Stormchaserchuck1

22z RAP is looking really good at hr21.. west of the 18z GFS with trough. Sometimes RAP and Hrr get a little storm happy, but sometimes it does catch an oncoming trend for heavier banding as well

It's actually a myth that Nina's favor the coastal areas. Randomness from not enough analogs. The La Nina main effect is a stronger North Pacific High, which is a slight SE ridge correlation in the cold season. The patterns aren't always uniform El nino or La nina either, there are many other factors that cause what happens.

21z RAP has me getting 15-18"

And a log cabin specifically

It's not that bad because shorter wavelengths give us a favorable H5 low in the Gulf of Alaska. Our biggest snowstorms historically have that -H5 anomaly

It's actually not a big anomaly, because we have a 50/50 low and strong Gulf of Alaska 500mb low. NAO is technically positive, but there is ridging left over from the previous -NAO over the Hudson bay/E Canada, with a trough underneath of it. 500mb pattern close to us in latitude and longitude is pretty favorable.

15z RAP keeps it rain for a while along I-95 while heavier rates change it to heavy snow in eastern MD/DE. Weird run.

NAM throws a nice band back west Monday morning. Has the coastal low at 966mb

Guess the super warm temps yesterday and high of 50 today isn't going to matter much.. I'd much rather it snow than be right lol

Hrr is a blizzard! 12" here Stalls snowing well into Monday

I would be pretty excited if the Euro showed that

Let's see. These types of situations might go with the models that are a few degrees warmer. I'm not just saying that - many storms hold the warm air when they are riding a frontal boundary like this, especially around DC.

It's a much better model. NAM might be worse than the GFS.

Even at 60hrs, I'll take the Euro over the NAM.

I'm sure it's been mentioned but the 6z Euro is really warm. I was thinking models would start gravitating over to the GFS yesterday, when it was consistent and increasing every run, and other models were starting to trend. That was like 6 runs in a row with a near blizzard! We just don't do big snows without an optimal setup these days. These frontal boundary stationary fronts, with us being on the warm side, always go this way.