Stormchaserchuck1
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I think mid-October is most important. The last week of October nears "0" correlation historically. Of course there are only 73 years in the dataset, but it comes out to a 56% opposite correlation (Oct to DJFM mean). Then after the dataset ends in 2020, 5 of the last 5 years have flipped, Oct to the Winter. Pretty interesting. Of course over like 250 years I think all months of the year probably correlate to all months of the year NAO, because the NAO is decadal. -
In the N. Pacific PNA region, October and November combined have higher correlation numbers than December.
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Models have an Aleutian low, and somewhat strong Western Canada ridge, +PNA pattern Hrs 324-384. Let's see if it holds, last time they showed a big AL for 3 days from this range and it didn't verify. Edit: 0z weakened the pattern
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The CFS, which is not a very good model, is showing -10dm Days 36-42 in the North Pacific in November. Come on, that's how far you had to go to see some semblance of effect for the strongest El Nino on record? lol
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Just not a very good model. I'm surprised that you can have knowledge some index patterns, analog correlations and such and outperform seasonal models. An example is every seasonal showing -100 to -200dm +PNA in the N. Pacific this Winter. Just lazy ENSO input
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Isaiah Likely 11 catches, 2TDs. Meanwhile Mark Andrews sucks. It's a good thing I could draft Likely for my fantasy team at least
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There would have to be rapid ENSO cooling for that to happen.
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Modoki is ridiculous. This is the strongest east-based event on record. The subsurface which moves west to east is further west than all Super Nino analogs, which means the east-based nature of the event has staying power. The ECMWF still has Nino 1+2 at +3c next May
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Strongest El Nino on record normalizes the normal La Nina in the equilateral Pacific
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They verify more often than they do not
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CPC has us in below average precip in the 3-4 Week.
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ATL is favored by 3, but I'm not convinced they have a QB. Last year the Ravens only two wins vs >.500 teams were with Huntley as QB and Minter did do a good job in the preseason calling defensive plays, not ready to give up on that yet.
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Subsurface right now does not support it eroding from the east
