Winterweatherlover
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Everything posted by Winterweatherlover
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I would suggest not looking at models like the NAM and ICON. The RGEM has been consistent with a non event for NYC. That’s why I’m not that surprised/disappointed.
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At this point it’s not only possible but more likely than not cpk hits futility record.
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It seemed low unless we got absolute perfection which is rare.
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I hate living here so much so tired of the easterly winds ruining everything, I feel it’s the same story almost every storm.
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The ceiling was always pretty low imo se of 287. Does NYC get anything?
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On the bright side if it’s really gonna be 50s-60s late next week this would have been gone quickly anyway so we aren’t missing much.
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Not trying to be negative but part of why people get disappointed and say the models stink is you trust models and model runs that shouldn’t be trusted too much. The NAM is unfortunately not a reliable at all.
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Taking NAM over RGEM can lead to big disappointment. It’s also not like NAM showed this every run, it’s one run. It’s ok to be excited though but I always take a cautious approach.
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The RGEM hasn’t really liked this storm the whole time for NYC, I know it is slightly warm biased but it’s part of the reason I’m very cautious with this.
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I was going to ask about gfs and then realized with daylight savings not out until 11:30.
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I’m going with the expect all rain approach and be pleasantly surprised if we get a surprise.
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This would be a pretty big fail for the euro if it does bust given how consistent it’s been.
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I agree unfortunately. If we are relying on an inverted trough it’s probably going to bust.
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How come the euro is so different from other models? This is such a hard forecast.
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So we don’t want a double low?
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I’m sorta off the ledge because of the cmc. The Ukie I don’t take too seriously lol.
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This is oversimplified. The right track and right dynamics would affect the outcome.
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If the 0Z euro holds and we have cmc/euro in our favor that wouldn’t be a bad combo. Still a tricky setup it seems for the models and I guess I’m not that optimistic due to the overall setup and how perfect this needs to go.
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Not throwing it out but it’s has limited support. If we actually had a suite where at least two models showed something promising I’d feel more hopeful.
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The cmc undergoes faster rapid intensification so that probably helped. Still not optimistic but nice to finally see a decent run from a model I sorta trust.
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Cmc looks decent but I wonder how much of that is the norlun feature, the low still looks pretty Far East.
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The low may as well go to London at this point, good call by Forky.
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The 0Z gfs is now mainly rain to Rockland and Putnam counties…..
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Relying on a norlun feature to produce has never worked. Not sure what the Euro is doing that other models aren’t but it seems basically on its own.
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Hey I’m fairly optimistic for the I84 crew. At least someone in the subforum will get a nice storm finally.
