Bob Chill

@RDM wow man, that's sick... love it. Seriously.

Masonry is one building skill I haven't practiced much but greatly respect. Not much room for error and it's gotta be just right from the get go. You'll remember the build like yesterday and appreciate it forever.

I'm excited to build our house. Modest size but lots of little touches that wife and I will love and appreciate until our time on earth is up. Then our kids can fight over it lolol

10 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Updated Cansips just out, though dry for the winter, keeps it BN most areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. This is a link starting in November.

Summer is reasonably tolerable over most of the conus too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

500mb starting November 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

Enso starting November 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=ssta_noice&runtime=2025070100&fh=4

CFS has been showing a similar -epo/+pna pattern for months now. Progressive flow kinda similar to the 2013-15 winters. Bootleg -AO at best on the plots but who knows anymore. Volatility rules the roost lately and long range hasn't done well for years. My personal algorithm says odds favor a -AO more than the other way around. No reason to be down on our chances. All seasonal guidance has an OK pac DJF. At least the epo/pna as shown can deliver continental cold in the east. My gut says winter won't be 3 month cruise on the failboat fwiw

8 hours ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Looks like you hit a jackpot of cedar for those planter beds; (assuming you harvested/milled it yourself). The aroma must be great. (Or maybe my eyes deceive me)

Nothing like working outdoors on a winter day with mans-best-friend helping.

I wish I could say all the cedar came off our tract but probably less than a third of it. We don't have a lot of cedar in the mix and few were in the way of the land clearing plan so I bartered with a small mill in Fincastle VA. Traded 2:1 with white oak boards. Had a lot of white oak come down so I milled that off and got cedar in return. Cedar is twice as valuable so it was a lot of work milling the boards lol. Around 150 10' 1x6s lol for 75 cedars. 

I wish you can preserve the deep purple heart wood of cedar. It's crazy looking when you mill it but it oxidizes quickly to brown. I did seal it all with a whey based food safe sealant from a company called Vermont Natural Coatings so the grain color should remain as is in the pic for years to come. Otherwise it turns silver/grey which is cool if you like the antique look. Wife and I decided to keep the natural red/brown color and we're glad we did. Came out better than we expected and the sealant is expensive. I think it was $350 for 5 gallons yikes lol 

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess no one has been able to draw the picture of exactly what changed after 2016. Like I'd like to see a diagram here so I can visualize what's been happening. "Punch of the northern jet" huh? If that's something consistent that you noticed...I wonder what's causing that? I mean I know it could be the elephant, but I'm just trying to see how, exactly.

We've missed a lot of typical events since. It's that simple. Big events were never that common here even in the 70s and 80s. We've had more big events in the last 15 years than we did in the 25+ before that. The problem in the last 10 years (imo only) is typical or "normal" event frequency.

Weather around the world is more volatile in all seasons than I've ever seen. Feast or famine is everywhere. Last winter had the temps but when it came down to when it mattered things had a real hard time working out. A handful of years in the last 10 were plain warm and that's always a dagger but even the good looks didn't produce like many years further back in time. 

It's a combination of a lot of things and not one explanation.  In my eyes I'm seeing fewer cold periods and the ones that do come along are either short lived or the depth of cold is weak. Look at NC... their problems are similar but amplified. The best advice is to approach each winter expecting the same problems that have plagued us for a decade and be thankful for things that work out. Big storms will almost certainly happen again but active snowy winters with lots of events will require more extreme (and rare) longwave patterns 

On 6/28/2025 at 8:05 PM, RDM said:

Can relate to all that Bob.  Been working on a retaining wall project at home since last Fall.  166k lbs of prefab concrete blocks that weight 82 lbs each (42 pallets of block).  Nearly finished with most of the block work, which sits on top of 50 cubic yards of #57 stone.  Been working every weekend and most evenings after work, except early this past week.  Dew pts in the 70's just sucks the energy out.  I'm 60+ now and can feel every aching bone...  

I'm mid 50s nowadays and cannot take a beating like I used to lol but I've really hit a stride this year. Working very hard and but smart. When my body tells me to take a break I listen hahaha. 

