Stormchaserchuck1

You misrepresent things quite often. I get excited about weather, and let some of that excitement come through on the board, hoping to be like a bright light sometimes. I have been very optimistic on this Winter, from the start. I think there was one period in December where the pattern was bad but I predicted the 11" snowstorm well in advance.. remember you were even asking me, if not la nina and el nino then when, and I responded that although nothing was currently showing on models, we will probably be at average snowfall after the next few weeks, this la nina was/is not a "dead pattern".. and here we are. Besides that, it's unbelievable and childish that everything is about someone's bias.. so many extraverts on this board communicate like that. like you can only think in blacks and whites. Nevermind that there is actually a weather forecast being made. I should not get a "doom and gloom" bias from being down on snow over the last several Winters. We have been below average and like 90% of the storms I get right! If model shows snow 5-7 days out, I say too warm or rain, and it rains, that's not a bias! I agree that next Winter is not a definite good year, this Winters ridge in the Rockies and West coast is concerning to me. When we get a warm pattern some future Winter, it could torch. That's not a "doom and gloom bias", Im discussing the science of the situation. Patterns in the west lead us by time, sometimes years. History also says that this Winters pattern of cold NE/warm SW is likely to continue through March, and even Apr-Aug to some extent. I just made a post in ENSO thread about it. We may still have some opportunities this Winter.

Does the pattern usually persist in Feb-March? Top 20 analogs Following Feb 500mb Following Feb Air Temp Following March Air Temp The pattern seems to take a break to +TNH in Feb, then returns in March. It's interesting that models have this N. Pacific High pressure building, although they are south of the normal +TNH position right now. Interestingly, the same Dec-Jan pattern actually holds somewhat through the whole following April - August

Really an interesting Winter for expectation vs trend and actuality. I think models might be a little too overdone on the warm up though, although they do develop +epo for some time which can be very warm. GFS ensembles are really warm around V-day. If we go cold in the 2nd half of Feb, I think the price will rise again.

Very interesting. I am looking for other ways to trade NG, because 1 Futures contract is $12,300, and on margin a month like this can swing +$40k. That's a big move for 1 month. UNG is the Natural Gas ETF, but it has a downward bias too strong to consider. Re: natural gas in an upward trend: It may be, but a current difference between $7.20 for the Feb contract and $4.41 March, says it was more about recent cold this month. The difference was within $0.80 of each other at the start of this month. I'm going to do experiment #2, since February looks like another below average month in the east, and the Jan uptick in NG didn't happen when models had it - ahead or way ahead of time - but at Day-0 when it started in actuality. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61644-2025-2026-enso/?do=findComment&comment=7984701 March Natural Gas contract currently priced $4.416 One month, Feb 2026 estimated, move: +15%. Projected end Feb 27, 2026 end: $5.078

Yeah, true, I was doing March because I thought the volume at the end of the month of Jan could be too low.. but you could have got out of it today comfortably. It was about a +100% price increase for Feb contract from Dec 31 to Jan 30. In the future I'll do the closest month to said forecast.

Yeah, the Rockies and NW are much warmer. Mid Atlantic and Northeast much colder. Larry has gone back to their outlooks of the last 15 years I think and has found that the average seasonal grade is C+/B-.

Practice trial #1 [CPC long range outlook vs Natural Gas Futures price] Contract price at time of comparison: March '26 contract $3.159. Contract price at end of month(end of forecast period): $4.416 Total price difference: +39.8% Experimental predictor: 1-0, +39.8% [monthly] I will continue this in the future, when there is a significant difference between long range predicted temps and short/medium term predicted temps.

CVX one of the best performing stocks, up 5.3% on the week, and 3.3% on the day. If you want to keep it secret, that's fine, but do you suggest there is a lag between NG price and CVX stock? That's something I would research. Understandable if you don't want to go into it. I imagine the CVX stock price rise will continue.. ?

They just keep going and going for this cold Northeast. Someone was saying this could be the first time all 3 Winter months were below average in the NE since 09-10 and 02-03. Natural Gas jumped another 13% today. I'm going to do a month-end report on the CPC Monthly outlook probability vs NG price later this weekend. It was a big success. Now it looks like that even carries through February.

Too bad, it's a beauty

Hard to say if it will be east or west-based, but an El Nino is developing in the subsurface

Looks like it. We were colder than average last Dec - Feb too, even though I don't know if all 3 months were below average.

585dm in Salt Lake City in the dead middle of Winter! Quite a Winter they are having out there in the Rockies and West coast, for a much of the area it's the #1 warmest Winter on record to date (since Dec 1). Makes me nervous about a Stronger El Nino next year.

AO is tanked; we are in a cold pattern for a while. I'd watch for when this starts rising up to neutral, for a bigger storm chance - around V-day or right after.

Is the mean Northern Hemisphere going to exceed +1000dm anomaly at 10mb on the daily? Sometimes the PV will split but it will be stronger than average on one side, if not 2 sides of the hemisphere.. those don't really translate to -NAO's +time. In February, the +10mb to -NAO lag starts at +20 days, and at the end of the month it's +15 days.