Bob Chill

Would like to see some yellow speckles start to pop on radar at some point. Better lift happening now but still nothing exciting yet. 

A little compaction but a clean 4" so far. Another inch and lwx bullmap verifies in my yard. Picking back up. Band rollin thru should get me to 4.5" if it lasts an hour 

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Looks like we might under perform.  Both the RAP and HRRR only gives us another 1.5-2 inches

Just let this one play out and skip models. Upper level stuff is a real time thing. Models are much better at upglide/fronto. When it comes to snowfall from upper level dynamics, there are usually localized areas of surprise. Models rarely nail that. This isn't a strong system but it's drawn out. We'll see how it goes.

Just now, stormtracker said:

Dc folks, we got a good burst earlier but meh on the radar. I dunno. My enthusiasm waning a bit. 

The tail on the next band is south of Manassas. Looks more like a blob than a band now. Not seeing subsidence problems. Once it turns back on it should last a while.... famous last words...

Pretty lucky to have the waa piece come in at the coldest part of the night then upper level cold stuff during the day. Ratios may end up over 10:1 for both parts. 

Northern tier posting prob gonna light up next couple hours. Lookin good for them for a while

Uh oh.... sun is breaking out

Wife makes stained glass. I love this piece in our picture window. Especially when cloudy lol. Backyard lookin like CO lol

Bubbling up overhead in Moco. Filling in the gap with the stuff rotating from the west. Everything is breaking right so far. Need the shield to stay intact to hit high end totals. Lulls will compact. 

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Just had that thought. I would have put odds at beating Mon-Tues at 2% as of Wednesday or even most of yesterday. Now, probably better than even money if NAM and euro are right? 

I need an inch and a half to tie last storm. Seems like a lock to me unless things unwind. 

Somewhere around 3.1" @ 7am. My most optimistic thoughts didn't include that lol

Just now, 87storms said:

Radar is inspiring for Frederick.

I'm super curious to how the next few hours play out. Will the shield stay intact with embedded bands of mod snow or will it be pulses with subsidence between bands? You're the eyes for the first pivot bands 

Looks like I66 north should keep going with no shutoff or legit lull. Filling in efficiently. 

Base velocity scan is a good tool for watching the pivot. Pretty clear what's going on to our west. Lull will be minimal north of 66 if any real lull at all. Snow won't be steady later this AM thru PM but a hour or 2 lull prob not happenin for most

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0G-1-24-100-usa-rad

Band forming from HGR down 81 to OKV. Interested to see how they perform. WAA was a boom. If the upper level stuff is a boom too it will be quite a scene at times today. 

No model had me anywhere near 3" b4 7am. This is sick 

You can see the bands to the NW orienting in a sw-ne alignment. Those should build and pivot. 

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

We'll dry slot for a bit it seems. Then we wait for things to fill back in as it pivots. 

Idk. I don't think north of the Potomac stops snowing. South of there prob lull but I'm skeptical of that. Upper level trailer should move lock step with the WAA part. That said, heavy/consistent rates unlikely to continue much longer. Will turn pulsy/bandy in the next few hours 

2.3" minimum already. Wow man. High ratio WAA snow is not something we do well here. Special set of conditions goin on

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ha, well this was nice to wake up to!  Upgraded to a warning, looks like probably a solid 2" or more new snow already on the ground?  And coming down very well.  Temp 28.  

I didn't pay attention to details last few days. Did any model hint at a WAA boom before the vort pass? I thought the goods all came on the pivot. 

MoCo snow globe in progress 

1 minute ago, weatherCCB said:

2” here already

1.8" here. Damn dude! Rockville gittin it! 4" should be a lock now for sure unless the ivt fails which is very unlikely at this point. 

Woke up to upgrades, boom model runs, and dumpage. Gotta be an inch out there already. What a time to be alive FOLKS! 

1 minute ago, Deck Pic said:

yeah..I think Bob is remembering this period in 2014.  I'm gonna add it to my list

2/25: 2.25", 2/26: 1.25", 3/3: 4.0",

It was 2014. Those years get blended in my mind. So similar. 

Check the yellow bands breaking out in KY/OH... I can extrapolate those to our yards.... heh

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Coke is meh.  Doesn't do anything for me.  I may be immune.  Seriously.      Folks, by coke I mean Coca Cola.  You ever had an ice cold Coca Cola on a hot day?  It's truly better than beer.   Especially a Cherry Coca Cola.  Good lord.

I didn't like coke either... well, except the smell. That was ok