It's hard for me to talk to my old friends in MD because they can't relate to what I'm doing and it's too hard to explain. You seem similar though and a kubota guy lol. I picked up a used kubota mx5200 tractor late winter and it's a beast. Also rented a kubota kx04 excavator for the month of March and pushed that thing to it's limits. Bad ass machine though. Worth every penny and i saved a mountain of money doing it myself. Cleared about an acre total in various locations on our property. Pushed over 100+ trees and this was my view for 4 weeks lol

It was an amazing experience although challenging AF at times. Saved all the good logs for my sawmill and have been making lumber. Built the first phase of our garden complex and now the beds are loaded with tons of veggies. I'll have to take some current pics. Turned out amazing and I'm humbled by being able to pull it off. 

I'm building a big greenhouse on the flat pad between the camera and beds. Our homesite is cleared and ready to build but since we have a decent place to live for now I don't have any time constraints. Greenhouse before actual house makes sense as crazy as that sounds 

When I'm not working on the property I'm working with a buddy doing land clearing and private road installs and things like that. It's a labor of love more than a chore. It's not for everybody but the lifestyle makes me feel better than anything i did in MD. I feel like I found my way in this crazy world... finally... lol. Life is a trip. Anything is possible if you have the enough confidence to take some chances. I never saw this coming 5 years ago and  it's been a wild ride with lots of twists and turns on the way I'm sure. 

PLEASE let ens guidance be right with predominant W&NW mid/upper level flow from the 4th onward... lol. Not expecting anything "cool" but the past 2 weeks have dented my resolve. I've been working outside daily and drinking 2+gals water per day without taking a leak is getting real F'n old lol. I've lost too much weight as my appetite gets destroyed. Still better than an office job though but if this keeps up for another couple weeks I may change my mind hahahah.... nah

On 6/17/2025 at 6:12 PM, JenkinsJinkies said:

So do you think we've permanently lost the 1996/2003/2016 level storms?

No, not like that. Imho- record breakers are more likely than less likely. Something will line up just right and put down insane totals before long. Juice is real and prolific qpf makers in general are on the increase.

Bread butter frequency is what is worrisome. The punch of the northern jet seems to be retreating on avg and south of the M/D never had a lot of room to spare even in the better times of decades past. Lack of clippers is a good example of what I'm talking about among other things. 2014-15 was 10 years ago already. Seems nearly impossible to get a run of clippers and overrunners since. The 4 decades before that had plenty. 

On 6/8/2025 at 6:40 PM, Terpeast said:

No reason to think next winter will be much different than the last winter or the last several. Enso may not be a big player this year, so I’d lean more on the pdo and polar domain. Qbo going negative, but solar may have already maxed. No idea yet. 

Always appreciate your posts. We think alike often. That's either awesome or some scary S lolol. 

I'm pretty sold on the CFS monthly ideas in the high latitudes. Fits the "blocking is back for a stretch" weird multi decadal pattern that I personally think is real. It's not a predictable cycle like others but it does wax and wane in 8-12 year cycles. Problem with prediction is you only know its flipped in the rear view and there are plenty of odds and ends that muddy it up. I've seen enough last couple of years to feel oddly confident this winter will feature some really nice looks. 

But if we're all being honest, storm tracks just aren't what they used to be. Imo- it's no fluke it's hard AF to get normal stuff underneath us in a clean way... even with good looks. You could say the east is due for a run of traditional noreasters but again, muddy odds and ends are persistently and consistently stabbing us right in the heart. Random? I hope so but idk... Intuition doesn't feel like it is...

Just under 3" in my yard but I just got back from a trip to Roanoke. On the way back it was straight dumping from the east side of town to the Blue Ridge. Rivers, rocks, and debris on all roads lol.  It was wild. Not like big flood stuff. Just sheets of running water and gutters barfing anything they had in them into the streets lol. My son saw a small tree stump floating down a side street. I was concentrating on driving at the time. Man that S was wild. Weather is awesome 

I don't have any thoughts about next winter so I'll just use this one for now

10 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

You mean south of Winchester.

Oh yea! I'd tell you to move north but I don't want to do that to innocent north of OKV peeps. They like rain and snow. 

Over 2" and counting. Ground is done absorbing. Heavies are running off pretty quick.  Convective rain later (if it works out) should bring some mini flood photo ops lol. 

This event will end up being more than anyone needed to this area but man, we needed it anyway. 

Man it's been dumpin down here lol. Start time kept getting pushed back leading in but it doesn't matter. Every wave and pulse has heavies mixed in. I wouldn't worry to much about a bust (except for a small area N of Winchester ). 

