Stormchaserchuck1

February before an El Nino the next year

I don't think the pattern is like 22-23, the Strong Nino in 23-24 changed it up, as did the Solar Max starting in May 2024. I can tell that we want to go El Nino.. Not surprising that we might transition pretty fast. The US 500mb composite for this Winter so far is exactly like what it is before El Nino the next year. Here is February March

It's been a Nina STJ.. too bad because we are having our 2nd below average temp Winter in a row. Last -PDO decadal cycle was also cold and dry.

Real nice -AO showing up at the end of 6z GFS ensembles Correlation with temps (default is positive so -ao is opposite)

I see it briefly at 264hr. The 360hr 0z EPS has a favorable look

I'm thinking after the 21/22 we'll have snow

0z EPS at 360hr is continuing to show a favorable N. Hemisphere pattern for cold, and possibly snow the last few days of January. I like this +PNA in the N. Pacific (which is something we have not seen much of in the last 10 years) And -AO all the way up north.

4 days is still a long ways to go. I'm more worried about this being mostly rain or slop than anything else.

It's the NAM, but

0z NAM is pushing the energy further west at 57hr vs 18z NAM at 63hr fwiw

It's all about the N. Hemisphere 500mb pattern. There are strong patterns in certain places in the hemisphere when DC/Baltimore gets >7" snowstorms. When the pattern is cold, with room to spare, long range threats/patterns are worth following. We have -AO tendency this Winter, December was colder than average in the Northeast and we are probably colder than average in the 2nd half of January. I've been pretty bullish on the Winter pattern general, although the STJ is really dry. The last few days of January has potential, imo. And maybe early February. ENSO subsurface Kelvin wave is occurring, and that historically correlates with more +PNA in the north pacific. Give us -AO running south into a ridge over Greenland, with a 50/50 low under it, and the pattern looks suddenly favorable. Unfortunately it's 15 days out, but it does have support with things actually occurring, like in ENSO, and Winter -AO tendency from -SLP 60-90N this past warm season (correlation good since 2012).

I am liking how the extended range is looking on current modeling. ~Jan 27th timeframe. Not real strong anomalies, but the placement of things looks good

6z NAM at 84hr is much flatter than the 0z GFS at 90hr

Some signs of a 50/50 low getting organized on the 384hr GEFS