looks like the UKMet brings it into Morehead City area (hr72), then into E NC (hr96), then SW to Greenville, SC (hr120)
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CMC has shifted south a bit too from prev run
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GFS out to 48, it looks like it is heading roughly toward the NC/SC border
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GFS is still south out to hr39
