Bob Chill

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

This is so interesting how the weenie insanity manifested itself before phones and internet. But no matter the era...driving force was still the same, haha Whhyyy are we like this?? Lol We need to be studied!

I'm convinced it's a dna hardwired trait. I was obsessed with snow when I was 2 and my parents didn't care for it all that much. There was no conditioning and I was too young to understand science. Simply born this way... for better or worse... probably worse 

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I remember calling the weather line. My parents would get pissed because it wasn't free. I'd be calling it 10 times a day for updates lol. I had the same weather radio lol

936-1212 lol. The ink was worn off the buttons on our kitchen phone hahaha. When snow was in the forecast I would burn it up late afternoon waiting for the update. Great memories that few can relate to outside of this forum. 

I'm pullin for you folks up north. It's a tricky setup but I really hope it comes through and swipes the metros with a satisfying snowfall. Nature's Xanax and things like that 

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

See Ji's post above yours!

Im not a huge fan of wxbell numerical index plots. Im not sure what algorithm they use but it's usually overstated to reality. Good trend though!

Ensembles have struggled with quick shifts of the AO/NAO in both directions since early Nov. Part of me didn't want to believe the shift strongly positive but I finally caved to the idea after 5+ days of guidance showing it. Of course as soon as I caved things started uncaving haha. Wx is a cruel hobby but never boring. 

If blocking does in fact reset back to favorable, we're right back in the game even with the Pac being a bit hostile. I like CAD overrunners. They may get messy but they are rarely dry. Fingers crossed 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro has Christmas Eve snow 

Not showing up well in the ens (yet?) but ops keep printing variations of a legit -nao in the d10-15 range. Primary reason why they are spitting out some winter wx. Can't really buy it yet but if ens shift towards the idea my interest will jump considerably. 0z EPS had some hints of the idea and 6z gefs took it a step further....

1 hour ago, Ji said:

18z ai with a Christmas miracle

Check out the blocking too lol. Don't think I've ever seen this before... the legendary banana block haha

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Yeap both are fugly.

 

But what is dipticted on the 18z gfs is a path to victory with a cold front blowing through with a low pressure forming SW of us the next day.

Of course a thread the needle that will be gone by 00z but we can all dream of a white Christmas for 6 hours...

Nothing wrong with a long range op showing probably the only way something can work with the prog'd longwave pattern. The second half of Dec is looking hostile but not impossible. Shutout patterns are the worst thing a weenie can endure. Progressive CAD type setups seem likely coming up but combining that with precip is something the mid/short range has to figure out lol

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Anyone down south got anything from this?

2 hours of flurries/lt snow but no accums. Was hoping to squeeze .2 to hit 7" for the month but the minor accum stuff ended up south of me by 20 miles. It was nice dendrites for a while so SnowTV looked pretty good for a bit

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I asked some of the more knowledgeable people around here and this warmup does have legs. MJO moving to phase 5 being one piece of the puzzle. However it’ll be more like a week of 50s instead of a 70 degree torch.

How warm isn't really the problem imo. It may be just run of the mill +3-5 departures and not really feel "warm". The issue is the longwave pattern and what it means for storms. Ensembles universally agree on a persistent -pna with low heights in the GOA and PacNW area and a positive AO/NAO combo. That pretty much kills snowstorm chances. The only path would be backdoor cold fronts/CAD and it's a stretch to get things right for a snowstorm without some kind of block. A transient 50/50 could work but that's threading the needle and most certainly not something we can track at long ranges. 

Tracking temp departures isn't something that excites me lol. I like to track snow chances exclusively and I'll need to concentrate on other hobbies for a while. I'm probably in the minority but if the upper level pattern is super hostile for snow chances, I'd prefer it to just be warm and dry lol 

56 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows.

Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.

