Stormchaserchuck1

^Matching developing El Nino's in Apr-May

36/18

I'm not too upset about missing the HECS because it would have been gone in a few days. The Jan 25 storm sticking around for 4th longest on Baltimore record makes this Winter, imo. even though there could have been more light snow events. I think it only snowed here (flurries or more) 11 times the whole Winter. 19 last Winter, and under 10 each of the previous Winters since 2018. A light snowfall drought. Such a thing actually predicts future Winters at 0.2 correlation.

Already 38 here

What is this?? New Acquisition: The Los Angeles Chargers sign former Ravens RB Keaton Mitchell to a 2-year, $9.25 million contract with $5 million guaranteed. Mitchell averaged 6.3 yards per carry

Springs are early: good We get good thunderstorms in the late Spring/Summer 9 warm months of the year The Winter sucks lol Ravens are one of the best NFL franchises

Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting. Models I think are crazy too because they are so used to cold ENSO. Nothing terribly impressive at this time, imo. re: the pattern, SOI and all. Subsurface is warm, but that may take a while to surface.

I'm kind of trepidatious of picking up our top "need" after Malaki Starks. Good WR's are hard to come by - there is a big difference between the good and bad ones. I think when you have an all star QB that can run you have to make the team about speed. At least keep the range of availble picks open, imo.

You can't tell by personal observations, of say snow, that things are progressing in a direction?

We'll see. It's a strong PMM spike relative to the PDO so this is a good test year.

85% of our months are above average these days. The question is how we are relative to that 85% number

The March '26 record +NAO, plus our tendency to go more -PDO relative to everything, and the Winter El Nino/+QBO combo, and NAO decadal + phase, where 20/20 months since 2011 with DJFM monthly NAO >1.11 being all positive! makes me currently lean warm as well. Really curious to see if we get a monster N. Pacific low this Winter though. If we don't get it, it means we have shifted into a different pattern vs 1980-2016, and the -PDO cycle may still be young.

April before a Nino 3.4-based El Nino has the +PMM

Bateman had like 10 catches all year? Lamar is a running threat if they have to cover WR's.. big time variable vs other teams needs. Also injury threat if he has to hold the ball makes it ++variable.

I think it wouldn't hurt to draft a good WR honestly. Especially with Likely gone. Build the team around Lamar. Defenses vary too much year-to-year.