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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    97-98
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    57-58 and 65-66 also didn't have a strong east-based orientation. Since 1948, only 5 events: 72-73, 82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24 have been basin wide Super Nino. Kind of interesting that this will be the 3rd one in 12 years, in the midst of many weaker La Nina's.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    No surprise here NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    NOAA predicts below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^If May finishes where we are now in the SOI, there will have been only one 2-month period with a lower SOI since 2016, Aug-Sept 2023, and was barely lower than -10/month. It's been quite a +SOI streak since 2016. Big difference in the SOI this Spring after an anomalous +7 March.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    New CPC Winter forecast fwiw. In the last 15 years they actually don't verify as good as you think they would at +2 month lead. Not sure how they do at +7 month lead:
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    New CPC Summer seasonal is much warmer than classic developing Strong Nino climo
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really a strong graduation. It's still intensifying in the far east
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    ENSO subsurface is approaching the warmest ever, below Nino 1+2. El Nino seasonal patterns may follow, except for temps which effected by the -PDO/-ENSO state that is currently strong in the North Pacific.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty impressive decadal -PDO state we are in. I wonder if the mid-latitude low pressures will ever come back like they were for the 82-83 and 97-98 El Nino's.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    +7c is about to pop in the far eastern subsurface on TAO/Triton. That's the warmest so far, and the subsurface is still strengthening according to that.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO domain is more random per ENSO events, where the Pacific does usually see pattern. I contest that our analogs of east-based El Nino's are more +NAO than is probably the case in reality, as a correlation. Still, we are +2-3 years after a Solar Max, which is more +nao probability, and the decadal state is pretty solidly positive, although we can get -nao bouts. We should be coming off the decadal +NAO state sometime in the next several years, I wonder if we will do it gradually, or jump on more -NAO dominated patterns. I kind of have an intuition that Greenland isn't maxing out its +H5 patterns anytime soon, which blasts mid latitude ridging in the Atlantic.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder if the fact that 23-24 didn't couple so strongly in the Pacific means that another one was able to happen so soon. After 72-73 -PNA Super El Nino, we had 4 El Nino's to 0 La Nina's, and 7 straight years of NDJ RONI >0.0, 1976-1983 After the 65-66 -PNA Strong Nino, we had 2 follow up years of El Nino vs 2 Neutral to 0 La Nina, 1966-1970. 5 straights Summers were +ENSO 1965-1969.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Barely any rain here! Radar has been showing much more than what is observed
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    3rd day in a row 90+
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