Bob Chill

11 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Congrats! I did my lifetime alcohol consumption between 16 and 21. Lucky I'm still here. I have no issues with folks drinking (long as they stay away from the wheel after), I just don't want to chance going down that road, so I made the decision to not drink again.

We talked about this at the get together in Rockville. Haven't had a drink since 2017. I thought I would miss it because beers and bourbon were central to my social life and end day of stress relief. Nope, don't miss it at all. I'm the same person without the extra weight, unproductive time, and more money in my wallet lol. Probably the best decision of my 40s. I enjoy going out to bars or wherever with friends just as much and laugh DD'ing on the way home. NA beers have come a long way and actually taste really good too! Haha

38 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

the young ones need an event like this under their belt.  We've all lived through many iterations of this.

Man isn't that the truth. This is pretty much a long track and other than Jan 2016, long tracks have a special way of reminding all of us how hard it is to nail things beyond 48-72 hours. Nearly all bigger storms have complicated synoptics and stream interaction. Models in agreement at 96+ hours doesn't mean nearly as much as it looks like at the time it happens. I never marry a solution or make definitive calls beyond 2-3 days out anymore. Learned that lesson way too many times over the years lol

12 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Best you can reasonably hope for is to get stuck in a melting-enhanced band embedded in some intense frontogenesis and really crank for a couple of hours before changeover.

Yea, I know I'm cooked for the bulk of the precip. If I can get .5qpf as snow I'd be thrilled. Once I flip there is no coming back either. What I really don't want is big ice. It's rural out here and multiple lines down could take far more than a day to get back online. We have plenty of fuel, generator, and propane heater so it won't be brutal but it could be quite disruptive if a half inch of ice acretes. The euro is the only model with big ice and I think a good portion of that is an error. This has the hallmarks of a big sleet storm here.  NC piedmont is a different story... 

Our property has a ton of pines. Some real beauties that have been around far longer than me. I'd hate to see those get wrecked. Would be a little depressing. Praying for a sandstorm lol

Soundings like this give me hope that the snow output in my hood is under done. Not sure how this is anything other than snow 

18z Euro shows zr on the ptype maps but the sounding looks like this:

This is a sleet sounding imo. The euro zr maps are way over done. 

You that visceral reaction you get when you accidentally hard scrape a fork 2-3 inches across a nice dinner plate? I keep getting that reading the storm thread. There's a handful of posters who need to get the fork outta here and stfu. 

RGEM is likely too heavy on QPF. 2.5" total in my yard. .9 snow, 1.1 sleet, and .5 zr.  I highly doubt that's right but I can't help having some fun with what kind of glacier that would make down this way. Cleaning up would be a disaster but it almost seems worth it for the experience alone. 

19 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I question the amount of freezing rain the Euro is depicting for the DC area up towards Baltimore. Something seems off with that. Probably some of that is sleet.

Agree CAPE. I've been looking close at the soundings on the euro for the last 3 days and the ZR doesn't add up. Even when at thin layer around 700mb is +1 with everything else well below and a surface of 20 degrees, the euro is showing zr. That's a classic (easy) sleet sounding. Imho, the euro is missing and/or undoing the sleet amounts by a lot. 

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Feb 2006 was one of the greatest I-95 storms no one talks about. One of my all time favorites, hands down. 

Yea, it basically saved that winter. I know you know this top to bottom but analogs shouldn't be used for back yard level analysis. Back yard busts can happen during a remarkable storm. All storms are unique. The fact that a large east coast storm existed is all that matters. The above list is crazy loaded with east coast storms. 

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Look at that confidence interval as well...

We've got the day after the second Feb 2010 blizzard, the day before the blizzard of 2016...

and then there's Feb 18, 2025 

Don't overlook Feb 2006, 2007, and 2017 storms. This analog list is STACKED

Check out this analog list.... heh... 

2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

The NAM's 2.5-3" of sleet on top of that snow will be hilarious if it verifies. I remember a 3" sleet storm in like 2017 or 2018 and it was a concrete mess.

