MDScienceTeacher

This is the coldest it’s been leading up to any snow event since maybe 10 years as far as I can remember

I’m gonna go out in a limb here and say the precipitation type is not gonna be an issue except maybe for the first half an hour

Yeah I have seen this for snow squalls situations where they are only expecting 2-4 inches

I like @Terpeastforecast a lot better at least he makes an actual forecast. This is just “I’m gonna make a map that could cover any possible outcome.”

Maybe it was an icing situation I am thinking about. Which would make more sense.

Actually, no, I’ve seen a warning for a 2 to 4 inch so I think they take into consideration overall conditions, especially if there is a chance for dynamic snow that’s gonna take people by surprise

I don’t understand why this is not a warning for Carrol, Baltimore, Harford counties. With the cold air mass in place and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow over a short period of time roads will be extremely bad.

I have a house in Rehoboth and an apartment in Elliott city. This is gonna happen.. 100% just like this. because the snow gods hate me and my family

I agree. Btw this event reminds me of one of the events we had in 2015.. I think it was the Valentine’s Day snow squalls. that event was modeled as snow showers right up until the short range models started picking up on squall lines and coastal development. I remember some places in Hartford county seeing 4-6 inches in a very short period of time. the official Bwi total was 2.5 inches. here is a link to foots forecast for that storm. I couldn’t find much on it.. others than this https://www.facebook.com/ffcentralmaryland/photos/730-am-214-something-wicked-this-way-comes-and-we-hope-you-are-well-aware-of-the/10152687024933857/?http_ref=eyJ0cyI6MTc2NTQ1Nzk1ODAwMCwiciI6Imh0dHBzOlwvXC93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbVwvIn0%3D

I have zero scientific reason for this statement, but this is going improve as we get closer and will over perform at game time. 2014-2015 style!

Why not?? I have a house down in rehoboth and we have seen more snow down there than in Elliott City the last 2 out of 3 winters. One year (I think 21-22) was one of the snowiest seasons they have seen in a very long time. It’s looking like that seasonal pattern is setting up again. the problem is clearly not cold air. It’s timing, overall precip and storm track. This is why it’s so frustrating when I have a normal person tell me “it just doesn’t snow like it used to, it’s doesnt get cold enough anymore”

If you look at ensemble members at this range during a time period where there is possible threat, they will inevitably show solutions like the one shown on that infamous 6Z run from last Wednesday. Nobody ever takes that a random ensemble member seriously at that range. But when the op shows it, people hold out hope, even if it never shows up again. I dont understand why people never learn.

