Stx_Thunder

Brownsville got into the 90s today, and broke the record of 91 F set back in 1982.

Some maximum temp records could be in jeopardy again this upcoming week as ridging aloft looks to reassert itself over the Plains states early in the week.

Several cities in the eastern half of state broke daytime high temp records today. Due to the dryline reaching all the way east into ETX. A deeper westerly downslope flow was found even in College Station and Tyler in the afternoon. Aside from the tied all-time January temp maximums in both Austin and San Antonio, the biggest jump in maximum daytime high from previous record for today (January 2), was actually in Waco.

A new year? A new TX thread. - Looking pretty warm with more widespread sig ridging influence across the central states (again), to start 2026. Euro and ensemble already going up to 20 C on 850Mb temps ('plain & simple' way above normal this time of year) in some spots the next several days. Which that alone leaves me with almost 0 doubt, more sfc temp records are going to be broken across much of the state, once again. Along with even dryline influence invading the state as well from the west (more indicative of an early springlike zonal flow pattern). Which will only add more daytime high record-breaking fuel potential to this second (virtually inevitable now) winter heat wave. "Winter's over, ya'll!"

Why am I not too surprised about completely uncalled for "mistakes" like this from NWS anymore..: The nut "forecaster" who posted that must've been on 'you know what'. Possibly even more so when they learned the Christmas in July pattern would be in the grids this year.

Not before setting a new all-time, daytime high record for December this year (that I posted about in here). Very interesting as that had not happened in Fayetteville AR since back in 1951.

Almost every part of the state now has either or both, broken a max daytime or overnight high minimum temp record this week. Amarillo & El Paso are also included looking at Nexlab data. Amarillo has broken both daytime high and overnight high minimum temp records this week. And so has some cities in ETX/SETX, like College Station and Tyler. Also, Texarkana has set a new all-time record high for December this year.

Lots of daytime high temp records have been broken altogether, and even some overnight low maximums as well in all four of this topic's states from just yesterday (26th), and Christmas Day. Most notable so far has been Fayetteville AR. Setting a new all-time record high this year for the month of December.

Areas of southern and western OK are near 90 F this Christmas Day afternoon, with records easily shattered now in Oklahoma City & Tulsa. While not very unexpected with all the abnormally strong ridging in place over the Plain states this Christmas week, at least parts of OK and KS are also on the way to experiencing the warmest Christmas on record this year.

It's virtually inevitable at this point that there's going to be a significant amount of max. temp records (both in highs & lows), broken in the state this ongoing Christmas week. Not just over NTX or DFW area, but also NWTX, ETX, and probably SETX. Houston area included as even they've broken a few already this week.

Welp, looks like LOTS of people in the country are going to be *majorly dreaming of a White Christmas this year with this basically off-the-chart atmospheric warmth in store..

Hail threat (once again this ongoing cool season), looks to return to STX and coastal region tomorrow night (16th). Some severe hail is not out of question inland. Even if storms stay elevated. There was some embedded supercellular structures with hail cores in an MCC that actually separated into 2 opposite moving clusters not far off the coast last Friday night. The models (not too surprisingly) have been somewhat downplaying convective instability and moisture parameters lately around here. And the incoming mid-upper trough out west that SPC claims to be "weak" last night on D2 outlook has not appeared to be so on Euro since over a week ago. With even H5 flow still possibly going over 30 knots later tomorrow. 12z and 18z HRRR runs today now are also showing fairly stout 850mb southerly WAA flow potentially over 40 knots tomorrow as well. And even a split-jet flow regime moving over the state, tomorrow night (on Euro also). Which typically induces even more support for lift & dynamics aloft ahead of it.

Euro & GFS have been consistent on this since last week, on 2+ in. precipitable water values (way above normal in December) near/over the coast. Starting late today ahead of the next SS trough out west and typical responding coastal Low pattern. Already above 1.5 in. PW on Brownsville UA 12z obs early this morning. I'll be danged if we still have this late spring/early fall type moisture depth around the coastal region later this month or beginning of 2026. Especially with a warming ENSO (into EN territory) trend now back in the cards.. CPC actually turned out to be right about the formidable ongoing phase 7/8 MJO "destructively" interfering with the typical warm/dry LN pattern, on their week 3-4 outlook discussion (in early November).

'Next to December now. And still got 3+ in. hailers (and likely over 80 DBZ reflectivity and 55 Kft storm tops), in the state tonight..

Typical LN cool season pattern with more dominant subtropical ridging influence over the southern plains states. Hopefully, it'll back off some by Thanksgiving (more troughing coming back into the picture).