Scott747

Latest NOAA pass confirms that the pressure is in the low to mid 940's. Definitely a remarkable drop overnight.

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 954 mb (28.17 inches). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect this change and update the forecast. SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

The eye is certainly clearing out but calling it a pinhole already is a little premature.

So far it has been relatively free from a bunch of non-sense, but we're close enough out from landfall of a probable major that anyone can get one going.

All four of the hurricane models show a cat 4 landfall just s of Tallahassee with 3 of them putting it pretty much in the eyewall/eye, and considering the speed it will be moving of at least an upper end 3 if not still a 4.

Definite filth on the 18z GFS. TS winds from Galveston to New Orleans. Hurricane gusts from the Golden Triangle to Houma. Still grain of salt type of run that far out.

Last hour I've been around sustained 20 with a few gusts over TS force. Surely they upgrade chances at the next TWO. Not sure if it warrants a PTC but can't be that far off even if it's only in a 12-18 hr window.

Thought it was a long shot but just offshore of Galveston/Freeport is looking interesting this morning.

This has way over preformed expectations. I recorded a 81 mph gust right as I lost power. Been in the ne eyewall for a solid hour. Damage in the southern part of Brazoria might surprise some folks. It certainly hasn't felt like a borderline cat 1.

He and the SCW crew took a hit with their rep after the derecho. And been downplaying any threat with Beryl and now backtracking...

12z Euro says to buckle up.

Quite the shift in track with the latest advisory. Across South Padre e of Port Isabel and then just s of Port Mansfield.

The jargon/slang/baby talk or whatever you want to call it is becoming tedious....

First forecast should be out in about an hour. Either way at a minimum the swells will make the ride a bit bumpy. Compact nature may mitigate it somewhat.

At least compared to the HWRF/HMON the HAFS was about 15% better on track while it was in the experimental phase the last few years and only expected to improve. So any shifts they show should be noteworthy.

While the thread isn't in 'storm mode' there definitely needs to be a little more constructive posting that's storm specific. Also over the next few days as Lee is producing some eye candy refrain from quoting any imagery with one liners. Chances are it's going to be deleted. All it does is clog up the thread.

We're at the point leading up to landfall that if it isn't some solid analysis or discussion then expect that the posts will be removed. Chit chat, predictions, one word responses etc. should go into banter.

Those posts have gone away because it's the same schtick as it always is. In a nutshell that poster has cancelled the rest of August and September. Also October will be cancelled along with 2024, 2025 and beyond.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 3. Western Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally westward, potentially nearing the western Gulf of Mexico coastline in about a week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

In what is potentially shaping up to be a boring and below average year... We don't need your same schtick telling us it's going to be a boring and below average year.

Should be taking off soon and making a pass or two before this afternoon's package.

Take the NAM disco to banter.

About a 2-3 mb pressure drop on latest fix. Official upgrade won't be till the next update in an hour or so.

Looks like it has been upgraded in the database...

Could be one of those 'bombs away' kinda night.