AstronomyEnjoyer

00z Euro and GFS are definitely an improvement for CNE over 18z/12z. 00z Canadian is not as zonked as 12z.

True, many of the members in the SREF ensemble are NAM like/based, but the ARW based members in the SREF are hinting at snow as well, at least when I briefly looked at the plumes.

The NAM has certainly liked that idea over the past few runs. Hints of it in the SREF as well. None of the globals seem interested whatsoever though.

That seems to be the case with those the vast majority of the time. I'm not sure I've ever seen one verify. Usually end up with like a quarter of what the model spat out at best.

Freezing rain estimate that isn't as ridiculous as the straight up freezing rain QPF estimates are. That map is even more zonked than the one I just posted. *Freezing Rain Accumulation Model*

12z Euro FRAM est. I thought you liked damage?

12z Euro is taking its time with the main event, so no pretty generated GIFs for this run. Last frame at hour 240 instead.

First push on the 12z Euro. This was very warm on the GFS.

Here you go! Still more to go past hour 240.

Very true, haha. Just trying to temper expectations so people don't get fussy with me.

If you like burning through money you should get into astronomy. Then you can get excited about clear nights with no notable weather as well. See, I'm playing both sides so that I always come out on top.

Canadian is a solid hit for SNE as well.

There's going to be a lot of digital snow in SNE on the 12z GFS.

Hey now, I only posted that because Tip had mentioned heat burst signaling just prior. And I'm not throwing him under the bus, it's more of a gentle shove, ha!

I remember posting a 300 hundred something hour OP run that had a torch today when folks were getting hyped for the warmth. *Edit* here

Hmm, why that name in Par Ticular?

Not big into fishing myself, but I've heard the reservoir in Wilmington has some good fishing? I think they stock it with different species of trout, and most decently sized bodies of water around here will have large and smallmouth bass.

Down to 15.1° this morning. First pic of March!

00z GFS

I'd go skiing at Mammoth, but never lucked out and was there when it was really cranking. You could obviously see the results though.

I used to live in Tehachapi, CA at a little over 4000ft and whenever the southern Sierras were getting smoked I might manage half an inch of rain and 2 inches of slop if I was lucky. Hell yeah, I'd sign up for the real thing any day.

Haha, for your friend.

Some photos I took out back this afternoon to close out February. Need to work out a way to measure the height of that White Pine in the last photo. Hard to tell from the picture, but I've measured it at 42" in diameter at breast height, so its pretty large for a single stem pine growing in a forest.

Ah, boo, don't be a spoil-sport, haha. I would absolutely gawk at the intense heat and pressure if I ever went to Venus.

From Pivotal's website. Explains why the GFS and other NCEP models can wonk out the clown maps. (It's not the model, it's the clown maps). ECMWF, UKMET, and Environment Canada models keep track of precipitation type in a precise way as the model integrates, so we know how exactly much precipitation falls in the form of snow (at least, based on the model’s internal diagnostics). This eliminates any concern about including sleet, graupel, or rain when we compute snowfall for those models. For NCEP models, the bookkeeping for precipitation types is less precise, so mis-categorizing some of the precipitation that fell between data output times is always a risk during mixed precipitation or precipitation that is rapidly changing type. We have adopted an approach that usually avoids erroneously treating sleet as snow for NCEP models, so you should not see a shield of "fake snow" extending well equatorward of the actual snow-sleet line in a large mid-latitude cyclone, for example. Still, it is inevitable that we will sometimes overestimate the fraction of mixed precipitation falling as snow in borderline and transitional environments (usually small in area).