Stormchaserchuck1

Here is what a typical El Nino Summer looks like in the 1948-2020 dataset

March SSW's have not coincided with lagging -NAO's the last few times.

^ Current NWS forecast for Flagstaff Thursday Sunny, with a high near 83. Friday Sunny, with a high near 85. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 81.

Looking a little warmer for us in the medium/long range, under constant +nao

Roger put a lot of effort into this, to give us fun competition for many years. RIP buddy

Since the pre-El Nino composite has worked out 4 months in a row, here is April's preceding El Nino's that develop later in the year.. let's see if we can make it 5 matching months in a row

I have sleet

Since 2011, the 2 El Nino Atlantic Hurricane seasons have looked like this 2023 2015 In contrast, the Strongest La Nina season since 2011 looked like this: 2020 Tied 2nd Strongest La nina season.. 2016 Tied 2nd Strongest La nina season.. 2022 You can see generally more E -> W trajectory of storms in La Nina seasons vs more S -> N in El Nino seasons.

Daily records 4 days with an average of beating previous record by +10F/day.

New NWS forecast has downtown Phoenix hitting 108F Friday, with 11 days to go in the month. This is up there in std's of top records broken. June 2021 in the PNW and SW Canada comes to mind.

NWS forecast for Phoenix.. their all time March high on record was March 26, 1988, 100F. They have only hit 100 once in March (someone correct me if I'm wrong, that's what I've seen other people post). Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 102. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 105. Friday Sunny, with a high near 107. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 106. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 103.

It will be interesting to see if RONI vs ONI makes a difference this season, because RONI will be ~-0.5c vs ONI. That difference in Moderate Nino range is historically about 2 NS/yr 2023 was +1.1c RONI (ASO), and +1.6c ONI and that season had 20 Named Storms, and slightly above average ACE. (SSTAs in the Atlantic so far this year are nothing close to 2023).

^Well we've had 5/6 recent years La Nina (RONI), and 7/10 recent years La Nina. In 20-21 we were -0.1c away from Strong Nina, so I don't think we are "due". Actually history shows that 4/6+ ENSO-state occurrence flips in the following 3-5 years 2:1

And temps higher than the low 60s

I think getting off for a thunderstorm is a little ridiculous, temps will be what low 60s? But kids probably go to school too much anyways.