Stormchaserchuck1
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Warm season after +ENSO.. This is all El Nino minus all La Nina analogs since 1948 +8 months.. global warming has little to do with this. What a strong correlation (Summer 2027)! -
^Yeah, nice post, I've been pointing out how the +AO has been following warm season 2024 and 2025, after the Solar Max. Your graph shows those 3 strong + periods. Summer 2018 too, that was followed by the most CONUS -PNA El Nino on record 18-19.
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Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to ORH_wxman's topic in Climate Change
We should see a steep dropoff in the 2030s. The leveling has been upheld by -H5 in the warm season pretty much every year since 2016 except for 2019. Two strong correlations that I wonder if they will change if the arctic ice starts melting exponentially again: -PDO CONUS precip July-Aug, substantially above normal since 2017. -
Wow did the -PDO come back Check out the differences in the Pacific between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres
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64yd FG! His longest all of last season was 52yds. Tucker's NFL record for a while was 66yds.
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^5-1-3 Opposite for + Oct NAO states. About matches the 80-year composite which is 55% opposite.
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I mean do they have to be going for it from their own 10 with 1:00 up 21-7 and getting the ball in the 2nd half? I get the aggressiveness last week was good but not against TEN and Home lol
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Yeah, but they have so many positive things happening? They are beating the spread for the game in the 1st half.
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NAO has a pretty good opposite correlation between October and the Winter. It's the only month of the year where that is true! Actually since "discovering that" in 2005, it's flipped 13/22 times - monitoring it future-tense vs past-tense. The last 5 years had -NAO Octobers. The last 5 years had +NAO Winters Lowest NAO Winter on record, 09-10, had a +1.51 Oct NAO. The Pacific usually holds the same pattern between Oct and the Winter, although sometimes in El Nino's the EPO flips historically, not sure if that's true over more examples.
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23-24 is a good analog because we don't have enough data! I think you're the one who posted about every Strong+ El Nino since the 1800s having positive or neutral PDO until 2023. The PDO has surprisingly high correlation number with US conditions historically. For the whole year it's almost the same as ENSO! Giving ENSO 0.55 and PDO 0.45 makes 23-24 the best analog since the 1800s, not to mention that since 2012/2013, recent analogs have worked much better than far-away ones.
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October is not ending up like 2018, 2019, 2023.. They were cold in the Rockies and Midwest. Looks like opposite pattern is setting up this Oct
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Our most recent severe cold/snow Winters in October If you take out 2014 because that Winter had a record breaking ridge over the West, the October composite is much colder.
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I don't see why having snow in October would be a bad thing. Would you rather it be 80 in October? People here run away with a small matching number of statistics. You see this especially with Super Nino analogs.
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I was going to say, I haven't seen this much activity non Winter since 2005 lol
