Stormchaserchuck1
-
Posts
5,400 -
Joined
-
Last visited
2 Followers
About Stormchaserchuck1
Recent Profile Visitors
32,825 profile views
-
I don't think I've ever gone with above average snowfall since returning to the boards in 2017. I think 18-19 was showing some promise in the Fall but that winter was a disaster. I think whether we get above or below will depend on the AO/NAO this Winter. As long as signs are pointing to them being negative, you have to love the El Nino precip pattern. Unfortunately we've had something like 14 +NAO Winters in a row. The last 2 Winters have been -AO, so there has been some variation in that index. Also, global cold patterns are reversing hard right now. It snowed in Montana late June then a few weeks later Billings, MT hit an all-time high of 111 (beating previous record of 108). The last two DJF's were cold then March '26 was warmest everby a large margin. Same in March '25. A few days ago we had 5030dm in the arctic, now in a few days the same area makes it to 5700dm! It's "evening out" in a lot of cases. It may be really hard to below temps on a longer term mean, but there could be shorter periods of -AO with snow!
-
Surprisingly weak correlations for Winter 27-28, if anyone is wondering. The El Nino will be highest on record by 15-20% so it's a good data point. I'm actually surprised that it doesn't reverse to a la nina pattern, based on history. -
Since 1950, we have the Strongest El Nino on this date by +20%! That's equivalent to a Weak Nino vs 0.0 Neutral. As just above the 2nd place. Next Summer will be interesting to observe. This is the warm season after all El Nino analogs minus all La Nina analogs, this has nothing to do with global warming. (Summer 2027)
-
^Finally starting to get some N. Hemispheric response to El Nino
-
One of the more healthy subsurface's you will ever see. The 30c mark extends down -100m! That's 86F.
-
We are beating the previous high for this date by +20%!
-
Well we had a 5030dm trough yesterday, and now models warm up the area north of Alaska to +250dm for several days. Really cold periods are reversing. Montana had snow in late June then it was an all time record high in Billings, MT, 111 degrees (beating their old all time record of 108) a few weeks later. DJF 25-26 was cold, then March 26 was record warm by the largest margin ever seen, same thing in 24-25. I don't think the long term mean can really go very cold right now, but we may get periods of below average. Check out the correlation since 2012 though. 2019 was the warmest summer and then 19-20 was the coldest Winter of the period 60-90N.
-
Since 2017 the whole arctic (60-90N) is the leading indicator for Winter pattern 60-90N. It usually reverses.
-
Nice post. Record breaking El Nino it is! This Winter will be an interesting data point! I love extremes, gives a lot of information.
-
Yeah, give me a Super Nino STJ in -NAO/AO. I'm leaning towards above average snowfall right now.
-
I'm loving the -500mb over the Arctic this warm season. 2024 and 2025 are actually good analogs there, and they both had Winter ridging 60-90N.
-
Global warming is obviously occurring?
-
So we are going to base this Winter on the 91-20 average? I can tell you right now that will be warm. I would rather do the most recent 30-years.
-
There is a huge statistical misperception. The odds of getting warm 5/5 times is not that low. Record breaking Nino's should probably be warm realistically 65-70% of the time.
-
Did we break any records today with the 500mb trough over the Arctic? It got down to 5030dm I think. I know at the end of last Aug we set an all time N. Hemisphere record for Aug at something like 4980dm.
