Stormchaserchuck1

Honestly I would like to see the NAO + (as a dominant pattern). I think that will correlate with a -epo/+pna. Something in the global pattern is ticking this way. Otherwise just give me consistency in the models at this point: an Aleutian low, and Natural Gas not trading as low as $2.50 could help.

The Stratosphere warming, which is the favored pattern, seems projected to happen. Every Stratosphere warming since March 2018 though has become a -NAO just as we had -PNA develop at the same time. Say that ENSO is different this year, and that is somewhat true, but don't give it too much weight: We are not posting a monster N. Pacific low so far like '82, '97, '15.. the event continues to act weak/moderate

Yeah they are going to show that, we have a +2.1c El Nino and -19 QBO.

We had the pattern in 65-66. It was because of a +3SD -NAO that we ended up cold. And that's a pattern that seems to be phasing out lately (-NAO driven cold). I am somewhat worried about the correlation we have had since 2019, and 2013, of -NAO with -pna/+epo, but it's possible that we could do better, yes. The roll forward stuff gives us a 65/35 chance of seeing some kind of moderation in January, but if not, great

Yeah I love that N. Pacific ridge and WC trough. EPS though hasn't yet proven useful

1"??? re: everyone else: tran·si·tion 1. the process or a period of changing from one state or condition to another. The Aleutian ridge is just starting to insert itself, so be careful for what happens next. 15 days away... lol 7 replies

You ever done mushrooms?

We have a good pattern setting up for Dec 29-Jan 2, then it looks like the Aleutian island ridge comes on strong hr384 on 12z GEFS. By the end of the run, the pattern is transitioning toward possibly a SE ridge.

Yeah, it's mostly enjoyable talking about science.. but everyone talking about everyone's agenda is weird. The science will verify or not. Yet it seems that nothing comes forth here as "the truth" (very few people actually care to be honest). Just kind of lazy posting is all I'm annoyed with, no big deal, mostly enjoyable making friends and learning and getting better

All the sociology stuff in a weather forum is kind of annoying.

The El Nino does help +PNA chances. I am interested to see how it plays out though, because we have had a greater-than-ENSO -PNA happening for the past several Winter's. If we post an Aleutian trough this Jan-Feb it will overall look like a short range high ENSO correlation. Yeah, a -epo doesn't hurt. I would love to see us build ridging in NW Canada and AK, but it has thus far been only temporary Since 2019, -NAO's have correlated with +epo/-pna and visa-versa at >0.40, since 2013 the correlation is 0.30. It will be interesting to see if this correlation holds and the PNA goes negative this Winter when the NAO goes negative.

Natural Gas at $2.40, when Gasoline is >$3 is a warm Winter signal. It was low in 2015 at this time though, but not compared to CL. 2011 is a pretty good NG-CL match. https://ibb.co/3sDYdPF I wonder what the energy mets are forecasting.

I post this here too: I once again used that December will be a +2SD +EPO (dominate trough over Alaska) to roll forward to January, and again see that the very warm conditions usually continue. Dec Analogs: https://ibb.co/TTnjcDS Dec Temp map: https://ibb.co/cxjrYFz Jan roll forward 500mb pattern: https://ibb.co/rdsYCpF Jan roll forward US Temp map: https://ibb.co/zbqBKKL These roll forward means are giving us a baseline +2 to +4 Jan to work with. Not saying it will absolutely happen, but the signal is pretty strong. It's an anomalous event, this +EPO Dec. This too: This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January: Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC Modeled Stratosphere warming is a variable that could make these bust, moreso late in the month January, as that supports more -NAO conditions. Something that has happened lately is, -NAO's have correlated with -PNA/+EPO and visa-versa, the correlation has been strong since 2019 (0.40>), since 2013 (>0.30)

Oh no! An Aleutian ridge The LR pattern is "ok", the heights are kind of low despite being somewhat favorable in the index areas. We have not, since the El Nino developed, seen a long sustained +PNA, so let's see what happens. I'm a little worried about the roll forward Dec +EPO-Upper Midwest warm look. If the pattern changes and blocking develops up north great, but the Aleutian low looks favorable for 4 days then it phases out a bit on the current models. The roll forward is a -PNA look, so this is the make or break time.. all global models showed a cold January, and this is the time it should happen if it's going to happen (LR ensembles are at Jan 4-5+)

"Very warm" is actually for the Upper Midwest. They will finish the month some +10-15F. The post said I was primarily focusing on +EPO December's, so I'm not sure why it became EC-centric, maybe because I'm posting it in this forum. The "above average" usually spreads to the eastern 2/3 of the US in January, and this was my 2nd analog match showing that so it's something to watch out for. It also rolls forward to somewhat of a warm March, average February.

I know, you like when I make a judgement about something. It makes it fair game.

I once again used that December will be a +2SD +EPO (dominate trough over Alaska) to roll forward to January, and again see that the very warm conditions usually continue. Dec Analogs: https://ibb.co/TTnjcDS Dec Temp map: https://ibb.co/cxjrYFz Jan roll forward 500mb pattern: https://ibb.co/rdsYCpF Jan roll forward US Temp map: https://ibb.co/zbqBKKL These roll forward means are giving us a baseline +2 to +4 Jan to work with. Not saying it will absolutely happen, but the signal is pretty strong. It's an anomalous event, this +EPO Dec.

EPS was not a good model last year. Like 10 times they showed digital snow and a good pattern.. 18z GEFS is a bit concerning at the end: The Aleutian low is evaporating and the NAO doesn't really have a good loading pattern to go negative.. I get the demand for the Euro to have ensembles, but man it's off

Not a good bet, my friend. I put $100,000 on the Ravens 21:1 super bowl odds preseason. lol just kidding. I said it on here like 3 times though

You're young.. this is a good team.

In January, the PNA region starts impacting us colder vs Dec 0.1 to 0.5 difference. We need it to not dry up on models though right as we approach Jan 1, lol

I did + and - matches. About 15 of each, 30 total. For some reason it's having trouble showing in the composite list. Point is pretty clear though that the pattern carries. I found that the EPO-region which is 2SD's positive this December carries to Jan-Feb at 0.3 correlation, or about 60%. It's not saying anything will absolutely happen, but it's a baseline.

This is what top-30 December analogs (US) since 1948 looks like for January: Dec map: https://ibb.co/GT6sjyY Jan roll-forward https://ibb.co/RPFQyLC

New CPC has us above average Dec 30-Jan 12 https://ibb.co/6ywLWkH

This December will be a 2SD +EPO. As per CDC monthly correlation composites, The EPO has a 0.3 correlation from December to January and February. Gives us about a 60% of happening imo, just based on that one variable.