Stormchaserchuck1

So easy not to have a bias in science/math..

My average high gets down to 38 on the coldest day of the year, Jan 27. I think the average high is low 40s in early Jan. Problem with -PNA is that it's rarely very below (besides behind storm systems/cold fronts). It hits "average or above" at a 0.85 correlation. Also, Jan has a bigger SE ridge correlation than December

7" of snow here Ray, I probably beat you. How much snow did you end up getting? (It's Dec 14th)

Good news is we have 2 days with highs in the 20s coming up! Bad news is it warms up Wed, near 50 Thursday, then we will probably have to wait until a little into January for another snow with the PNA dipping to -3 in the coming time.

That is one heck of a -PNA we need to take down. The signal on 384hr ensemble mean is +300dm! That's the average of 21 members. Then after the RNA goes away, it usually takes a few days to flush out the pattern here downstream. Kind of tough to get that change as early as New Years. Models don't typically bust on a -3 PNA by any more than 1std.

A winter wonderland.. I measured 6"+ in the grass Here's my 6" ruler

The Euro weeklies and EPS weeklies did warm up long range +days after the move though. I agree though, that it is predictable if you are good at forecasting, from what I've seen tracking it so far. If Jan-Feb end up being cold (which is a chance imo), the price will rebound to over $4 probably. It's not the gospel, but it does accentuate moves more than model runs, which seem a little behind.

Yeah, we're getting close to a -NAO in the allotted time from Stratosphere warming lag, on the 0z GFS ensembles https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

If it went in other direction, we would be in the early stages of a 02-03 type Winter That one week move was incredible! We might have to consider that the consensus is now for a warmer Jan-March. If it's not, NG will rebound.

snowman did do a good job of pointing out that it was a La Nina pattern in the Summer and Fall, being -AAM. This is a massive -PNA, a Strong La Nina pattern: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

This is my biggest storm since 2018 Snowing moderately again. In 02-03 I had like 10 of these lol

More lightning! I measured 6" in the grass.

5 more lightning flashes about 30 minutes ago! With one, everything turned blue and green. There was loud thunder in the distance on]with two of them. I have close to 4" on the grass, but on my porch it's barely 2".

Happy to see the radar still has greens from Martinsburg to Harrisburg. It's really wet/compact snow, but I have about 2.5" in the grass. And I had 2 flashes of lightning! I was deep in the woods walking and it lit everything up! That was about 30 minutes ago.