Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I'll admit this cold is more fierce than I expected here. It's 9 degrees out right now.
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December 22nd - 23rd Cutter Discussion and Observations
Winterweatherlover replied to NJwx85's topic in New York City Metro
Yea it's not dropping that fast here either, it went from like mid 40s to mid 30s in a couple of hours which is decent, thats nothing compared to the type of drops further inland. -
Thats why I said probably. Anything can happen but the pattern the next 3 weeks looks horrible.
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Well it was nice to see the 5 minute snow squall, probably the only snow we'll see again until at least Mid January.
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December 22nd - 23rd Cutter Discussion and Observations
Winterweatherlover replied to NJwx85's topic in New York City Metro
Mixing with snow now as things wind down. So odd to see the cold air rushing in from south to north. -
The storm next week being halfway out in the atlantic on the GFS and CMC is probably where we want it at 180 hours out the way the winter is going.
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Looks like backend accumulating snow becoming more likely for Sullivan county and the catskills on Friday, some possible mood flakes further southeast of there as well, looks like the further west you are the better chance. Next week looks interesting on CMC, I know it's only model showing it but thats fine I trust the CMC more than other models.
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I don’t think what most models are showing 7-8 days out means anything. A hit is equally likely to no hit at this point imo. In terms of precip type very much undetermined but agree with you I don’t think we can just assume it’d be snow.
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The CMC has actually been creeping SE with backend snow on Friday. It’s kind of getting close for the northern and western parts of the subforum. We’ll see.
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I’d take a sleet storm it’s better than rain.
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I think there will be a big drop quick but it won't be as crazy as some models are hinting. Probably end up in like the mid to upper 20s on the coast.
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Chicago is now mixing on the storm this week lol can't believe this was at one time out in the atlantic, the long range models are terrible.
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Definitely still possible to see some front end frozen well inland although with the east wind situation again probably gonna be hard within 50 miles of the coast.
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I feel like we go through this every winter with the big expectations and then the doom and gloom. The reality is it doesn't usually snow much before January in our region, it almost always warms up sometime around Christmas and it snows from time to time but not that often in this area. I don't think winter is over.
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And then it just stops when it hits NYC and points NE?
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I can’t totally read the Ukie map but based on the 0 line verbatim looks like snow for NJ at hour 144 so maybe that’s where it’s coming from?
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Must be a mistake unless there is a storm between hour 144 and 168? Pivotal showing no accumulation in the same region.
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From congrats Chicago to congrats Buffalo is some progress. Probably won't matter for us but we continue to track.
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At this point I think the odds of an I95 snowstorm are pretty low but just hoping for front end or back end snow.
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CMC very improved
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Ok I'l give it was about a noticeable east shift but we still need about another 500 miles.
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It came a little east but still not close for our region.
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Not really seeing any major changes yet.
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NYC metro seasonal snowfall contest
Winterweatherlover replied to Rjay's topic in New York City Metro
NYC 20" ISP 22" EWR 19" SWF 30" MMU 25" -
Bored so predictions: Better chance of NYC getting 1 inch of snow or hitting 60 degrees between now and 12/25?
