The Waterboy

14” in Bentonville. Wow…

15z RAP drops between 0.75 to 1” QPF in a swath from far SE KS, NE OK, SW MO, into NW AR. Wichita NWS mentions ratios 18:1 - 20:1.

Models are locked into a major event for pretty much everybody NE of OKC. Still some interesting differences in the heaviest bands which will be almost impossible to predict in advance. Tulsa, Wichita, Joplin, Springfield, Bentonville all look like the potential bullseye areas. The NAM continues to be the outlier and it hasn’t been great for the entire storm.

RDPS and ICON smash NE OK and NW AR.

Yes we are. I’m not convinced it’s right. Way too much sleet to start. 18z RDPS going to look good for us which is the trend we want to see continue. EDIT: Looks like the ICON will be solid too.

NAM still continues to be the overall outlier compared to pretty much every other model. Let’s hope it’s wrong.

18z ICON continues to be a solid hit for us.

I remember the good old days of TWC as well. I used to have a NOAA radar detector that would play a recorded forecast from NWS Tulsa. It would update around lunchtime every day. As Nate Bargatze says - I’m from the 1900’s. Bottom line in this reminiscing is: Some of us (me included) are getting old! If you younger folks don’t know what we’re talking about, enjoy your youth!!!

Same for me in Bentonville. We got 4” after 10:30 last night. Just measured between 6-7” total.

Probably so. Just stating it’s been interesting to have light, but steady flakes since about 5:00. Nothing really heavy. I still think 5-6” is very doable. Sounds like some areas around Fort Smith and south will hit a foot or more. I also think Muskogee/Tahlequah also has some juicy totals when it’s all over.

I’m around 2” in Bentonville. Benton/Washington Counties have been in the lightest radar echos pretty much the entire event. The heavier stuff east of Tulsa never shifts to the east.

Yes we do! Fingers crossed.

How is it that NWA gets stuck in the middle of the dry air donut hole??? Ugh!!!

The NAM was an absolute smash!!!

Looks like 18z high-res Canadian shifted NW ever so slightly which increases totals for pretty much everybody.

12z Canadian stays the course which is nice to see. Very similar to its 12z run yesterday and more robust than the 00z last night.

And right on cue the NW shifts comes…

12z Canadian has a nasty ice storm next Monday/Tuesday. Yikes!!!

The radar west of OKC looks good. Let’s get a few inches and enjoy all the hard work we’ve put into this!!!

I nominate Flizzard for team captain!

Well, it seems that apathy and numbness are setting in with most of us, me included. Does anyone have a good pregame speech to rally the team???

NWS Tulsa just issued a Winter Storm Watch for a lot of us in NEOK and NWAR. Doesn’t include Metro Tulsa at this time. WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind chills possible. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Well, the Euro sucks again.

We just had a gnarly thunderstorm come through Bentonville. Pea sized hail and I’d estimate wind gusts of at least 50mph if not 60.

18z GFS and ICON were both better than I expected after the Euro debacle. We’ll take it for now. I know there’s a lot of talk about suppression pushing it further south. Maybe this does the typical model NW shift??? Although that seems to happen more with cutters. Overall happy to see models hold steady-ish and give a middle finger to the Euro.