Stormchaserchuck1

Interesting that the pattern usually flips one year after a 2nd year La Nina minus 2nd year El Nino (Winter 26-27)

Another trough hitting the Great Lakes around 9/4.. it will be interesting to see where we go after that, it might start warming.. October is the month of the year where the PDO correlation really picks up, and is the highest correlated PDO month of the year, in terms of non-0-time based happening: But in September the PDO correlation is still weak

Nice post. I love subsurface data, as the thermocline probably has a better correlation to our pattern than surface SSTs, which are variable from the pattern (look at how much Erin cooled SSTs). Subsurface data is spotty, so any info on that is great info. That updated image to July 2025 is cool. I would think in a more classic -PDO it wouldn't be as warm from the top down, and you would have more consistency about 200m deep. I've always said I think it's more of a decadal La Nina state in effect.

Highest daily SOI today since May.. +24. I think a Weaker La Nina state is more likely for the Winter. 2nd year La Nina's and -PDO's tend to have a more classic cold season -PNA pattern, but we haven't had as strong of a -PNA generally since the 23-24 Strong El Nino. It's very likely that August 2025 will be the 11th consecutive month with +SOI Top 20 best matches since 1948 to 2nd year La Nina vs 2nd year El Nino for the cold season (Nov-March) Dec-Feb

505dm over the Arctic circle today! It phases into a +NAO/+AO in the next few days, which is usual for the pattern this year since May. Cold +AO/+NAO H5 continues..

I'm so interested to see if we get a cold December this year, because strong -QBO/weak -ENSO analogs strongly support it. I remember those similar 2 conditions in the Fall of 2005, we used the 1989 analog, and it worked out great that Winter. Besides that, there is nothing strongly anomalously warm about the global pattern right now, wrt to previous years. I am going to be in the 70s for highs something like 13/14 August days, which is unusual. We had a warm up in June, but cold H5 was overtop of it, so it was a strong +NAO driven warm up. We aren't just popping ridging out of nowhere, like we did a lot 2020-2024. For all this about 2nd year El Nino's being so warm in the global pattern, you don't hear much about 2nd year La Nina's, and the cooling effect. I think since late November last year it's been a cooler US pattern, relative to global warming and all. Will be interesting to see if it lasts into the Winter. Analogs say that odds are starting to become in that favor, the more we get these cooler patterns through the Fall.

Never underestimate the sinking/rising air from MJO waves.

Sub 5100dm over the Artic circle tomorrow! Areas of cold 500mb >60N continues to be a theme for the warm season since May 2024, and May this year. I say for cold Winter prospects, give me cold upper latitude 500mb earlier in the year. I think it correlates to more -EPO conditions down the road. Hopefully the trend of cold 500mb continues in the Fall. It shut off after September last year, and in the Fall of the last several years.

Pretty cool to watch the N. Pacific warm pool shift north with the Summer pattern. It's aligned right now with the Hadley/mid-latitude Cell.

^Winter NAO prediction based on May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTAs will probably come in weakly positive. Add to it that we are in the period of 0 to +4 years after a Solar Max, which has a +0.2 Winter NAO correlation, or 55% of the time. Then the NAO has run positive 6 straight months, and the AO has run positive 5 straight months.. that rolls forward to a +0.2 Winter +NAO correlation. All-in-all, that gives us about a +0.3-4 correlation right now for +NAO Winter (DJFM), or 60-62% chance of happening, based on those 3 indicators. Because of the decadal cycle, and 83% of Winter months have been +NAO since 11-12, I would say the current odds are more like 65% chance it is a +NAO Winter.

18-19 and 20-21 through 22-23 -NAO's were really not getting cold at all. The last 2 Winters, there has been cold under -NAO patterns in the east, and the Mid Atlantic has done better in those times.

Down below 5190dm over the Arctic circle Aug 22-25. It's doing exactly what that +AO roll-forward showed, in the exact location, albeit a few months early. I thought this was impressive because the Polar Vortex was 2000 miles from where the base +AO period had negative H5.

Down below 5190dm over the Arctic circle Aug 22-25

Thursday I will have been 75 or under for a high 4 straight days. Yesterday it didn't get out of the 60s. Hard to believe it won't be cold enough to snow in the Winter unless we stumble into a really bad upper latitude pattern. The cold next week (more days with highs in the 70s) is largely -EPO driven. Aug -EPO is actually a colder-Earth pattern, when you roll it forward into Jan-Feb the correlations are pretty high on the below average side generally I was stressing the cold H5 over Greenland May-July. It's moderated now, but has been proceeded with some cooler indicator conditions. Last year there was cold H5 over Greenland May-Sept, this moderated in the Fall.. this year it's the same thing but maybe 1 month early on the moderation. Give me cold H5 earlier in the year, I don't care if it's +NAO (unless it's the Winter).

A big problem has been the upper latitude pattern. This big ridge in the N. Pacific is -PNA Here's the Winter sea-level pressure pattern with PNA (map is default positive, so what's happened lately is opposite of this map) ^Notice the low SLP off the east coast. -0.3 is pretty significant correlation. We've been seeing -PNA (North Pacific pattern), so there has been more tendency downstream for High pressure along the east coast and off the coast. That's just the Pacific.. in the Atlantic since 2011-2012, 83% of the Winter months have had +NAO! In that time monthly NAO readings of >1.11 have been positive 18-0. Here's the SLP correlation with NAO, this map is default positive so in +NAO, like we have seen lately, it is like this Again, very High pressure correlation. Add the Pacific and Atlantic upper latitude patterns together and you have 5x more likely to have east coast, or off the east coast, High pressure vs Low pressure in the Winter months. That's the pattern we've been in since 2011-2012 and more so since 2016-2017. A core reason for this is the decadal La Nina state that has been in place since 1997-1998. Some say -PDO, but the Hadley Cells are flexed in the southern Hemisphere too so it's been more Nino 3.4 driven, imo. Atlantic NAO is a decadal cycle, since the 1800s there have been 4 swings between positive and negative. They usually last 30-50 years at a time. We have been in the middle of a +NAO decadal cycle. Of course the jet stream is moving north with global warming, but it's been bad timing with regard to long term global pattern fluctuations.