Bob Chill
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Everything posted by Bob Chill
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Hit 9" already. 2.5" since this upper level batch moved in. Compacted and settled snow on hard surfaces is 8.3". Make a run at double digits?
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Give it some time. Beam is reflecting up a ways in the column. Takes some time for snow to fall thousands of feet. Lol
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Nope... it's a nova/moco/dc crush job. Pushing .40 by 10pm in places. I'm skeptical of radar extrapolated models with upper level stuff. This stuff is prob going to lose dynamics/lift and lighten up in place. Right now is crazy though.
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The greens in between the yellows in moco are still mod snow just with smaller flakes. I'm over 8" now and 9" is becoming more likely every time i look at radar.
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Lwx 8-12" call is going to verify in a lot of places.
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100% and they will announce before 10pm.
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18z nams are going to bust low west of DC. Icon has done very well with this event.
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Yea, that part is atypical. I'm over 7.5" and it's still inch an hour rates. This stuff has to be close to 15:1
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Yea man, it's dumping again. 8" is within the realm for sure. Love how the streets and sidewalks folded instantly like the chargers.
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This is what happens with a 2 part storm. You havent experienced one yet but we get them. Feb 2014 had a nice one where i got 13" with the waa piece then big lull followed up by 3.25" in 2 hours as the upper level energy rolled through. The best part about upper level energy is it's unstable air with great snow growth. Bursts of heavy high ratio stuff like you're seeing right now.
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Holy crap. My 14 year old son has been shoveling since 9am. Just walked in the door with $315. Reminds me of me when i was 14. He has 1 more job and is going to buy a refurbed macbook. Love it. I used to buy beer and other stuff with my shoveling money. I must be doing something right as a dad... lol
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Euro had around .15-.20 qpf between 18-0z down that way. Very curious how well the model does with this period. Looks like leesburg area is going to overperform.
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Euro had a 1-2" weenie jackpot over your house between 18-0z. Would be crazy accurate if that verifies.
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There's a delay between radar picking up dendrites and the time they hit the ground. It will still be snowing nicely after the returns move away.
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Interestining twist with precip down near RIC. Looks like a meso low forming
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Nice band in northern balt city. Hope that overperforms
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I'm only referring the to really important short range leads. The ones that forecasters have to make important decisions on. And also the ones that weenies freak out on
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I think we can all probably agree that the euro did the best with this event. It had some wobbles like all ops do but the steady (and mostly correct) short range runs are verifying the best. Ukie and fv3 did well too.
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Stuff out west will just kinda die out in place. All the dynamics are transitioning off the coast now. Upper level dynamcially driven snow doesn't advect like what we had overnight.
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Euro gives you another 1-2" between 1pm and when it shuts off. Little weenie band. Never know with precip like this. Hope it works out for you.
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Just the progression. The closer to the big high to the north the less qpf. This one was a little backwards with jackpots. Happens sometimes. Pretty even distribution though. Everyone got 4" and a large area got 5-7". Most of the time its more uneven
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Right on the edge. Another .1 or so. Dc and SE is the best. Another weenie band is showing up by Winchester with another inch or 2 from now until it ends. However, euro has been moving the qpf jacks every run. Won't know how it shakes out until it shakes out.
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Euro looks good for dc. Another .25 qpf from 18z on.
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Very slim imo but i'm rooting like F it happens
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No way to know exactly. It will blossom and curl through and exit. Will prob have a convective appearance with localized heavies and super light on either side. I'm not expecting much but east of me could have some surprises
