Stormchaserchuck1
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Best regular season then worst in the playoffs. They really should have had an outdoor stadium lol
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The defense looks bad. So many missed tackles.
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Ravens about to be outscored 28-0 in the 2nd half at home. That's a coaching issue.
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It's not as simple as that. There's an offense and a defense. Cincy is projected -1 if the Ravens kick a FG there
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Oct/Nov 1972 had a warm Stratosphere But there are only 5 Super Nino analogs since satellite data in 1948 so it's not like you can say something that usually happens 10-15% of the time not happening is statistically relevant. It's interesting that we are diverging from the Super warm Dec - 2015 -
Burrow has 0 points in the last 6 quarters against Baltimore
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I think @GaWx has done some research that it is tied into cooler mid-Winter conditions, I think -AO tendency. We had one around the same time last year, and I believe he used it to forecast a cooler Dec and Jan. I think we want November Stratosphere warmings because they correlate with -AO 30-45 days later. Something not a lot of people know though is in the DJFM mean, warm Stratosphere has direct correlation with above average temps, in the Northeast, US, and cold Stratosphere - below average temps, in the mean-Winter-total
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I posted on a Western US wx board in 2024 and 2025. One of the members there was obsessed with the CFS, kept posting from Aug-Oct several runs showing -38F departure monthly, yes -38f, in the PNW for Dec in 2024. Then it did it again in 2025, -38F! Dec 2024 and 2025. Seattle/Portland, etc. This is how it verified
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Nov-March 10mb Regression with ENSO It actually comes out to 73% chance of having above average Stratosphere vs below average in El Nino, and visa-versa That doesn't even include 23-24, which had 4 separate SWs. I haven't done research on if an early in the year event correlates with later on SSWs, but they usually do happen in bunches or not at all, because it's correlated to consistencies like QBO and ENSO. Filtering those out, it would be interesting to know what the numbers are indeed!
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Well if we have a legit Stratosphere warming, the average lag in early Nov to effect the AO the greatest is +35-40 days. That's about mid December and could certainly make these blowtorch December forecasts a little less likely.
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I went through the whole dataset back to 1948 a while ago. Big anomalies started to appear at 10mb after the turn to October. Monthly/Seasonal Composites: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory I doubt we'll have a record event.
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I keep hearing about how it's unprecedented this early in the year. That's not true. A good number of significant Stratosphere warmings/coolings have occurred in October, historically. When researching events I used 9/30 as the starting date for the "cold season".
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Since 2012, May-Sept 60-90N SLP anomaly has flipped for the Winter almost every single time. We had a strong 90N negative anomaly this warm season. 5/5 months. I think it has something to do with the arctic ice min in 2012, but that's a strong -AO signal for the coming Winter, or at least high pressure 60-90N most of the time.
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They are easily defaulting to ENSO-climo like everyone is doing. We have yet to see a more than 4-day +PNA period since the El Nino developed in April.
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No! A major gulf of alaska low is getting a bad rap repeated into the ground by everyone because a handful of Strong Nino analogs were like that. ENSO does not significantly stretch wavelengths. What you are actually seeing there is a skewed sample, and that's because it's a small sample! I've plotted the Winter pattern 100 times, not 5, and the mean is average temps from DC to NYC, below average in Richmond. With -AO/NAO it's a solidly below average temp pattern.. as long as the -H5 doesn't extend into Alaska. A +EPO is a much different story.