Feb 2007 was the biggest sleet storm I've ever seen. That storm has been a top 5 analog leading into this weekend lol. My buddy's wife is an Xray tech and she said they had a line out the door for 3 days following that storm. Mostly from sledding accidents lol. It was an absolute glacier in my yard. It was supposed to be a big snow storm and I was initially bummed when the flip came in quick but as the sleet kept piling up I was fascinated hahaha

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Only concern with the de amp is it could mess up our initial thump if things go really poorly but that’s probably an irrational fear. 

I'm talking very modest. Qpf distribution is really locking in right now and it's a massive swath. I don't see much of a chance for that to fall apart at this point. 

8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Bob ChillGFS showing the death band as well at hr 66 running pretty much the entirety of the 460 corridor. Interesting trend to say the least.

The hours before the flip to sleet are almost always wild with WAA snows. Giant flakes and low vis heavies commonly precede the sandstorm. I'm pretty excited for that part. I want the gfs to be right so bad... but until the euro ticks that direction it feels like fools gold 

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

@Bob Chillcheck out hr 64 on the RGEM. That is an absolute beatdown right across 460 line out to you.

It's not weenieism to expect a modest de-amp going into the short range. The majority of big storms have a series of mid range model runs that go all ham and then back off inside of 48-72 hours. Every storm is unique and I'm not making any definitive calls and I'm nearly certain that big snow is off the table but I'm feeling OK that big ice threat will keep slowly backing off each model suite.... famous last words lol...

My yard is a kitchen sink no matter what but I'd take the ICON all day over the ice runs that are popping up. 5" of snow and 3" of sleet is 1 million times better than anything that has a half inch of ice or more. Our forests are loaded with pines. Big ice would be awful to clean up behind.

Recon discussion from the Baja low says that it injested copious dry air from the desert in Mexico and it will turn moist low pressure into dry high pressure when it phases with the northern stream. 

8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Euro an unmitigated disaster with 1.35” of Freezing Rain down this way. 

I'm pretty skeptical of the zr output for now. Imo, it would be more sleet than zr. I'll check 18z soundings when they come out but if they aren't much different then 12z I expect much more sleet than the panels posted above

5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

We in SW VA LOVE the GFS! @Bob Chilllooking nice. 

2" qpf and all snow... idk man. Grape Nut dump trucks on all other models but the gfs found a way to go all snow... lol. I'll take the under and probably A LOT under but there's a chance or something 

This weekends storm is happening during a falling AO. That's less common than when the AO relaxes from an anomalous drop. This is only one piece of puzzle but the large scale features are on our side for a chance at another solid storm late Jan/early Feb

Ukie decidedly un-amped. Gfs/icon camp

Getting some practice on these setups. A game for the redux

I'll gladly take the gfs version. Big change for folks SW is a flip back to snow on the backside. Being more strung out really helps. Thump, sleet, dryslot, sleet, snow... yea, I like this version.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'll wait for the pros to chime in (and yes we know it's the NAM but we need entertainment until the real models), but the NAM honestly doesn't look that bad.  Cold looks impressive enough maybe to offset the amping a little.  Also, keep in mind, this could be 100% weenie coping at the moment too.   Probably more that.

Extrapolated NAM would be an overturned semi hauling Grape Nutz in my yard lol. Had a feeling yesterday morning that in the end a sleet bomb would be more likely than a top 10 snow event. Odds increasing every suite lol. 

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Yeah. I think the mix can make it to your hood, but that signal on the initial WAA thump is absolutely incredible. The FGEN panels are nutty with a deep DGZ layer correlating with the same time frame. You’ll probably see some monster dendrites followed by clumped aggregates that will accumulate hard and fast before any flip. Should be a great storm down there, Bob!! 

The 6z Sunday sounding looks AMAZING. Mlcape in the 350s and pounding snow. Maybe a rumble or 2? 

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If you’re in Lynchburg, you could very well see 15+”. There’s a chance this amps up and you mix down there, but your area is setup to get crushed by the WAA regime, at the very least. I wouldn’t just dismiss this forecast for you unless you are truly expecting this to shift well to your north. 
 

That said, TWC putting out a forecast is insanity at this range. 

Pretty sure I'll mix at some point. 18z Euro fired the first warning shot but 1.75" qpf had already fallen before the mix. Good thing is (so far) all the mix soundings are sleet. Warn nose is @ h7 and there's plenty of cold below to make grape nuts instead of ice.