Stormchaserchuck1

I did a statistic analysis once that had a 0.25 correlation to the pattern after 2007, a 0.30 correlation to the pattern after 2013, and a 0.40 correlation to the pattern 2019-2023. It dropped a little bit since 2023, but is still in the ~0.35 correlation range. Historically, the correlation as not as high but still there (0.05 to 0.10 before 2007)

What exactly are you asking? That is a -NAO with the Pacific having greater anomalies and overpowering it. This -PNA/+EPO/-NAO vs +PNA/-EPO/+NAO has been a common pattern since 2007, and more since 2013. When the NAO goes positive again later in January I would expect the Pacific to also change phases, unless ENSO is completely overpowering this year. See how the Stratosphere warming +lag is correlating to -NAO conditions last week of Dec/early Jan? I was talking about this when EPS ensembles were showing +0.5 NAO through the time (graph that don s. previously posted). Models have changed in the last few days to have +heights in and around Greenland.

Yeah, look at how there is consistency. This is what I would expect. Usually the Winter pattern sets up in Nov/Dec and persists. In the Pacific the Winter pattern can even set up as early as Sept/Oct. If the atmosphere is Nina-like right now, I don't see why it would be +PNA in Jan, although 7 of the last 7 is like a 1:25 random type of thing. The 384hr ensemble means still have a very strong Aleutian ridge, +300dm in early Jan. It's also showing no signs of letting up, strengthening in anomaly between 372hr - 384hr. Kudos to those who said La Nina effects would happen this Winter. The pattern with a dry STJ and flooding in the NW is actually Moderate/Strong Nina like. 2nd year PDO's, where the PDO didn't correlate year 1 have really high correlation numbers in year 2 for whatever reason.

Yeah, it neutralizes. If you start from the most extreme point, it should come toward evening out. Still, ENSO is a powerful factor so I would have thought the +PNA January's would be more extreme. 6/7 were +PNA January's though, and since 1980, 5/5 were +PNA January's. It neutralizes the other side/point. Still, a net neutral signal in January-ENSO is something. Will be interesting to watch and see how this January evolves, I do know that Natural Gas led these Euro weeklies and all this warm stuff for Jan by some time! I'm going to say that they are probably too warm, but we'll see.

Hey Larry, All of your examples 1950-1980 were -PNA January. Then you have only 7 examples after 1980.. now 7/7 is a strong point, I agree, but it might be in the field of random if you consider what ENSO is/does. A good test would be the opposite: What did January do in +ENSO after a +PNA December? What there a difference 1950-1980 and after 1980 (I haven't run the data, but will say probably not - just guessing). My map in the last post includes that, so since it rolls forward to a pretty strong N. Pacific ridge in January, I'm thinking it probably doesn't check out the other way around: (does +PNA Dec lead to -PNA Jan in +ENSO?).

I don't really get this "negative ENSO turned -PNA to +PNA" since 1980 thing. 1. Why does it only start in the 1980s? Data was not unreliable before then, so it's not like you're starting from a blank point. I think a lack of examples increases the odds of random. If it didn't work before 1980, that's telling, not an ignored difference. 2. That's not what Negative ENSO does. Negative ENSO does not support a +PNA in January. The Hadley cell is extended in the N. Pacific in La Nina more often than not, and that supports -PNA. Since we are having such a strong -PNA December, here is a fun roll forward. This is what 500mb January looks like after -PNA Dec.. this is a total composite of 73 years, both - and + signs considered, going back to 1948: That's an Aleutian ridge in the mean for January. But the ridge is a little further NE, which makes January a cold month for a lot of the US. The reason why it will sometimes switch is the MJO runs if 45-day cycles and Kelvin and Rossby waves sometimes run in 45-60 day cycles. We don't have a strong phase of those things now -- it will be interesting to see if we do go more +PNA after the 1st week of January. I think you are discovering a high mathematical random skew.

Well it's 14F with 7" of snow outside now. It's going to be quite different. Everyone was posting about models biasing cold earlier in the year, but PNA's at -2 to -3std for an extended period stick. Models don't bust that bad and they don't change to cold in the pattern late Dec/early Jan.

Christmas on the 0z GFS

So easy not to have a bias in science/math..

My average high gets down to 38 on the coldest day of the year, Jan 27. I think the average high is low 40s in early Jan. Problem with -PNA is that it's rarely very below (besides behind storm systems/cold fronts). It hits "average or above" at a 0.85 correlation. Also, Jan has a bigger SE ridge correlation than December

7" of snow here Ray, I probably beat you. How much snow did you end up getting? (It's Dec 14th)

Good news is we have 2 days with highs in the 20s coming up! Bad news is it warms up Wed, near 50 Thursday, then we will probably have to wait until a little into January for another snow with the PNA dipping to -3 in the coming time.

That is one heck of a -PNA we need to take down. The signal on 384hr ensemble mean is +300dm! That's the average of 21 members. Then after the RNA goes away, it usually takes a few days to flush out the pattern here downstream. Kind of tough to get that change as early as New Years. Models don't typically bust on a -3 PNA by any more than 1std.

A winter wonderland.. I measured 6"+ in the grass Here's my 6" ruler

The Euro weeklies and EPS weeklies did warm up long range +days after the move though. I agree though, that it is predictable if you are good at forecasting, from what I've seen tracking it so far. If Jan-Feb end up being cold (which is a chance imo), the price will rebound to over $4 probably. It's not the gospel, but it does accentuate moves more than model runs, which seem a little behind.