It makes sense to have the pendulum swing after a persistent cold first half of Dec but unfortunately the next pattern will prob be persistent for several weeks at least and it's one that pretty much closes the door on snow chances. The closest analog is second half of Dec of 2021. Jan 2022 did produce a storm but it was a weird one. My Rockville yard loved it but it was another of a long string of small maximas and forum dividers. Not saying I expect a repeat or anything just that the trip out of the current progs has produced in the recent past. 

We'll see how things unfold over the next couple weeks but I'm not a big fan of a persistent GOA low with no blocking. I really don't want to see that become the winter personality. My gut says blocking will return but that's just a guess. I'm not expecting a quick flip back to deep winter based on current progs. Would likely be more of a frustrating grind through the first half of Jan. If the GOA low becomes a mainstay, posting quality and fun factor here will decline precipitously lol. 

ETA: I think I'm remembering the early Jan 2022 storm incorrectly. Does anyone have a final snow map for it? 

ETA2: I figured it out lol. It was 2 storms in a week. That's why I remembered it being really good. Rockville got just under 10" combined and areas SE got smashed. My new yard got hit good too but it was before we bought. I'll keep tracking analogs as we move forward. I don't like what I see right now but there's a case to be made for an abrupt shift after we endure the next few weeks

30 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

 

I never had much hopes for this one. Downhill trajectory across a dozen+ mountains to my west doesn't work on the lee side basically every time. If there was any hint of a southern connection I would have been more interested but pure NS running downhill always runs out of gas by the time it hits the blue ridge.... and I'm even east of that... a clean inch would be a major win for my yard. 

20 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

This is wildly off topic but good to hear. My wife and I talk about moving somewhere more rural when the kids are older, and getting out of the silver spring rat race. I don't know where you lived in Rockville, but how do you feel about all the driving you have to do in a rural area? The biggest thing we like about where we live is we can walk to schools with the kids, and walk to a lot of daily errands like the post office, grocery, library, health and personal appointments, etc. I really don't drive much. I think I would get over the driving because I grew up in a place like that, but my wife didn't. Anyway, off topic but I hope you get a lot of snow and it sounds like the trade-offs were worth it to GTFO from the DMV inner suburbs.

I love the driving lol. It's peaceful, beautiful and fun. No traffic so trips to stores always take the same amount of time. It's very predictable. I'm 30 mins each way to all the majors (wally, lowes, Kroger, etc) and an hour each way to 2 decent sized cities (roanoke, lynchburg). We've learned to be efficient by combining errands and avoiding any single store trip. We generally only run into town 1-2 days a week tops. 

Not much walking for errands but we walk in the woods or around the lakes daily with the dog. Lots of outdoors stuff for foot travel but if we need to buy anything it's a drive. 

I was 100% sick of driving anywhere in the metro region lol. 5 miles took 20+ minutes and I was surrounded by impatient jerks or people not even looking at the road lol. Here, it's just sightseeing with a few cars and trucks here and there.  Totally relaxed and pretty scenery everywhere. You can drive as fast or slow as you want. I rarely see police and when I do they all wave lol. Speed limits are just suggestions on the back roads. The driving experience itself is night and day compared to the DMV so even though it's 60 miles round trip for groceries the actual driving is only 60 mins with no stress or traffic.

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Moving from the overpriced cluster f of MoCo to SW VA is looking like a forward-thinking, winning decision.

I've made plenty of good and bad decisions in my life. This move has been the best good decision by many miles. On top of cost of living, things like never sitting in traffic and beautiful scenery are quite valuable. People are genuine, honest, and helpful. Go to any store (even big box like lowes/wally) and employees are genuinely happy to help. Neighbors will help out for any reason and never be rude or intrusive. After 25 years in Rockville I never knew this world existed lol. 

Rural living has drawbacks of course and I can totally understand why this type of life isn't for everyone but for us personally, our mental health has never been better and we've never been happier on a daily basis. 

