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Stormchaserchuck1

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About Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Orioles only 2gb of the wild card?
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    You can really see it in the SOI over the last 30 years. We are breaking it hard now however, but if the N. Pacific Hadley Cell was +SOI driven it should be reversing around now and that has not happened yet but it is mid-warm season Streak of the last 30 years really makes the current -26 30-day that much more impressive. I think I calculated something like 72% of months were +SOI since 1998.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will definitely be interesting to see how it progresses through the rest of this year with Super Nino! Battle of forces! If the PDO holds neutral or negative through the Winter it's probably going back to negative after this year. I don't intuitively feel like we will see a lot of -500mb in the North Pacific this year, but I could be wrong!
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think there are global things in motion/phase, and you see this reflected in the PDO. I agree SSTs are secondary to air patterns.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is less related to ENSO than people think. Maybe more so west-based events correlate, but east-based events primarily effect the North Pacific High
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another Aleutian ridge! Since the El Nino began, N. Pacific ridge vs troughs lasting 5 days more more: 6-0. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I've always wanted to do that. In Mt. Shasta, CA the mountain clears completely in the Summer, then in September/October huge amounts of snow start piling up on the top. How cool would it be to camp on top of that mountain when the first 4-8' falls? It's easy to climb to.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    It looks like that Southern Hemisphere version of PNA is coming along pretty nice. TT only has 2m, if someone has global 500mb anomaly for GEFS and EPS can you post the link? 384hr 12z GEFS
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Your Modoki Nino composite has cool anomalies in the east greater than warm anomalies in Nino 4. That's not accurate. Actually, a Modoki Nino typically has no negative anomalies anywhere in ENSO. +0.4c max in the west vs -0.6c max in the east is not an El Nino.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    July has been the wettest month of the year for the eastern 1/2 of country since 2017.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    5 straight days under -34 is pretty impressive 16 Jul 2026 1013.27 1018.25 -36.50 -25.58 -18.73 15 Jul 2026 1012.10 1017.65 -40.01 -24.45 -18.16 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 It looks like the last time the 30-day was below -30 was 1983. We are -25.58 Since 1905 30 day has only hit -30 twice. 4x since 1876.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Biggest difference I see is in the central-subsurface. That could mean two things: 1) The event trends more basin wide than east-based going forward (which seasonal models have) 2) There may not be a major La Nina snap-back for 27-28
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    With +QBO? El Nino by itself does disturb the Stratosphere PV
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's hard to assess without Daily Climate Composites page, but right now it looks pretty negative. July 15 is 50% of the way through, and I would say it's about ~-0.4 for DJFM NAO predictor.
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