Stormchaserchuck1
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There would have to be rapid ENSO cooling for that to happen. -
Modoki is ridiculous. This is the strongest east-based event on record. The subsurface which moves west to east is further west than all Super Nino analogs, which means the east-based nature of the event has staying power. The ECMWF still has Nino 1+2 at +3c next May
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Strongest El Nino on record normalizes the normal La Nina in the equilateral Pacific
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They verify more often than they do not
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CPC has us in below average precip in the 3-4 Week.
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ATL is favored by 3, but I'm not convinced they have a QB. Last year the Ravens only two wins vs >.500 teams were with Huntley as QB and Minter did do a good job in the preseason calling defensive plays, not ready to give up on that yet.
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Subsurface right now does not support it eroding from the east
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I thought temps in the 60s along the Gulf Coast while the hurricane is making landfall is a pretty good affirmation for cooler conditions in the wintertime.
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The JMA last had a good Winter forecast in 2013.
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Seasonal models have a strong default ENSO bias. Pretty sad really, these are the front leading forecasting tools. They have a mean of like -100 to -120dm for DJFM, which is climo Super Nino. I probably give that a 5% chance of happening, completely out of sync with recent patterns.
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I disagree with a monster N. Pacific trough in the DJFM mean, in the reality of what will happen.
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It's a little dot, but +12c has appeared in the subsurface on TAO/Triton for the first time ever. That's +22F, 58f would be 80f.
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October NAO has reversed for the Winter the last 5 times, last 5 years. This is on top of an already established opposite correlation 1948-2020. Through the 25th, Oct NAO looks to be ~+0.80-0.90
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Warm season after +ENSO.. This is all El Nino minus all La Nina analogs since 1948 +8 months.. global warming has little to do with this. What a strong correlation (Summer 2027)!