4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

F-ing Virginians are legit going to have double digit seasonal totals by Saturday 

I was worried when I moved here that the deathband would follow me... Sorry buddy. I'll have a chat with tomorrow's deatband and see if it can make a trip to Hoco soon after dropping another garden variety 3-4" 

Didn't lose much snow today. Took a sunset walk and it was crazy scenic still. What a week...

Gfs d16 setting up for a severe Boxing Day storm... just the wrong kind of severe 

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This looks like zonal Pacific Puke to me. Can you illustrate what the upside if to this kind of upper air presentation?

A simple trough progression brings winter right back to the conus. Winter is lurking and waiting to pounce. Of course if the trough digs in the west, winter won't be in east for a little while lol but there is nothing depressing about that plot in the big picture. Move the swath of zonal into Canada and we in some trouble. Serious trouble lol

10 hours ago, wxdude64 said:

@Bob Chill, ditto here. Holler if you need an extra pair of hands with anything. 

10 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

That would be a blast! 

Pretty tuff and dirty stuff right now lol. Building a locking block retaining wall. 60' long x 3' high. 285 blocks at 65lbs each lol. Few call that a blast hahaha. Next up is a timber framed 12x24 greenhouse. That will actually be pretty fun. Hard job but fun. You guys can set the rafters 

On topic post: Cold period looks very likely to break down for an unspecified period of time with much uncertainty beyond that. 

12/2: T .003" zr and 5-6 sleet pellets 

12/5: 3.0

12/8: 3.8

Total: 6.8

3 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

Were you here in 1994? An ice weenie’s dream come true. That was fun as a kid, but I don’t think I wanna go through that as a homeowner lol

I lived in the CO rockies from 92-99 so I missed that year but I feel like I missed out lol. I was jealous of the Jan 96 storm and we got 150" that month lol. I have problems. 

16 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Wth is wrong with you two??? A FOOT of ice??? 

I'd be happy to go over the entire list with you sometime. Next time you have a full week off we can meet up and get started and cover at least half of the issues. 

49 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

It's in la-la land sure, but yeah looks like a big (and quite cold) sleet/ice event mainly in the I-95 corridor around DC/Balt, with a snowstorm to the west and north!  Mid-20s and ice?  That would qualify as a @Bob Chill "glaciation" scenario!  I say bring it!

A foot of ice is on my bucket list. I'd take a 12" ice storm over a 12" snow storm but that's just me

Still snowing here. I'll go with 3.5" for me. Might have hit 4 but the early compaction is what it is and I'm conservative with my measurements. Still snowing so maybe 4" is in the cards.

This was such an awesome event. Snowed continuously from 7:30am past sunset. Cold north wind and dropping temps all day. Snow blowing off the eaves and trees. Dark grey sky when it did lighten up at times. True deep winter vibe and that doesn't come easy down this way. Very thankful for the good luck even though my friends north of me couldn't share this one. Tables will turn soon enough and I'll be on the outside looking in lol. I'm pretty satisfied for a while. 

Somewhere between 3-4" around here. Been windy so measurements vary. Cold too at 27 degrees. December to remember for my yard. 

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

not a 50 degree difference in temps

Gefs is starting to pick up on a building -nao and lower heights in the east so now ensembles are diverging too. Seasonal trend is muted lr warmth and blocking has been friendly since beginning of Nov.

My gut says the gfs/gefs is probably on the right track. Timing is tricky because we're so used to adding 5 days when flipping warmish to coldish but there's a case to make for a quick transition. Interesting period imo

Clean 2" in these parts so far. Lost some due to warmish start and not high ratio stuff but a beautiful scene and pretty breezy so sideways snow at times lol. Oscillating between light/mod right now. 3-4" tops still seems good unless ratios jump.  Deep winter day for sure either way 

2 fantasy gfs runs in a row dropping the blocking hammer after a brief zonal relax. Fits the personality of the last 6 weeks and makes sense to me. Might be too quick or a total fantasy but my gut says some version of this is coming back before 2026