vortmax
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Everything posted by vortmax
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Looks like the deformation zone is starting to fill and pivot into WNY...
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http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=BUF-N0Q-1-24
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Already starting to fill in...
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My prediction...For my area (NW Wayne Cty.) thinking 2-3 from warm advection, 3-4 from LP comma, and 10+ from LE.
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Let's see if KBUF's accumulation map reflects the more favorable LP track.
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According to this site the LP will follow the NY/PA border...
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2 areas of LP...southern one slightly stronger...let's see where they merge.
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It's a water vapor hurricane! lol
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Looks like the LP will end up right over WNY (or just a tad south)...
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I'm guessing this will over-perform based on the dynamics, warm lakes, and weenie-wishing.
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Yes, they merged all the counties into a single update to the 10+ version. Makes sense based on their snow map and less complex as well.
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Delta, great post. How did people react with the lightning strikes?
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Let's see how it holds together on its way South...
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18z runs are questionable. May just be a blip.
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Parents have 2" fluff in NE Monroe Cty.
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They are getting out before the Thruway closes...
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Bring it!
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Bump...lol
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The Fulton snow hole...lol
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Too bad the NWS couldn't get a big investment to add a couple thousand solar-powered weather stations throughout the country for a greater resolution of obs and model input.
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While I enjoy the sarcasm, Rochester is usually underrepresented (especially with LES events) on this forum, so I really appreciate Tim's input - he's usually right!
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They tend to add those during the event...
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If the Ontario band can hold together during the NW veering, then someone in our parts can get a pretty nice amount where it stalls and before it backs.
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Can't say those of us that sit east of ROC are thrilled with this setup, but definitely happy the pattern is finally changing with some staying power.
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I'd say mid-December will be our best bet shot for our first big synoptic & LES events. Almost all of the teleconnectors in that time frame are trending in our favor: -NAO, -EPO, +PNA, -AO, +WPO, even the MJO is moving towards phases 7&8 (although there's lag with this one). Looks encouraging to me. We shall see.
