Stormchaserchuck1

The SW heat ridge/drought started in 1995, and 1998 is when the -PDO began.. that SW pattern is amped max right now. I personally think we are still in -PDO general and the Southwest pattern also goes with +AMO. Solar Max may have changed things though. I've looked at what 2 cold NE Winter's in a row means for year 3.. it's neutral, 50/50.

Sometimes there are anomalies.. 92-93, 93-94, and 95-96 were cold Winters and the volcano should have made 91-92 lean colder.. a west-based Stronger El Nino. Sometimes it just doesn't go according to probability. It was also during +PDO general. I think the N. pacific subsurface is pretty important, so even if the short term PDO wanes/waxes the thermocline holds a longer term state.. bluewave has shown those N. pacific subsurface anomalies are record breaking warm right now, so I think -PDO tendency is probably favored until we see some consistency the other way there.

The Winter US Temp pattern is like this coming El Nino has been building for 2 years.. At +3std's 2 cold Winters in the NE/Warm SW and Rockies precede an El Nino temp pattern year 3

Good contrast setting up between the SW, US and Alaska this Winter. A little more than typical index-based correlations. I wonder if such a thing will flux the PNA in future years.

I'm curious to see if the N. Pacific PNA pattern corresponds with this April Kelvin wave. Research I have done in the pasts says there is some time-0 correlation.

500mb ridge maxed out >5970dm. Combination of that and lack of snowcover in the southern Rockies made a seemingly very anomalous situation more possible. Not saying it wasn't a big pattern break though.

^I've been surprised how cold Alaska has been this Winter relative to the 500mb pattern there. There hasn't been a lot of strong +EPO.

Yeah.. I mean Flagstaff never goes higher than 73 in March, then it hits 84 and has 4 days 80+. At 35N latitude I don't see why it can't do that, but still.

Let's see how this plays out. Imo, it's amping Nino 3/3.4 vs the far east

It's one of the localized events that gives me an accelerating global warming thought.

This is interesting.. this is March before a later in the year El Nino. Nice south-based +PDO orientation in the N. Pacific. Nino 4 also starts warming early, which we are seeing now Could be basin-wide

March +NAO.. 2026 will probably have ~+2 NAO. It precedes warm CONUS conditions the following Winter in the northern 1/2 fwiw

^ Stratosphere warming really busted with lagged -NAO probability.. for the 2nd year in a row in March. The November one worked though

The Earth's circulation isn't deviating that much. Things like the NAO still show Atlantic circulation mode, and although -NAO hasn't hit as hard with cold, +NAO has hit just as hard, harder with warmth. In the end, it evens out but you still have positive and negative modes to the index. Here's the last 333 consecutive months.. although ENSO is "warm", you can see by the Hadley Cell circulation that there is still a well defined "Nina-mode". Relative indexes work the same as the Earth still has 99.99% of it's general circulation in continuum.

I know, I'm not looking forward to the 1,000 posts about how "everything's warming in this new climate"