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Scott747

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Everything posted by Scott747

  1. Scott747
    This has more of an Allison feel as opposed to Harvey.
  2. Scott747
    If it starts deepening into daybreak then it may be onto something...
  3. Scott747
    HAFS-A goes NAM into landfall. 14 mb drop the last 3 hrs....
  4. Scott747
    Hey at least it's a chasable track now. 82 between Port Arthur and Holly Beach has a couple of bridges to take refuge on with a weaker storm like this when surge comes in. Of course they are teasing you with the hurricane watch not to mention recon with the 'eyewall beginning to form.
  5. Scott747
    Satellite imagery looks horrible. Radar at least shows some banding on the northern side but overall the southern side looks devoid of much right now.
  6. Scott747
    Would need to come in around Port Arthur. There's literally nothing between High Island and there besides a little of 87 into Sea Rim Park.
  7. Scott747
    Outlook does imply they may bypass a PTC and go straight to a TS watch/warning at 10 or 5. Makes sense with the blowup this evening and better model support. Looks to be on track between High Island and Cameron for the watch/warning. Might extend down to Galveston.
  8. Scott747
    This close to land and landfall? Pretty high. Just need a few reliable obs. Does appear there is a good circulation but most of the day it had no real convective activity around it. I'd still guess without recon in there they will go PTC first and full upgrade in the morning unless it goes bonkers tonight.
  9. Scott747
    Doubt they would do a special for a PTC. Could get a hint that one is coming with the update at 7 and going red.
  10. Scott747
    NHC is still old school and likes the 10 pm news cycle on a Sunday night so I'd be surprised if they didn't designate a PTC or even straight to depression at 10. Weekday and this might have been a PTC at 5, although it still seemed a little early this afternoon with the lack of storms around the center.
  11. Scott747
    Slow season is getting to you I see....
  12. Scott747
    This is total bs. You won't find one video of any chaser standing directly in legit sustained major hurricane/typhoon winds.
  13. Scott747
    Not going to lie. In all these years I've never been worried about Josh. A few when he has relocated to at the last minute to some spots that weren't previously scouted. This one I'm on edge. Little nervous about the elevation....
  14. Scott747
    Josh is pretty much locked in. Structure he's in looks to be sound and thick concrete reinforced. Crazy to still be able to communicate with him....
  15. Scott747
    Imminent reading coming up from the second recon mission. Not surprising but the gradient is insane.
  16. Scott747
    Second recon circled while the first one spent extra time in the eye. Now looks to be heading in for a fix before landfall.
  17. Scott747
    There are a few alternatives if adjustments are needed. This is a different animal though...
  18. Scott747
    He won't reveal his final location until after the storm.
  19. Scott747
    Second recon is booking it. Might get there before landfall. First one spent extra time in the eye so it might be tight for it to make another pass.
  20. Scott747
    893 ish extrapolated
  21. Scott747
    Should get a reading from recon shortly and then at least one more. Second mission is on the way but could be tight in getting there before landfall.
  22. Scott747
    Recon is gonna find a sub 900 storm.
  23. Scott747
    Intermediate at 2 eastern 1 central
  24. Scott747
    It isn't updating because there isn't a new cone....
  25. Scott747
    6z HAFS-B isn't quite as ridiculous as the 0z but both hurricane models are still bottoming out at around 900. Looks like the NW Caribbean is going to do its magic if it continues to get further enough W.
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