AtlanticWx

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The storm has been over performing to our west. Makes no sense. I’m skeptical. 

i think it's less impressive because most of all it cuts back the extra precip associated w the piece near the back edge which lines up with obs. but i just honestly doubt that it'll be that low because rates look impressive compared to NAM 3K which only gets to 1"/hr rates at best

i remember HRRR kept drying up and down trending run after run prior to 1/7/22 which isn't that far off from the storm we're supposed to get tonight since it was a quick hitter w great dynamics

ended up with 6" of snow despite HRRR telling me i was gonna get 1-2" right before

37.2° right now, definitely running a bit cold. NAM 3K had us hitting 37-38° at 12 am

41° right now exactly. following models to a tee w temps rn

i can't wait to see the papers analyzing this model fuck-up

js out of curiosity are we not worried that nearly all of the gefs members having a storm for 2/24 have a predominant rain storm?

9 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I'd be super happy with a 3 day period of winter weather like we had a couple weeks ago. I'd take that and call this winter a winner. 

me too, i loved that stretch of winter. it was so nice going on snow walks and taking it all in. if it ended there and then, i would've been happy with this winter

42 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Read the room. Many/most here would absolutely love that. 

personally i wouldn't want to have to shovel every few days and have schools closed for ~4 days like we had that one wintry week in january every week but that's just me! 

13 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

I dont know of any winter enthusiasts,  who primarily make up the population of this forum, who wouldn't want wall to wall winter.  Having said that, yes, everyone knows our climo here and the best we can expect is periods of winter mixed in with warmer episodes.  But, this is not what has happened.  It's been 8 weeks of spring with one week of winter.  We should be able to do better than that in an El-nino.  Who knows, maybe they'll be an epic period to close it out, although, by the time it gets here we'll be fighting an uphill struggle with climo. 

i guarantee you most people in here would be tired if we got 8 weeks of conditions like we had that one week in january. nobody is that much of a winter weenie lmao

1 hour ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

He's not complaining about the week.  He's complaining that it's the only week.  What about the other 8 weeks of this winter, how do they rank?

we don't live in alaska i don't know why anyone would expect or even want 8 weeks of wall to wall wintry conditions 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We've only had 1 week of winter this year. It's been a real snoozefest and these big predictions of above average snow are in real danger.

that week in january was objectively the best looking at the AWSSI values at the three airports from the past 7 years and even for all time it ranked within the top 1-2% of weeks winter-wise

if people are complaining about a week like that then maybe u shld move somewhere else cuz ur expectations are way too high

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

It looked like the gfs was about to light us up at 384 and then the show ended

yeah it looked like it was about to drop a nice one and maybe even a bigger one if u extrapolate far enough to where that aleutian low ejects a vort

the euro weeklies control run is still weenie with regionwide 18"+ lmao

i hate the controls runs of the weeklies especially, but it's just surprising to me how for the last 6 runs or so it just hasn't given up on the idea of a MECS+ storm with this pattern

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

We going get PD III

 

 

i also rlly like feb 23-25 when that mega aleutian low ejects a fat trough

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

textbook split flow 

that Aleutian low is just going to dive equatorward too

i like seeing that somewhat active NS stream too based off the mean, could mean a big phase

idk where exactly to put this but last week was pretty memorable, more so than most of us thought

it's in the top 1.5% of wintry weeks at all the airports and it's actually the most "wintry" week since 2016, even beating out 2019 at every airport
 

this signal is kinda wild

the 30 day mean just looks absolutely insane on H5 on the weeklies. not scoring a major storm out of this would be a failure in my eyes bc this is a crazy pattern and i can't recall the last time we had sum like this. 

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2010 wasn't a strong nino, BUT...since this season isn't really behaving like a super strong nino if we want to be optimistic and add moderate nino's to the mix then I suppose it brings 1996 and 2011 into the equation. 

wait i thought it was tho? didn't it reach 1.5 C at one point 

i would say 2010-11 was pretty good. we got a pretty crazy snowstorm rates wise in january

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

@brooklynwx99

Mint. 

it really feels like we've been missing the split flow pattern for all of this winter. looks amazing

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I don’t know what to make of it. It’s an anomaly that’s unusual and something I’ve not seen before. I’m sticking a pin in it. That’s it.  I’d much rather the pattern look good than the snow products.  The details usually follow the pattern. 

You’re jumping between two arguments here though. I was using individual control runs to analyze why the means might be doing that. The individual runs do pick out wave tracks. They have to because those tracks are a product of the thermal boundary which is a product of the pattern. They’re all related. You couldn’t design a product to accurately predict the pattern but disregard thermals or storm track. They’re all linked. Screwing up one affects the others. 
 

Look I can’t explain it. It’s weird. I don’t get it either. It makes no sense at all to have that kind of blocking and pattern and not much snow south of 40. It just doesn’t. So I pointed out something very unusual. People can make of it what they want or dismiss it. I haven’t really edited my expectations at all based on this. I’m just flagging an oddity and we can come back to it later if it actually goes down that way. 

yeah i get the concern, but to me the weeklies snow means looks great. there's a constant 2"+ mean for the 7 day snow between the 19th and 28th. the snow axis is gonna be N of us because it's js climo and it's still so far out, so it's smoothed out to the point that it looks unfavorable for us

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Then that makes even less sense. How are the anoms below normal, perfect looking pattern, yet no snow? And of the things that could make a storm rainy...would snow means pick up on discreet features like that? If this is an error I'm wondering why it's been repeated over 10 days of runs...Doesn't make sense.

because extended ensembles aren't made to pick out individual storms & all. they're mostly used to identify general features like precip anomalies, temp anomalies etc and give u a good idea ab the pattern. using them to explain why a pattern is bad bc it doesn't produce snow doesn't rlly make sense imo bc it's not made for that 

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Last I want to say on this, I did that "upstairs analysis" several times over the last 10 days I've scrolled through the daily plots on the control runs, saw some H5 pass through VA, a 990 low off the delmarva and was like "there is our HECS" then went to the snow maps and was like..."where's the snow".  It was up in northern PA, similar to that storm 3 weeks ago.  It's also worth noting that the EPS Mean kind of hints at the same thing, with a trough axis to our south indicating a good storm track, but with a snow mean displaced north of us.  

So while everyone is drooling over the EPS H5, and I am too, I am just trying to put it out there that the EPS is hinting that we might have temp issues despite the perfect pattern.  Will we, who knows...but if it goes down that way the guidance did warn us.  That's all.  

temp anomalies are fairly below average for the same time period though. i wouldn't expect extended ensembles to have good thermals in regards to individual events - that is most definitely not what they're mad for and you can't disregard a pattern because of controls runs. i get the concern but really i don't see where this is stemming from

i understand the sentiment at the axis of the best snow means, but to me at 500mb the pattern looks picturesque. this pattern is relentless too, which is something we've been missing for a while. yes, the controls runs have been lackluster and yes the snow means themselves aren't great, but if you dig more into the snow means it's generally split into two camps - very snowy or almost snowless.