Stx_Thunder

Sunday - Monday looks to be the most convectively interesting the next few days with a potential MCS or at least a few MCCs. Both Euro & GFS holding fairly strong on a formidable mid-upper northerly flow and some unusually decent DL shear this time of year (possibly over 40 knots) over a good chunk of the state on the eastern side of the furnace High moving off to the west. Steering some stout mid-level shortwave energy south through the state. Especially on Monday. Euro has been a bit sketchy on shear value trends in most recent runs. But GFS has been staying mostly consistent the past few days.

On another note, sfc dew points and humidity values were majorly below normal this time of year in the coastal bend, Tuesday. Corpus dew point bottomed out at 49 F with just 20% humidity value in the early evening. Well below the normal 70+ F dew point observed throughout the entire summer (day & night).

'Rest of Summer 2025 is looking good for less TX insane heat, and more convective action. - Ensembles have been pretty consistent in forecasting fleeting (rather than dominant) subtropical ridging since the season began. And I don't see any reason with forecast trends this will change much, or to disagree with CPC's month outlook for August, with equal chances on temps and precip in the state. Instead of just outright throwing in above normal probability temp shades all over the state, typically. This weekend, and possibly even later next week or into mid August is looking a bit convectively interesting with a non-tropical mid-upper level pattern developing as the flow turns North across most, if not all the central and eastern half of state due to the typical mid-upper High moving off to the west. And troughing digging further south through the Plains than usual this time of year. Which will likely push a front into the state this weekend. The AO edging into the negative phase in the coming days also supports this (as I've seen in past years). Both Euro & GFS are even starting to hone in on modest DL shear getting deeper into the state as well in more recent runs. So stronger or more organized storms are not out of the question. Especially with a +PNA phase already in place as I've also seen over the years. Only real caveat later this weekend looks to be mostly meager mid-level lapse rates around 6 (except may be 7 in NTX). Next weekend or following week is looking steeper further south.

No doubt there whatsoever. Especially on social media. Though I still blame some of the people who lost their lives in the Kerrville area floods. NWS (despite its slowly increasing flaws), but especially much more thanks to the Austin/San Antonio office meteorologists, did 100% do their job posting FF watches & warnings hours in advance before the flood waters from the Guadalupe river (which I've seen from my own eyes before is a big one here in TX), really started to escalate in Kerr county as it easily overflowed its banks. Accuweather meteorologist Jon Porter detailed the timeline of the watch and warnings/emergency posted July 3 - 4 on air today here: https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/camp-mystic-where-deadly-texas-flooding-took-place-is-in-flash-flood-alley/1791962 - - About the 'no technology' girls camp called Camp Mystic being in a low-lying area near the Guadalupe river, I do not blame the camp for having a 'no technology' rule. Just that the camp leaders could've been more mindful of the bad weather that had already been going on in the area in the days prior when TS Barry's remnant MCV was nearing TX early last week. A NOAA wx radio (which also has a warning alarm for flooding), at least in this case would've probably been enough to save most of the lives there.

The remnant circulation or MCV of TS Barry was definitely there. I even saw it earlier last week on TX regional radar at night when there was less deep convective activity around it as it crawled north-northwest to north into NE Mexico (west of Laredo). Before crossing the mid Rio Grande near Del Rio, TX into the Edwards Plateau region later in the week.

It's really just a total shame that a lot of people still don't heed flash flood warnings the way they should (like they always do with tornado warnings). Especially when in a low-lying area or near a river as both are the case with the ongoing Kerrville area flood deaths. And it's not like this has never happened before in the state in recent years. I honestly thought that after what happened in Wimberley area back in spring 2015 & 2017's Hurricane Harvey remnant Low stalled for days in SETX, people around the state would've at least learned to be a bit more mindful of what flooding and 'excessive rainfall' (per WPC) actually is. Especially anything that's tropical, as the culprit of the Kerrville area flooding was in fact just like Harvey, also a remnant Low of TS Barry that made landfall in Mex from the SW Gulf last weekend (NWS Austin/San Antonio office mentioned this in AFD earlier last week). I've been seeing the remnant Low or MCV spinning on radar around the Kerrville area over the past couple days. And saw it slowly going north out of NE Mex west of Laredo earlier last week. Even an Accuweather meteorologist pointed out twice on air that FF warnings were issued by NWS, several hours before the flood waters even escalated in the county into July 4th. So I definitely think more than 50% of whatever the death toll ultimately is in the coming days, could have easily been prevented.

Looks very convectively interesting (San Antonio - Houston region & south), Wednesday - Thursday this week. Severe risk with some DL shear still around, but looks to be more-so heavy rainfall and flooding now being June (precipitable water going above 2 in.) Both Euro & GFS trending up on totals near 10" in the state mainly just those 2 days from a fairly stout, slow moving upper trough diving unusually further south in the state. WPC is bound to issue moderate excessive rainfall risk over mid-coast region up to Houston/ETX for midweek. Euro EW rainfall and multi-model flash flood indexes are already quite high for Wed - Thurs also. The persistent exceptional (D4) drought level status over SAT area should abate with this week's convective setup. H5 heights are likely to drop below 590 and may even be next to 585 in STX. Which also translates to 500 Mb temps still closer to -10 C. Going below normal for June standards.

SPC D1 enhanced svr risk today over central half of state looks valid, looking at instability/shear parameters. Especially Del Rio - Houston region and south later this afternoon with a front, outflows and peak sfc heating in the region. CAMs as usual, have not been doing well on MCS evolution (even last week) over southern half. If things haven't gotten convectively interesting enough since last week in the state, they likely will next week especially now that May has arrived. To top it off, both Euro & GFS along with ensembles are showing an abnormally deep slow-moving H5 Low nearing the state with stronger ridging further north/east around mid week and lingering front in the state. 'Been like that for days now, but with LN completely gone, and the MJO hanging around the latter phases in or next to the unit circle has me more concerned looking back on past major convective events in the state this time of year like that. Flood threat is bound to increase over the eastern half with MCS activity around through most if not all of next week.

Fine TX spring wx all this week to be outside. Can't ask for more comfortable conditions in the entire state by this time of year. Was more winterlike this past weekend even in STX with below normal temps. And record snowfall in the Panhandle region.

SPC, 100% dropped the ball today here in TX.. 2 in. hail reported in San Antonio at sea world, from a storm that literally popped up right over the city 2 hours ago with a front/dryline in the area and obviously a shortwave trailing east-southeast in the w/nw upper flow aloft (looking at this evening's obs sounding data). Causing a few other cells right now in STX.

Some recap on the easily historical RGV flooding this week: https://www.krgv.com/news/hundreds-of-water-rescues-made-in-cameron-county-more-underway https://www.valleycentral.com/news/local-news/harlingen-streets-flooded-residents-rescued/ The airport in Harlingen (Valley International) is closed at least until Monday.

Deep STX / lower RGV is the clear winner in the convective pattern this week. Many severe warnings were posted throughout a 12-hour period starting around noon Thursday, all the way until about an hour and a half ago. One convective cluster/segment after another, moving at a turtle pace east along the Rio Grande to the coast along a stationary front. Extremely impressive storm totals in & around Harlingen (just up the road from Brownsville). Now going up to 20 inches since Wednesday afternoon! (26th)

Finally hearing thunder again and things lighting up over the southern part of state. Good amount of +CG strikes despite it only being *just the very beginning (initial weak shortwave) of a multi-round thunder show through Friday. Convective pattern I like the most. Not sure if I can agree on WPC's decision to post 'moderate' excessive rainfall risk through tomorrow in D1 & 2 outlooks. I do like that they wrote out the "worse" and "best" case scenarios yesterday in the discussions. But there'll likely be some runoff issues in STX especially considering how long & dry it's been since the last heavy rainfall several months ago. Both Euro & GFS insistent on near 10" totals swath somewhere between San Antonio and Corpus by the weekend. Brownsville (BRO) 12z upper air obs was already showing 1.7 in. precipitable water this morning. And southeasterly flow even above H7. So it looks like 2" PW could be reached later tonight or tomorrow. Which would be getting into record territory for this time of year.

'Have not seen forecast thunder probs like this over the southern half since last September.. Max rainfall totals still up in the air as models are starting to slow down the approach of the Low/trough (more cutoff-like). Both Euro & GFS having convective feedback issues today showing around 10" bullseyes, but the slowdown would likely allow PW to climb higher near the coast and both are showing up to 2 in. now. Which would be well above normal this early in the year.

Decent amount of hailstorms and clustering going on this evening with a front in CTX. Wasn't expecting that with the limited CAPE and moisture. And pretty high CIN on upper air obs earlier today. Especially the 2+ in. hail in Austin/San Antonio area.