Stormchaserchuck1
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Wow, you forecasted a -PNA in 23-24. Congrats on that, I think that's a really good forecast. PNA region ended up having an anomaly of +45dm for DJFM -
We haven't had a +PNA month in 7 months. Recent winters have skewed very ridgey in the N. Pacific relative to ENSO. I mean I don't think this winter will have a la nina pattern but I would definitely not expect a N. Pacific vortex like 97-98, 82-83, 15-16 in the mean.
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I think that El Nino favors -EPO more than the historical analog composite has. May and October are good examples of this. EPO runs more Polar though than Hadley-mid latitude Cell meeting place, so the overall correlation/connection is lower. More random than your average El Nino year. I'd say it's 50/50. There has been -H5 this Summer 60-90N which since 2012 has switched for the cold season almost every time. -AO I think can sometimes run into -EPO in short durations.
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Probably not, since the El Nino developed we have seen 7 anomalous-sustained PNA ridges vs 0 troughs. It's usually the other way around. 6 straight months of -PNA, and PNA for Aug looks to be around 0.0.
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STJ is strong in El Nino analogs. This is all El Nino's minus all La Nina's in the Fall -PDO goes dry in the Fall, which is probably what he's pointing to.
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What was your Winter forecast for the Pacific in 2023?
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I think you are hugging analogs a bit too much. I know 2 of these were Weak Nino's but here's the last 3 El Nino Winters since 2016.
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It's a SE ridge pattern in the cold season. Will be interesting to see if we get a SE Canada ridge like is typical of Nino's or if the US pattern gets washed out to something different this Winter.
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Nothing but Aleutian ridge as far as I can see on models ENSEMBLE LOOP
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In some months the PDO correlates higher with US Temperature than ENSO. In a few months it actually scores higher than the PNA!
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October 2024 PDO hit a 150-year low. Then in July 2025 it beat that, going lower. Now relative to ENSO it's probably just as impressive as Oct 2024 and July 2025. Don't think you can call a peak in the cold phase yet.
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Something to consider as models show nearly a 6000dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands in 4-5 days, here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
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Everyone falls into the analog trap. 23-24 didn't couple and it peaked at +2.0c Here are the last 3 El Nino Winters:
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@40/70 Benchmark 23-24 maxed at -30dm in N. Pacific off the coast of CA (WPO area doesn't count) and the bigger story was probably +45dm south of the Aleutian islands See Larry's post
