Stormchaserchuck1
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5 Super east-based Nino's on record since 1948 (ONI) [72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24] had the following ENSO +1-2 years after (RONI): 9 La Nina's 1 ENSO Neutral 0 El Nino -
-AO/+NAO. There is like 90% corrlation between nao and ao, mostly over Greenland. The actual 60-90N Im calling AO but officially it's 90% correlated to NAO domain, further SE.
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Since 2012 May-Sept SLP 60-90N is reversing 60-90N H5 for the Winter. A lot of that raw +correlation is NAO-related.
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Yeah 20 years of global warming after that. We realistically need a -EPO or -NAO. A lot of people don't realize, but we have yet to see our 1st N. Pacific trough since the El Nino developed! A lot of these Super Nino analogs have something like -150dm for DJFM, lack of awareness about the current pattern imo
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Cold water developing to the west. Also subsurface anomalies approaching -3c below 150E. We may be headed to La Nina for 27-28.
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Similarities to 2025 over the past 5 months 2025 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2026 Apr-July 4/4 months -PNA 2025 Aug +PNA 2026 Aug +PNA 2025 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO 2026 Apr-Aug 5/5 months +AO
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CANSIPS had a cool August for places that ended up +4F at a 0.0 month lead. In the south it had near 0F forecast, and it was +4-6f. Terrible forecast when the first 15 days of the month are already short range modeled.
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Nov and Dec are the warmest months. Matches the ENSO analog set. Kind of interesting that 01-02 which was the strongest +EPO on record never got above 82F in Fairbanks all earlier that year. But that's just 1 example.
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Aug was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Here's how that historically rolls forward to the cold season
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NWS Fairbanks on X: "Through August 30th, Fairbanks has experienced its coldest year to date in 54 years (since 1972), with an avg temp of 28.7°F ranking as the 11th coldest year to date. The warmest temp recorded this year was 81°F, the 2nd coldest maximum ever. Here's a look at the numbers. #akwx" / X I don't know how to embed, but the lowest Summer maxes in Fairbanks since 1980.. 3 of them roll forward to a good +EPO signal for the following Winter
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lol I wonder how much people are paid to program these models Where's the raindancewx post where Canadian had a cool Aug for the US at 0.0 month lead and it was near the warmest on record!
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Nearly -200dm N. Pacific trough in February. Color me skeptical. These models were so bad in 23-24.
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September 2026 Medium/Long Range
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to JenkinsJinkies's topic in Mid Atlantic
Rockies ridge has been the pattern for a while.. +6F anomalies for almost a year is impressive! -
September DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.1 0.7 3.0 3.1 2.5 1.9 1.8 0.4
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I've been getting warmer indicators on the Winter than a month ago. Will have to find a site that does SSTA for the whole May-Sept period
