Stormchaserchuck1

Comparing the 18z Hrr 38hr to 12z GFS 44hr.. the whole trough is further SW along the west coast by a decent difference, from the NW to the Baja energy. Some things to work out here in the short term.

I regret not trading it.. 1 futures contract would have profited something like +20k. CPC nailed it. Their long range forecast vs futures and commodities is something I am going to continue to keep track of in the future.. Or if I'm forecasting something that has volatility. I was before saying Natural Gas at $3 was cheap, and $4.50-$5.00 is the over/under mark for a cold Winter or not.... it just went into the "cold Winter" range.

@GaWx Did you see that Natural Gas jumped like 86% in the last 4 days? I just checked it, and thought it was something else when the price was $5.55. It was $3.10 at the close on Friday.

I stay all snow on the 12z GFS. Too bad it's an outlier, but this -3 AO within days of the coldest time of year has to hold some cold I would think.

https://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php

Yeah, 2 years in a row the extreme -PDO Fall was not a warm Winter pattern in the east. The only other comparable -PDO Fall in magnitude was 55-56 and that was a cold Dec-Jan in the east, too.

6z GFS vs 12z NAM, same time

Cold Winter showed its hand when the Arctic was freezing this Summer.. In August we went sub-5000dm, which was the coldest N. Hemisphere H5 on record for Aug. You know the eastern US starting cooling down around that time, too. I ran the analogs, and it fits a perfect warm-to-cold season progression since 2012.

The maps we are posting is accumulated precip. There may be some virga Sat night but that's not counted.

Was going to say the 84hr panel actually looks really good. The differences between the NAM and 12z GFS at 72hr in the Southwest are pretty extreme. Maybe the GFS starts phasing that sw energy sooner.

Still a 1042mb High pressure in NY state on the NAM at 84hr. That's a tough wall for this low pressure to climb against.

Almost a negative tilt over AZ on the NAM at 60hr lol

I'm comparing to the 12z GFS. SW piece isn't cutoff on the NAM at hr57

SW energy getting caught up by the northern stream way early on 18z NAM fwiw

18z NAM at 51hrs has the northern stream further SW than the 12z GFS at 57 by a pretty good amount actually. And the sw near Baja is ejecting more quickly