78Blizzard

I would take a 50-50 compromise between the GFS and Euro ops at this point and take my chances on precip type.  Cold air will probably be hard to find around here at the surface.

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s not fact and you’re making shit up to make your point I can get the charts and prove it to you if you want no actually I’m not gonna do that I’m fucking had it with you people

I think you may both be talking about different Saturday storms.  If you are talking about the Saturday storm last weekend, yes, the GFS ensembles had shown consistency for 3 days.

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

So this thread will make actually getting a storm out of the 'critical period' to happen -  hey...whatever works.    

I think now would be a great time for Saturday to come back and end up being that event. 

I would only caution that back on the 3rd, the EPS mean looked virtually the same as what you are seeing now for this 2nd possibility we've been tracking for Tuesday, for this Saturday.  

Not sure I see a compelling reason at this time why Tues should be stirring more optimism or confidence. Both Saturday, and that latter one are within a particularly suggestive telecon indication as we've outlined already.  That should offer some confidence above climatology.  It may also be helpful to Tues if Saturday does not have some kind of transitive effect on wave-spacing. Best way to do that is to keep it weak. 

And that caution is well warranted given the track record of 7-8 day threats this winter.

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is the one IMO....been clear Saturday was a corpse for a while now. That said, I do expect precip type issues for some..probably do some sort of an updated write up tomorrow.

Be sure to include your backyard in those precip type issues...

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something tells me you're more likely to see 3-4 shots/hr rates of hard alcohol in Westerly next weekend...you'll probably need it to drown out the cirrus in advance of the next batch of precip type issues mid week, next week.

Just opining on what the model showed as others have been doing since this thread started.

1 hour ago, WeatherWilly said:

Hmmm. I pretty much jack on that. RIP Westerly, RI as well. 

Verbatim Sat PM that would be 3-4"/hr rates in Westerly. 

12 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said:

No real reason to look this far out.  Models have been awful all winter.  This thing will change 1,000 times and expect outcome to be vastly different by that time 

Exactly.  We've seen the GFS blow day 6 runs all winter, and now they even blew a day 1 run.  And I'm not just referring to the clown maps either.

We have often said that we need to nowcast certain systems. IMO this will be an epic nowcast system, especially with the tight gradient.  Plenty of bust potential, up or down.

1 hour ago, BostonWX said:

Pivotal NAM clown with 6-6.5 at BOS

50 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Don't understand that, as it has 10" for me and I'm SW of BOS by about 12 miles.  The Sat PM stuff is about as much as the initial thump here.

Yet the 18z GEFS has 14" for BOS and 5" here.  This stuff is laughable.

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I thought it cut back vs 12z

About the same here.

1 hour ago, BostonWX said:

Pivotal NAM clown with 6-6.5 at BOS

Don't understand that, as it has 10" for me and I'm SW of BOS by about 12 miles.  The Sat PM stuff is about as much as the initial thump here.

15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

My point is it didn’t lessen and If the poster is in Westwood ma he had 1.4 qpf in both runs 

 

Check again, the 18z had 1.99.

GFS cut back QPF here by almost 1/3 from 18z.

5 minutes ago, Thunderblizzard said:

0z RGEM looks like it actually ticked back south.

It did, but looks like the end result was about the same for most.

Hrrr not a good sign for the 0z suite.

The problem for the GFS is that it can only be downhill for it after that last run.  It won't get any better than that for many.  It has been steadfast for 3 days now, so I think changes should be mostly noise this close in.

I have railed on it this winter for showing us favorable outcomes at day 6 that disappeared by go time.  But if it does it now at day 1-2, then what good is it?

Plenty of bust potential in that BOX map.  Just let the NAM's next run trend toward the GFS and they'll be scrambling to update.

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Yeah little change but a boatload of qpf.

Yeah, just about 2" here, with the sleet line barely getting to me and then collapsing into heavy snow.

13 minutes ago, HinghamBoss said:

Another de-amplifying shortwave lifts NE into New Eng as it
encounters strong downstream high latitude blocking. Parent low will
weaken across the eastern Lakes with secondary low becoming dominant
storm as it tracks just south of the New Eng coast. This track will
help to lock in low level cold air, especially away from the coast,
but for this event we will have a pretty strong SW mid level jet
which will bring a warm nose aloft into New Eng. The challenge for
this forecast is how far N this warm nose gets Fri night, how much
of a front end thump is expected Fri night before the warming aloft
and also how much snow falls during Sat over interior northern MA
assocd with mid level low. A lot of moving parts which makes for a
very challenging snowfall forecast. The GFS is on the colder side of
the guidance envelope and we think it is too cold as it typically
has a cold bias aloft as it tends to mix out inversions. The other
consideration will be snow liquid ratios as marginal boundary layer
temps will keep SLR below 10:1, especially outside of the higher
terrain.

Timing, ptype and snowfall...

Snow should overspread the region from SW to NE between 8 pm and
midnight Fri evening. We are not expecting any impacts to the
evening commute. Mainly snow to start across all SNE as temps aloft
are plenty cold enough to support snow, then will have to watch warm
nose aloft lift NE into SNE assocd with a 70-80 kt 700 mb jet.
Current thinking is this will lift further N than what GFS is
indicating and likely get into northern MA. Confidence is not as
high as we would like at this time range as a slight shift north or
south will have a big impact on potential snow accum. We expect a
mix and possible changeover to sleet after midnight in the interior,
with a changeover to sleet then rain near the coast as increasing
easterly winds overwhelm the boundary layer. Soundings show a fairly
deep cold layer in the low levels supportive of more sleet than
freezing rain where changeover occurs. The best chance for all snow
will be across far northern MA, along and north of route 2 corridor.

We have some decent snowgrowth on the front end so a brief period of
moderate to heavy snow is likely Fri night with snowfall rates up to
1"/hr, especially away from the coast. The challenge on the coast is
SLR and potential melting as temps will be near or slightly above
freezing, but nighttime and potential brief heavier rates should
help to make up for this and bring minor accum here before the
changeover to rain.

Basically, they are saying FU to the GFS.

Well, we have a stubborn NAM and a stubborn GFS.  At this point I don't see either/both of them compromising.  The GFS has been consistent every run for days, so I am inclined to go with it.  I see BOX isn't putting up any warnings yet, so they can't be buying the GFS or even much of the other guidance.

NAM @ hr 30 looks colder this run.

Imagine what this place will look like during the next 4 or 5 model runs as we put every tick north or south under the microscope?

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The Canadian also laughs the gfs CCB idea

Is that the same Canadian that just yesterday had over 20" in many areas of SNE, including my backyard?

The 3k NAM looks much better than it did at 18z, but I'm not biting after that 10" it showed here on the last system.

5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I like this a lot actually. Very reasonable ATM.

Obviously they have either ignored the GFS or are saying it's wrong in the making of that map.  Otherwise, they wouldn't have a 0-10% chance for much of SNE.  Even a 20% weighting for it would yield a greater percentage.