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Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    New CPC Winter forecast fwiw. In the last 15 years they actually don't verify as good as you think they would at +2 month lead. Not sure how they do at +7 month lead:
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    New CPC Summer seasonal is much warmer than classic developing Strong Nino climo
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Really a strong graduation. It's still intensifying in the far east
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    ENSO subsurface is approaching the warmest ever, below Nino 1+2. El Nino seasonal patterns may follow, except for temps which effected by the -PDO/-ENSO state that is currently strong in the North Pacific.
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    Pretty impressive decadal -PDO state we are in. I wonder if the mid-latitude low pressures will ever come back like they were for the 82-83 and 97-98 El Nino's.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    +7c is about to pop in the far eastern subsurface on TAO/Triton. That's the warmest so far, and the subsurface is still strengthening according to that.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    NAO domain is more random per ENSO events, where the Pacific does usually see pattern. I contest that our analogs of east-based El Nino's are more +NAO than is probably the case in reality, as a correlation. Still, we are +2-3 years after a Solar Max, which is more +nao probability, and the decadal state is pretty solidly positive, although we can get -nao bouts. We should be coming off the decadal +NAO state sometime in the next several years, I wonder if we will do it gradually, or jump on more -NAO dominated patterns. I kind of have an intuition that Greenland isn't maxing out its +H5 patterns anytime soon, which blasts mid latitude ridging in the Atlantic.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I wonder if the fact that 23-24 didn't couple so strongly in the Pacific means that another one was able to happen so soon. After 72-73 -PNA Super El Nino, we had 4 El Nino's to 0 La Nina's, and 7 straight years of NDJ RONI >0.0, 1976-1983 After the 65-66 -PNA Strong Nino, we had 2 follow up years of El Nino vs 2 Neutral to 0 La Nina, 1966-1970. 5 straights Summers were +ENSO 1965-1969.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Barely any rain here! Radar has been showing much more than what is observed
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    3rd day in a row 90+
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    1997 had a +EPO Winter.. the 500mb was -30dm mean for Alaska, when in all Nino 3.4 the correlation is 0.0. I can't stress enough that +epo is the worst pattern for Winter weather in the Mid Atlantic and NE. 01-02 was the most +EPO Winter. Point is, +EPO is not really an El Nino pattern, even east based events only have a mean of -5dm over Alaska. El Nino is more PNA and NPH. So some other factors caused some of the extreme, persistent warmth in 97-98, by lifting that trough north over Alaska and to the arctic circle. I still see the ENSO SSTA of this event as evolving much further west than that one though. Global warming has made it like 5x more likely to have something close to a 97-98 Winter now, especially without having mid latitude troughs which is usually a feature of el nino, but that doesn't mean we will see +EPO dominated the whole cold season.
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another early May day with not a cloud in the sky. Will be interesting this movement into a cloudy/cool pattern for the next 4 days.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    SPC is a little out of touch.. too much model riding and not enough outside observations. I didn't even realize that we are under a MRGL risk for severe storms today.
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I actually had a dream that the CDC Daily climate composites pages were working again
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    90 here at 11:10am!
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