Bob Chill

5 hours ago, katabatic said:

This is my 4th winter here and wrt Wisp, this was their best season of the last 4. In fact, each year since the 22-23 dud, it's gotten better (not saying much, I know). Hopefully next year, we'll get a couple of bona fide coastals that bury us. Since they threw in the towel, the Wisp employees are in limbo right now and the ~25 J1 visa employees have all returned to South America. It's that weird intra-seasonal space between ski and golf season where it's tough to get anything done there. Looking outside, occasional snow showers continue and temp is still at 19. Not too shabby for St. Patty's Day 

 

When I lived in CO ski country I used to go through that same weird transition. The month of May is the single worst time to visit or live in ski country. We called it mud season. Everything soggy, rivers too high to fish, lakes still frozen, and too much leftover snowpack for back country hiking/biking. It really sucked.

After my first season I learned and would  take the whole month off and travel to see friends in the east. Then my summer job would start memorial day weekend. Deep creek is totally similar. I recommend traveling and partying heavily until the lake season kicks in hahaha

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

March!

4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Down to 33.1/30.0 here with moderate snow, lol. I dropped 22 degrees in 90 minutes earlier. 

Even for March standards this is pretty wild lol. Down to 43 now. 20+ degrees in an hour feels like a time warp haha.

Im starting to think I have a chance at some snow before the precip exits. Shield is pretty big in the cold sector. Last week it started snowing at 37 degrees. Accums seem much less likely (near 0% lol) this time but seeing snow fall again within 24 hours of sweat and t-shirts is comical 

Went from 65 to 48 in a blink. Wx has been a little bipolar last week or so lol. 

Under a warning for the squall line moving through but it's not severe. Just heavy rain and some typical gusts. No lightning either. 3 warnings in one day lol but none verified in my yard. Which is completely fine with me. I have enough work to do without adding to it 

Line is still to my west but front running rain has broken out and it's bringing wind down with it. Has to be gusting low 40s. You can hear the roar in the distance before the gusts roll through. Still out of the south but Roanoke has switched to westerly and gusting high 30s.  This is better than both of the 2 lines that moved through earlier. 

Wow. This hits. RIP wx brother.

Winds kicking up down here pretty good now with gusts in the low 30s. Wind advisory may verify with fropa in a few hours even if storms aren't organized. 

Second line was pretty garden variety. First one had some gusts in the 40s albeit brief. Second one was just heavy rain and a couple good rumbles. So far radar to ground truth has been more bark than bite. Looks like I lull until squall line/fropa. 

Second warned line moving through in a few. Brief rotation down by Martinsville but my area looks like straight line stuff at worst. 

I'm rooting for EF3s that very gently disassemble things and then gently reassemble them somewhere else. 

13 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

About to get hit by this. Will report back. Some peeks of sun this morning. 

There is also clearly a good deal of wind shear. The breaks in the clouds reveal different layers moving in different directions. 

It's pretty nasty buy but not anything crazy. Biggest gusts during torrential rain and some decent CG. Power is still on lol

Tomorrow has the feel of an overperformer and I hope I'm wrong heh...

Wind advisory hoisted for my yard tomorrow for gusts to 50mph so any severe that develops in that environment is going to push stuff around and over lol. Chainsaws will be getting a workout me thinks. 

12/2: T .003" zr and 5-6 sleet pellets 

12/5: 3.0

12/8: 3.8

1/25: 4.3 (1.8 snow / 2.5 sleet)

1/31: 2.5

2/4: .5

3/12: .4

Total:14.5

Deeeeep winter lol

Mod snow/sub 1mi vis. Starting to stick a little. Honestly didn't see this coming. Was certain it wouldnt work down here. Hope this slug translates to the DMV. Was covered in sweat and dirt 24 hours ago. Wx is awesome lol

Slush missiles have commenced. I didn't believe the models showing snow this far south but hey, I'll take the win. 

Thundersleet lol. What a wild day

Should have waited 60 seconds before I posted... sleet now lol

Still rain here but had a heavy roll thru and it frosted the pines at the top of smith mountain. I'm at 900' and top of smith is 2k'. Not sure if snow will make it this far down but it's pretty close....

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

St Patty's day 2014, and another late March snowstorm in 2018 are recent examples of how it isnt mostly over. Lowlands got significant snow in both those events.

There's been some poor post quality this year. You know this up down but mid/late March snow can 100% happen all the way to the coast. Even in RIC (3/12/2022).  It's not common because it requires some specific longwave features to overcome climo. A legit-AO and/or -EPO can 100% deliver an airmass capable of producing.  They don't last as long as earlier in the season so windows of op are shorter but a warning level snow is in the deck for all of us. 

Upper levels have looked pretty blah on this one since the beginning. I agree with Wes about the overcooked potential and that's why I've been quiet. It's just not adding up for a 6" snowfall anywhere. Weak sauce won't do it with surface temps so I've been leaning towards SnowTV at best and I also don't think it ends up hitting my yard. Central VA thru the DMV is the most likely area to see any snow falling. 

If I only saw this panel on the GFS I would never think a 6" snowfall would be the outcome. I would think a swath of scattered light precip and not a shield that drops .5+qpf.

All that said, models haven't locked into the strength of the shortwave and it definitely bears watching for accum snow for someone. The setup with the HP pressing into the precip is much better than HP running away. With enough lift pushing against a modest shortwave it can maximize potential in narrow stripe. 

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's the Bob Chill show...starring Robert Chill! 

Thank you for the intro good sir. With great honor I accept my 6" of digital snow and bare ground award on Monday. 

First week of April looks money

This may be the most ridiculous thread of the year. Euro AI hits me pretty good. I'm in. 

33 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Still doing the 'special' part of the storm flawlessly. Been in mid-upper 30's with wind gusts all day. Currently cloudy and 30.2/17.6 with NW winds 17 gusting to 31 mph. 

It's been pretty rowdy down here too. Went outside to work for a bit, got blasted by a 2 minute gust, couple branches fell near me, went right back inside. Not enough wind to damage much but plenty of 40mph gusts today. Not a good boating day on the lake I don't think