Stormchaserchuck1

My temp went up a degree.. 36F. Light rain

Hrr continues to show 4-6" here, but an inch of that happens in the next few hours, and it's not going to change over and accumulate for a while yet.. NWS 9am had Bel Air 11" forecast. I don't see that verifying, maybe 4-5" here.

15z Hrr cut down snow totals to 4-6" here. Coastal low hanging around until Monday isn't nearly as impressive today on models.

Dover DE snow and I'm rain.. that's rare

Really a warm 500mb pattern shaping up on models, starting a few days after this storm.

Having a hard time changing over here so far. A few big flakes were mixing in, now it's back to light rain

A few wet flakes trying to mix in, 35F

22z RAP is looking really good at hr21.. west of the 18z GFS with trough. Sometimes RAP and Hrr get a little storm happy, but sometimes it does catch an oncoming trend for heavier banding as well

It's actually a myth that Nina's favor the coastal areas. Randomness from not enough analogs. The La Nina main effect is a stronger North Pacific High, which is a slight SE ridge correlation in the cold season. The patterns aren't always uniform El nino or La nina either, there are many other factors that cause what happens.

21z RAP has me getting 15-18"

And a log cabin specifically

It's not that bad because shorter wavelengths give us a favorable H5 low in the Gulf of Alaska. Our biggest snowstorms historically have that -H5 anomaly

It's actually not a big anomaly, because we have a 50/50 low and strong Gulf of Alaska 500mb low. NAO is technically positive, but there is ridging left over from the previous -NAO over the Hudson bay/E Canada, with a trough underneath of it. 500mb pattern close to us in latitude and longitude is pretty favorable.

15z RAP keeps it rain for a while along I-95 while heavier rates change it to heavy snow in eastern MD/DE. Weird run.

NAM throws a nice band back west Monday morning. Has the coastal low at 966mb