Stormchaserchuck1
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Probably not, since the El Nino developed we have seen 7 anomalous-sustained PNA ridges vs 0 troughs. It's usually the other way around. 6 straight months of -PNA, and PNA for Aug looks to be around 0.0.
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STJ is strong in El Nino analogs. This is all El Nino's minus all La Nina's in the Fall -PDO goes dry in the Fall, which is probably what he's pointing to.
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What was your Winter forecast for the Pacific in 2023? -
I think you are hugging analogs a bit too much. I know 2 of these were Weak Nino's but here's the last 3 El Nino Winters since 2016.
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It's a SE ridge pattern in the cold season. Will be interesting to see if we get a SE Canada ridge like is typical of Nino's or if the US pattern gets washed out to something different this Winter.
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Nothing but Aleutian ridge as far as I can see on models ENSEMBLE LOOP
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In some months the PDO correlates higher with US Temperature than ENSO. In a few months it actually scores higher than the PNA!
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October 2024 PDO hit a 150-year low. Then in July 2025 it beat that, going lower. Now relative to ENSO it's probably just as impressive as Oct 2024 and July 2025. Don't think you can call a peak in the cold phase yet.
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Something to consider as models show nearly a 6000dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands in 4-5 days, here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
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Everyone falls into the analog trap. 23-24 didn't couple and it peaked at +2.0c Here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
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@40/70 Benchmark 23-24 maxed at -30dm in N. Pacific off the coast of CA (WPO area doesn't count) and the bigger story was probably +45dm south of the Aleutian islands See Larry's post
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Might still be too much +PNA -50dm max for DJFM I'll take the under on (higher anomaly). Looks good though!
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That 2023 is the anomaly is particularly interesting. Definitely a new pattern, these times.
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How significant is the PDO though if the El Nino does not couple with N. Pacific this Fall?
