Stormchaserchuck1

Nice run of -SOI 14 Sep 2026 1012.86 1014.90 -25.91 -17.50 -20.30 13 Sep 2026 1013.56 1015.55 -25.61 -17.44 -20.04 12 Sep 2026 1012.91 1015.60 -29.77 -17.32 -19.89 11 Sep 2026 1012.86 1015.40 -28.88 -16.53 -19.86 10 Sep 2026 1012.90 1013.90 -19.73 -15.51 -19.92 9 Sep 2026 1013.04 1013.40 -15.92 -14.62 -20.08 8 Sep 2026 1012.32 1014.50 -26.74 -14.02 -20.17 7 Sep 2026 1013.24 1015.10 -24.84 -13.46 -20.04 6 Sep 2026 1014.43 1015.70 -21.33 -13.18 -19.91

^Looks like it predicted the N. Pacific ridge too, which is rare in El Nino.

Upper 40s tonight. I think it will be cold enough in the Winter. Would be really surprised if we do a scenario like 97-98. Last 2 years we had early cold periods in September and they were both cooler Winters. Would have to be an unfavorable index pattern like +EPO if the Winter goes wrong, only mildly connected to ENSO.

Who's the number 1 WR without Zay and Lane, Bateman? He had about 10 catches last year. We also don't have Likely anymore who had a monster game and is a reason the Giants beat DAL

Well the high ACE = neg NAO hasn't worked well lately, we've had a lot of high ace/la nina seasons. Our last -NAO Winter was 10-11.

We've been hearing for so many years about how high ACE correlates to Winter -NAO. Not one mention of the opposite this year? It probably hasn't even crossed a lot of people minds. Winter +NAO tendency?

Record low ACE to date

That's a monster +AO pattern lol Since the Solar Max peak in 2024, the warm seasons 2024, 2025 and 2026 have been very +ao. I think it's more of a decadal state, and just minimizes the potential for 09-10 type -NAO or 15-16 type +PNA

A seasonal model is never going to predict more than like a +3F month. That's because their accuracy is low and they have a large range of error. East-based Nino/-PDO is about as bad as it gets for long range predictors of Winter CONUS warmth. Hopefully the AO help this year. Baltimore/DC average high never really goes below 40 so we do need some below average temps.

the can'tsips

If Chicago is 0 the rest of the month, they finish +3. And the Euro is showing a big ridge in the medium range. It's not a good forecast, the model can't even factor in the first 6 days right.

LOL maybe the worst 0.0 month lead forecasts in the history of seasonal models Chicago area Iowa

Warm Dec

Ok.. I was under the impression that it was cooler here and cooler in the Rockies. Was just going on memory. I've seen it make some pretty bad short term forecasts the last 2 Summers though. And it was about 2,000 miles off on where the El Nino would be centered, based in the last few months.

Should be interesting to see if we see a +PNA N. Pacific low in October and how much of it. This is quite a streak over the past 7 years: Which has obviously preceded the Winter *2023 was the most n. pacific low +pna of the analog set.