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About Stormchaserchuck1
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Location:
Fallston, MD
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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
My temp went up a degree.. 36F. Light rain -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hrr continues to show 4-6" here, but an inch of that happens in the next few hours, and it's not going to change over and accumulate for a while yet.. NWS 9am had Bel Air 11" forecast. I don't see that verifying, maybe 4-5" here. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
15z Hrr cut down snow totals to 4-6" here. Coastal low hanging around until Monday isn't nearly as impressive today on models. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Dover DE snow and I'm rain.. that's rare -
2025-2026 ENSO
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to 40/70 Benchmark's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm. -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
Having a hard time changing over here so far. A few big flakes were mixing in, now it's back to light rain -
Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
A few wet flakes trying to mix in, 35F -
2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
22z RAP is looking really good at hr21.. west of the 18z GFS with trough. Sometimes RAP and Hrr get a little storm happy, but sometimes it does catch an oncoming trend for heavier banding as well -
2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
It's actually a myth that Nina's favor the coastal areas. Randomness from not enough analogs. The La Nina main effect is a stronger North Pacific High, which is a slight SE ridge correlation in the cold season. The patterns aren't always uniform El nino or La nina either, there are many other factors that cause what happens. -
2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
21z RAP has me getting 15-18" -
2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
And a log cabin specifically -
2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
It's not that bad because shorter wavelengths give us a favorable H5 low in the Gulf of Alaska. Our biggest snowstorms historically have that -H5 anomaly -
2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
It's actually not a big anomaly, because we have a 50/50 low and strong Gulf of Alaska 500mb low. NAO is technically positive, but there is ridging left over from the previous -NAO over the Hudson bay/E Canada, with a trough underneath of it. 500mb pattern close to us in latitude and longitude is pretty favorable. -
2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
15z RAP keeps it rain for a while along I-95 while heavier rates change it to heavy snow in eastern MD/DE. Weird run. -
2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Maestrobjwa's topic in Mid Atlantic
NAM throws a nice band back west Monday morning. Has the coastal low at 966mb