Tomorrow has convective potential and that will likely bring some warnings to the blue ridge into the piedmont. Some people already have over 3". My yard about half that. Glad it's coming in prolonged waves. We really needed it. Been a dust bowl since early April. Not kiddin either. Dustier than Tony Montana's upper lip and stuff 

8 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like a thin band setup right over your place. Beautiful spot you have down there.

Total hit and run. Filled in and mod snow took like 10 min then full foot on the gas for 90 min then rapid shutoff and mountains came back into full view. Man, what an awesome "personal" event. Wife is similar to me but not insane. She sat right by our biggest windows drinking coffee smiling start to finish. 

I need some warm days though. I have big time projects getting underway including a month behind the controls of an excavator and probably 100 tons of fill dirt to work with. Plan was to be done with this by 2/1 lol. Apparently frozen ground shuts down earthwork and dirt merchants

Shut off like a switch. 1.8" yesterday and 1.8" today. 2 completely different experiences but hit 3.6" total. Blue sky is in the distance. Should be good photo ops here shortly. 

I'm not really that close to climo. 9.3" on the season and modern climo maps tag this elevated area with 13" around smith mtn. I still give this winter a B-B+ grade based mostly on the feels. Multiple cold events, plenty of snow cover days, and lots of fun tracking.  If i can hit 13" it's an A-. Below norm DJF with multiple events it's not normal or average. It's pretty rare. 

After some solid un-luck yesterday, I managed to draw an inside straight. Might already have 2" new. I'll measure when it's done. Bust is unbusted

4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Came thru here earlier, picked up 0.5 in 20-25 minutes. Had 2.0 on board at 7 am CoCoRaHS (and cleaned), looks like another 0.2 or so fell after I swiped, add the 0.7 from yesterday morning and storm total going to be 2.9. Have 2 to 3 inches in the yard and driveway. Currently 18.5/14.0.

Better than ANYTHING yesterday lol. I'll clear and inch on this round easy. Might be there already. 15-20:1 stuff. Man I love upper level action. Reminds me of my Colorado years 

Heavies. Snow globe scene

Getting hit pretty good with mod high ratio snow with big dendrites. Half inch in under 30 mins so far. Hope it holds together for y'all. Heavier than anything i got yesterday lol. 

Getting mod snow now. Nice band!

Lt snow started up again. Not expecting much. Maybe .5" but radar looks OK and it cold AF so we'll see

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Our snow climo sucks enough without kicking 20% of it because you can’t handle that it melts 

Exactly. I'll enjoy any and all. March snow is like last hour at the bar after a long night. Things are winding down and thinning out and right when you're ready to call it a night, someone starts buying rounds of shots for everyone and a super hot girl starts talking to you. This is why you never go home early 

5 minutes ago, konksw said:

March is my least favorite month of the year. 

Without fail, year after year, the period from March 15th to mid April annoys the heck out of me. Bipolar temps, a tendency for Grey skies, and plenty of mud just doesn't do it for me 

Lt snow filled back in. Might pull off 1.802 or something like that haha

Mesos like my area for the ull in the AM. If I could somehow tack on 1.2 the bust goes back in the bra

Obvious short range bust down here too. Snowed all day until about 3pm but I would be lying if I reported 2". About 1.8" everywhere I measured. Cold temps but no wind make it hard to find a juiced patch hahaha

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I am a solar weenie too. When I built my new work shed last year I did roughly the same. 3kw panels, 3k inverter. But I did a lot more battery storage (15kwh), which is the most expensive part. I also ran my inverter to one outlet in my kitchen/dining area so I could power my fridge in a power outage. It has been working awesome.

Yep, batteries.... made of gold apparently. Prices imploded this year. I wasnt originally going to build this part out this quick. We have generators and 12v solar but opportunity struck. I'm using EG4 server rack batteries and inverter. I have 2 1.2kw batteries now but the system is plug and play expandable to 16 batteries and 6 inverters. That would cost more than a car lol but I made sure I built something that can grow with ease and compatibility. I'm amazed I can run my big tools like planers and table saws when its sunny and never touch the battery power. 

Enough OT out of me lol. It's going to snow again. When I don't know but I'm 100% sure it will snow again within the next 12 months...