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About Stormchaserchuck1

- Currently Viewing Topic: 2026-2027 El Nino
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Fallston, MD
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2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Bluewave has posted graphs of a linear warming trend in Nino 4, 1950-present. It's much more of a straight line than other ENSO regions. -
2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think models are overdoing it -- you want the SOI to be lower, but it never got strong in 2023 so it may still be a lagging indicator, which it has been for the last 3 years. -
2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Coming precip patterns are pre-El Nino Apr-May precip before later-in-the-year Nino 3.4 El Nino's: 6-14 day CPC forecast -
2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Let's see if it makes it all the way to Nino 1+2 -
2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Western ENSO subsurface continues to strengthen, making me think 57-58, 65-66, 86-87, 91-92, and 15-16 could be top analogs. >+4c on TAO/Triton at 160E, -150m -
^Matching developing El Nino's in Apr-May
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It's time to grade Winter 2025-26(now that it's actually over)
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to CAPE's topic in Mid Atlantic
I'm not too upset about missing the HECS because it would have been gone in a few days. The Jan 25 storm sticking around for 4th longest on Baltimore record makes this Winter, imo. even though there could have been more light snow events. I think it only snowed here (flurries or more) 11 times the whole Winter. 19 last Winter, and under 10 each of the previous Winters since 2018. A light snowfall drought. Such a thing actually predicts future Winters at 0.2 correlation. -
Already 38 here
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What is this?? New Acquisition: The Los Angeles Chargers sign former Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell to a 2-year, $9.25 million contract with $5 million guaranteed. Mitchell averaged 6.3 yards per carry
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Springs are early: good We get good thunderstorms in the late Spring/Summer 9 warm months of the year The Winter sucks lol Ravens are one of the best NFL franchises
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2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface. -
I'm kind of trepidatious of picking up our top "need" after Malaki Starks. Good WR's are hard to come by - there is a big difference between the good and bad ones. I think when you have an all star QB that can run you have to make the team about speed. At least keep the range of availble picks open, imo.
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2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
We'll see. It's a strong PMM spike relative to the PDO so this is a good test year.
