.jpeg.302c67143ea75c332053973bc310ec90.jpeg)
kazimirkai
-
Posts
137 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by kazimirkai
-
Can somebody explain the extreme forecast index please? What is a shift of tails?
-
.thumb.jpeg.406ecda2eec9e267302c22b9f128fe3c.jpeg)
I'm in the 60% on this map. Hope it validates -
12z GFS OP low compared to GEFS 12z and EPS 0z with storm timing lined up (EPS has it abt 12 hrs slower than GEFS).
-
I wonder what this map would look like in kuchera
-
same
-
The two ensembles appear to be nearing a consensus about the general idea of the 7th storm which is comforting at least.
-
Same boat here: 3" with the gfs, 17" with the euro. Id honestly even be happy with 3 though I'm starving for snow
-
Well I guess I just would have assumed the operational run would always be one of those roughly in the middle of all the ensemble members as opposed to one of the those skirting the edge of the distribution.
-
Well I was referring explicitly to the 5th storm. The majority of the high snowfall amounts on some of these members result from the 7th storm which I figure is the better one anyways.
-
It seems like the latest ensemble runs don't have hardly any members close enough to the coast to provide any sizeable precipitation even if it was in the form of snow. The best chance for anything around that time is probably some lingering inland snow from a weak low pressure near the st Lawrence valley before the energy transfers to the coastal low.
-
It is interesting though how on the 7ths storm neither the 12z euro deterministic or the 18z gfs deterministic are anywhere near their the center of their respective ensemble mean counterparts. Why doesn't the model default to deterministics that are more representative of the ensemble mean? I'm looking at hr 204 btw.
-
Yeah fr. I get a piece of every storm and cutter on that run and end up with 13". Oh what a dream that would be
-
You said it man. A lot of people around me are saying things like "why doesn't it snow anymore?" or "remember when it used to snow before global warming?" I don't really know what to say because I don't honestly know how much this snow drought over the past 5 years has to due with climate change compared to a regular period of variation. What do you guys think?
-
Thoughts on this map? I assume the slight risk over the Appalachians is regarding the 7th storm since the 5th isn't within the specified range.
-
Jesus where are all the fun colors? So unappealing lol
-
Seems like you could be right abt that. Latest gfs puts the 5th storm a bit farther north (not enough to do anything but a nice trend) and the 8th storm has a slightly colder albeit weaker solution. Guess well have to wait and see
-
It's not unreasonable to think that there was a time when it was normal. Of course I wasn't alive from the late 50s through the late 60s but from what I read those were some wintry winters.
-
Both 2013-2014, 2020-2021, and 2016-2017 gave me at least a month full of snow cover. That's about the best I can remember. Haven't seen a wall-to-wall good winter since 13/14 though. The Hudson river froze enough for ice boat races to take place.
-
Well 15 years ago I could barely compose a coherent sentence. Maybe I'm spoiled with modern guidance technology. Just for clarity, I assume climo stands for climatology?
-
Why must they be? Surely there can be some way to correct and adjust them based on historical analogs like professionals do. Are analogs thought to be less valued in the future with such an unpredictably changing climate?
-
Dam you were accurate enough back then. Why does it take the models until now to realize it? Just to display ensembles with cold (not frigid but "workable" as folks say) and the odd deterministic with reasonable nor'easters only to cave to your prediction in the end?
-
Funny snowfall map. Storm takes one look at New York and goes "nah"
-
I mean there was no snow but it really wasn't absurdly warm for most of the month. A few days ago I clocked about 10 degrees which is a pretty run of the mill minimum low for December. I guess these days I really don't expect winter to arrive until January so I wasn't disappointed much, especially given the euro's unambitious outlook early-on.
-
I know this map isn't the most up to date but it seems like we haven't gotten the worst of it in the northeast
-
Snowfall to date. Looking back at maps from the same date in other years, it seems like there hasn't been a winter this inactive across the country since 2015-2016.
