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Stormchaserchuck1

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    02-03, 04-05, 09-10.. Nino 1+2 was close to neutral.. those were true west-based Nino years, and what a Winter they were
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    East based Super Nino's in the analogs might have too much of a +NAO bias anyway. 1895-1948 La Nina's were... really warm Winters. Flip that around and it's colder for El Nino's, Nino's might have been more east-based though.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    No, really strong El Nino's tend to develop this way. In comparison to other Super Nino's it doesn't look especially outstanding, but there has never been a La Nina at this time of the year that had Nino 1+2 70% greater than all other regions.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Ever had a La Nina this east based?
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's relative to the average fluctuation of different regions vs each other. Tropical Tidbits has Nino 1+2 at +2.8c and there is +8c water under there. It's like 50% or more Nino 1+2 based.
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    I just don't think it was a Modoki pattern in the Pacific. Heavy -NAO was why that Winter was cold in the East.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Good stuff as always, snowman19
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah, El Nino generally favors warm Stratosphere. El Nino/-QBO is what you really want, 23-24 had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. I know it didn't correlate highly to the NAO that Winter, but the combo can produce, 09-10 was El Nino/-QBO.
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    65-66 had a -PNA?
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    CPC going with some Summer heat leading up to July 4
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    +1.4 on Tropical Tidbits
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Correlation between May-Sept SSTA and Nov-March NAO. Edit: I actually have it in reverse, I should have done lag instead of lead. Here's the +3-6 month correlation: This means that for a Winter -NAO you want cold water in that pool south of New Foundland
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    Preceding Atlantic SSTA for following cold season NAO I find May-Sept is the best because it has that positive correlation around Greenland which you can play vs SSTA south of New Foundland
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Just make sure it doesn't spill over into the Indian Ocean and produce a +WPO
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    Another interesting thing will be the Feb-March PNA. This 9-year period is the most extreme anomaly for any 9-year period on records over the last 120 years.
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