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Everything posted by vortmax

  1. Looks like the deformation zone is starting to fill and pivot into WNY...
  2. http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-24
  3. My prediction...For my area (NW Wayne Cty.) thinking 2-3 from warm advection, 3-4 from LP comma, and 10+ from LE.
  4. Let's see if KBUF's accumulation map reflects the more favorable LP track.
  5. According to this site the LP will follow the NY/PA border...
  6. 2 areas of LP...southern one slightly stronger...let's see where they merge.
  7. Looks like the LP will end up right over WNY (or just a tad south)...
  8. I'm guessing this will over-perform based on the dynamics, warm lakes, and weenie-wishing.
  9. Yes, they merged all the counties into a single update to the 10+ version. Makes sense based on their snow map and less complex as well.
  10. Delta, great post. How did people react with the lightning strikes?
  11. Let's see how it holds together on its way South...
  12. They are getting out before the Thruway closes...
  13. Too bad the NWS couldn't get a big investment to add a couple thousand solar-powered weather stations throughout the country for a greater resolution of obs and model input.
  14. While I enjoy the sarcasm, Rochester is usually underrepresented (especially with LES events) on this forum, so I really appreciate Tim's input - he's usually right!
  15. If the Ontario band can hold together during the NW veering, then someone in our parts can get a pretty nice amount where it stalls and before it backs.
  16. Can't say those of us that sit east of ROC are thrilled with this setup, but definitely happy the pattern is finally changing with some staying power.
  17. I'd say mid-December will be our best bet shot for our first big synoptic & LES events. Almost all of the teleconnectors in that time frame are trending in our favor: -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, -AO, +WPO, even the MJO is moving towards phases 7&8 (although there's lag with this one). Looks encouraging to me. We shall see.
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