Stormchaserchuck1

CPC said last Winter was the most +PNA Winter or record for a non-El Nino. Fwiw, there was a pretty -PNA period Jan 15 - Feb 10 that they were calling +PNA, but on these correlation maps what they say the index is what's used for correlations. I found it interesting that one year after most +PNA Winter's there isn't a +PNA signal the following Winter.. actually there is +NOI (+North Pacific High - the high pressure off the west coast), and that indicates more of a La Nina pattern... it was slightly predicting a la nina this winter. 1 December after last Dec +PNA... Fwiw, Jan +1 year doesn't reverse like December usually does

Dec 2021 was one of the strongest -PNA's.. what I see on models right now is a "moderate -PNA event" in early Dec. I also don't know that it sustains beyond like a week. We'll see. If it lasts into mid-December that would be a little different from what we have seen this year (where -PNA's last 7-10 days then go away).

I'm not going to bet you money, maybe another time, but I will bump this on Dec 14. I don't think you're going to get that snow.

I see +NAO/-PNA

You don't do well in ++NAO/-PNA either We may have to wait until the 2nd half of December for snowfall.

2m temps are probably too low given the Aleutian High pressure and neutral H5 over Alaska Dec 5->

I always have hard time realizing that people are illogical. It like really evokes some nasty stuff when warm forecasts are mentioned, for what I would say is a majority.

Actually the 12z GEFS looks completely different from the 0z EPS over the N. Pacific. It actually has a trough in the gulf of alaska where the EPS has a ridge. EPS has been doing better so far, but it's an interesting split. I would guess the 2 models are handling the MJO differently?

There is a lag

Alaska is a big spot. Neutral or negative H5 is going to give you a warmer pattern pretty far north. If the ridge stays over Alaska (probably unlikely) the northern areas will be cold. I'm mostly talking about Dec 6-7->

Why be negative? Things change, you have to be able to change with it. "The MJO forecast way out in time" has done so poorly as a forecasting tool over the years.

That's a +400dm mean ridge over Alaska for a 7-day period. Not really the same as the 1 panel you posted above. We are going to get a -EPO period but it's not going to be as strong or sustain like 2013.

In the bigger picture, it's not really a big deal. It happens rarely. I think the other notable one was in August when a lot of models were warm in the long range and it ended up being cool.

I'm personally not a big fan on long range MJO forecastability. I've seen a lot of times actually over the last 10 years where patterns drastically change when the MJO is projected to go into favorable phases for X.