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Stormchaserchuck1

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About Stormchaserchuck1

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    Fallston, MD

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  1. Stormchaserchuck1
    Biggest difference I see is in the central-subsurface. That could mean two things: 1) The event trends more basin wide than east-based going forward (which seasonal models have) 2) There may not be a major La Nina snap-back for 27-28
  2. Stormchaserchuck1
    With +QBO? El Nino by itself does disturb the Stratosphere PV
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    It's hard to assess without Daily Climate Composites page, but right now it looks pretty negative. July 15 is 50% of the way through, and I would say it's about ~-0.4 for DJFM NAO predictor.
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Lowest 30 day SOI since 1997... almost 30 years. It's impact on the global pattern has been nothing very impressive so far however
  5. Stormchaserchuck1
    SOI going wild right now.. up there in a top 7/8 event since the late 1800s per SOI now. 14 Jul 2026 1011.36 1016.35 -36.56 -23.53 -17.62 13 Jul 2026 1010.44 1015.10 -34.53 -23.20 -17.20 12 Jul 2026 1009.89 1015.20 -38.53 -23.21 -16.92 11 Jul 2026 1011.77 1015.80 -30.66 -23.06 -16.66 Currently lowest 30-day SOI since 1997
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Subsurface is actually falling behind 1997 right now (+9c vs +7c). There is however a Kelvin Wave hitting the central-subsurface, so maybe it will increase eastern anomalies in a few weeks. Timing of gravity waves is not always the same in different ENSO events.
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    Western subsurface is not really cold like you see in a lot of developing Super Nino's by now.
  8. Stormchaserchuck1
    I find it interesting that we had a massive N. Pacific low as recent as 15-16. That was a big +PDO year, even before the pattern happened. Is the PDO really that important or is it actually just a global warming occurrence??
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    111 in Billings, MT is insane. They just had snow in Montana 2 weeks ago! Do you guys notice this see-saw happening more times that not, although France is just exceeding and exceeding their records, not wavering back and forth between warm and cold there.
  10. Stormchaserchuck1
    ^ 6000dm is extending all the way to just south of Canada. That has to be some kind of record. Jul-Aug correlation to ENSO. Forgive me for including August but these are the 2 hottest months of the year.
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'm just thinking a 82-83, 97-98, 15-16 monster North Pacific High low pressure may be a thing of the past. Those were monster troughs, Super El Nino driven. Does the PDO really make that much of a difference? -PDO strongest 3 El Nino's. A little different south of the Aleutians lol
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    Maybe neutral in the Pacific. It's all High pressure at the very end Even a "Weak Nino" should be spinning up a low somewhere in the N. Pacific right now. We are obviously in a pattern that is more dominant
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    I'll go warmer on the August pattern This one has nothing to do with -NAO/AO
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    Looking like July is going to be the 6th straight month with -PNA (CPC) 2026 0.79 -0.56 -1.74 -1.26 -1.27 -0.50
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    June was AAO's 6th most extreme month on record, since 1979. 6/570. +2.506
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