So January was in the top 40 of all time: Looking at the January temperature data from 1871-2025, here are the top 40 coldest Januaries on record (from coldest to warmest): | Rank | Year | January Temp (°F) | |------|------|-------------------| | 1 | 1977 | 22.9 | | 2 | 1893 | 23.5 | | 3 | 1918 | 24.2 | | 4 | 1982 | 25.5 | | 5 | 1912 | 25.8 | | 6 | 1940 | 26.0 | | 7 | 1994 | 27.1 | | 8 | 1904 | 27.4 | | 9 | 2014 | 27.4 | | 10 | 1961 | 27.6 | | 11 | 2004 | 27.6 | | 12 | 1970 | 27.8 | | 13 | 1981 | 27.9 | | 14 | 2003 | 28.3 | | 15 | 1984 | 28.5 | | 16 | 1988 | 28.7 | | 17 | 1963 | 28.8 | | 18 | 1920 | 28.6 | | 19 | 1958 | 32.4 | | 20 | 1875 | 29.4 | | 21 | 1886 | 29.4 | | 22 | 1877 | 29.9 | | 23 | 1985 | 29.3 | | 24 | 2009 | 29.3 | | 25 | 1888 | 29.7 | | 26 | 1881 | 29.6 | | 27 | 1968 | 29.2 | | 28 | 1978 | 29.2 | | 29 | 1948 | 29.3 | | 30 | 1966 | 29.8 | | 31 | 1871 | 35.3 | | 32 | 1957 | 30.3 | | 33 | 2011 | 30.3 | | 34 | 2025 | 30.3 | | 35 | 1971 | 30.0 | | 36 | 1905 | 30.8 | | 37 | 1976 | 30.8 | | 38 | 2015 | 30.8 | | 39 | 1965 | 30.8 | | 40 | 1936 | 30.8 | After reviewing the data more carefully, here are the top 80 coldest winter seasons properly sorted from coldest to warmest: | Rank | Season | DJF Average (°F) | |------|-----------|------------------| | 1 | 1962-1963 | 29.2 | | 2 | 1903-1904 | 29.7 | | 3 | 1904-1905 | 29.9 | | 4 | 1917-1918 | 30.0 | | 5 | 1976-1977 | 30.7 | | 6 | 1977-1978 | 30.7 | | 7 | 1960-1961 | 31.0 | | 8 | 1875-1876 | 31.0 | | 9 | 1936-1937 | 31.1 | | 10 | 1919-1920 | 31.5 | | 11 | 1880-1881 | 31.6 | | 12 | 1895-1896 | 31.6 | | 13 | 1981-1982 | 31.9 | | 14 | 1876-1877 | 32.1 | | 15 | 1892-1893 | 32.1 | | 16 | 1965-1966 | 32.1 | | 17 | 1894-1895 | 32.3 | | 18 | 1890-1891 | 32.3 | | 19 | 1901-1902 | 32.4 | | 20 | 1993-1994 | 32.4 | | 21 | 1958-1959 | 32.5 | | 22 | 1959-1960 | 32.5 | | 23 | 2014-2015 | 32.5 | | 24 | 1898-1899 | 32.7 | | 25 | 1961-1962 | 32.7 | | 26 | 1877-1878 | 32.9 | | 27 | 1879-1880 | 32.9 | | 28 | 1911-1912 | 32.9 | | 29 | 1964-1965 | 32.9 | | 30 | 1967-1968 | 32.9 | | 31 | 1935-1936 | 33.0 | | 32 | 1888-1889 | 33.0 | | 33 | 1872-1873 | 33.2 | | 34 | 1963-1964 | 33.3 | | 35 | 1985-1986 | 33.3 | | 36 | 1970-1971 | 33.6 | | 37 | 1883-1884 | 33.6 | | 38 | 1999-2000 | 33.6 | | 39 | 1968-1969 | 33.7 | | 40 | 1881-1882 | 33.7 | | 41 | 1884-1885 | 33.7 | | 42 | 1933-1934 | 33.8 | | 43 | 1909-1910 | 34.0 | | 44 | 1980-1981 | 34.1 | | 45 | 1955-1956 | 34.2 | | 46 | 1966-1967 | 34.5 | | 47 | 1916-1917 | 34.5 | | 48 | 1906-1907 | 34.5 | | 49 | 1939-1940 | 34.7 | | 50 | 1986-1987 | 34.7 | | 51 | 1987-1988 | 34.8 | | 52 | 1950-1951 | 35.0 | | 53 | 2008-2009 | 35.1 | | 54 | 2024-2025 | 35.5 So definitely not the anywhere near coldest of all time, but somewhere around 80th percentile given ~200 years of data.

Right.. I dont understand the comments above. It was one of the coldest winters of all time. See above. 13 through 14 and 14 through 15 we’re definitely one of the coldest on record. but last year compared to others, was one of the coldest years. What is interesting however is that we’ve had some of the coldest winters on record in the last 25 years. It’s almost as if winters are becoming more severe and more cold. 24-25 38.6, 30.3, 37.6 13-14 39.6 27.4 32.9 14-15 39.9, 30.8, 25.3

I had an argument with several people about this over the weekend. Every single person said last winter was warm. For some reason LLMs seem to be bias on this also saying that 84-85 was much colder and that last year was only "Mildly Cold". I thought last year was one of the coldest on record. Based on NOAA data it was right up there with 84-85: