Scott747

Well then... Can't say I Google members names but that's pretty effed up. I can't do anything but remove/hide his posts and will do so until he explains himself to someone with a higher pay grade. In the meantime report his posts that get by until they make a decision.

Because this isn't S2K. So keep it over there. You posted a bunch of S2k crap about a ridiculous low off of Florida earlier this week that had to be cleaned up. Patience is wearing thin...

My point is the idea that the Gulf or Caribbean is some sort of escalated threat because they haven't been 'touched' or active so far. It's almost always supportive (when it comes to sst's/ohc) throughout the season regardless of activity.

This could be the most overplayed and tiring argument year after year when it comes to ssts/ohc and the potential. When it comes to the 'waters' the GoM and NW Caribbean are generally always supportive of not only tropical formation but intense storms throughout the season. I

It will be another week before you should even begin to worry about what the models are showing...

It's in the middle of an erc so nailing the center is a little tricky and there can be wide variations on the pressure readings. Especially with the gradient that Milton has shown. Another recon is already nearing the storm.

Damn. What a gradient. Looks like it might be below 910 this pass.

As the thread starts heating up again try not quoting any imagery with quick reactions. If your commenting and contributing to some meaningful type of analysis, then fine. Otherwise it's going to disappear. There is already enough scrolling as it is.

We don't normally do this but we're at a point that even with a not particularly large Florida contingent here... There probably needs to be a dedicated thread for local impacts, warnings etc. independent of this and the banter thread. There will be some good info that will quickly be lost like was shared on the last page or two.

That imagery is starting to get some Haiyan vibes. Effing crazy.

Expect another special advisory.

939 on the NOAA pass.

941 on the latest pass. Still dropping like a rock.

Nasty gradient on the way in for the latest eye penetration.

That's from about 30 min ago. AF309 will be making a new pass in about 15 min.

Eye down to 10 mi. I'd guess we might get pressure down into the upper 930's on one of the upcoming passes.

Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of 120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours. The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan, and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion. The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Latest NOAA pass confirms that the pressure is in the low to mid 940's. Definitely a remarkable drop overnight.

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 954 mb (28.17 inches). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect this change and update the forecast. SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

The eye is certainly clearing out but calling it a pinhole already is a little premature.

So far it has been relatively free from a bunch of non-sense, but we're close enough out from landfall of a probable major that anyone can get one going.

All four of the hurricane models show a cat 4 landfall just s of Tallahassee with 3 of them putting it pretty much in the eyewall/eye, and considering the speed it will be moving of at least an upper end 3 if not still a 4.

Definite filth on the 18z GFS. TS winds from Galveston to New Orleans. Hurricane gusts from the Golden Triangle to Houma. Still grain of salt type of run that far out.

Last hour I've been around sustained 20 with a few gusts over TS force. Surely they upgrade chances at the next TWO. Not sure if it warrants a PTC but can't be that far off even if it's only in a 12-18 hr window.