Stormchaserchuck1

We need a trough in the Tenn valley. Mean trough was further NE this Winter, favoring NYC to Boston.

NAO decadal cycle seems to run in 40-50 year phases. This one started in the 1980s. Some were saying this next Solar Min could get more -NAO conditions going

Strong +NAO in late Feb/March is probably going to give us now 15/16 Winters (DJFM) in a row with +NAO, although barely positive this winter. The only -NAO winter in that stretch was only -0.24.

I meant to ask if he has the updated end-of-Winter image, that has like 150 stations.

Feb with +11 SOI... after having no >+10 SOI Jan 2023-Sept 2025 (31 straight months, even during RONI Nina), this was the 3rd >+10 SOI month in the last 5

Here we go.. Gawx posted this in the other thread. CFS AAM projection: The Winter kind of lags previous years ENSO state up until March, but in April New ENSO pattern has greatest N. Pacific correlation (-NOI/-NPH). Notice minor North Pacific difference in March, but major differences in April

This was the number 1 warmest Winter on record (DJF) for much of the West?

About time. New ENSO patterns effect the N. pacific more in April vs previous ENSO state

57F here. A little bit of an overperformer today

March DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 5.0 4.1 3.8 5.0 5.0 5.0 3.3 2.7 0.3

80F sounding on 18z GFS

They were saying it was MJO related, but MJO is so tropospheric vs the Polar Stratosphere.. I think larger things are more correlating both is the argument. The anti-correlation is pretty strong though, -0.25 over the N. Pole is 62.5% chance at favoring cold ENSO vs warm ENSO, but that's probably because of not enough examples. It was actually pointed out last March that SSW would jump start El Nino, but the anti-correlation worked last March, as we had cold ENSO later this year.

I wouldn't worry about it.. Florida got 10" of snow last Winter. It snowed there again this Winter.

Pretty close to before. 09-10 was the most -NAO Winter on record, since the 1800s. We are in a little deeper -PDO now.