vortmax

Can't beat that SE shore convergence. Jealous!

This clipper may spit out a tenth or 2?

Just when you think all is lost... They up the totals. LOL

Even Lake Simcoe is firing up...

N Oswego Cty getting hammered...

The 18Z NAM shows the Wed night clipper further north as well...may get another 1-2 from that up to the south shore - with potential light LE on a NW flow once it passes.

Nice write up from the BUF AFD: East of Lake Ontario, westerly flow should allow for a potential short-lived by strong lake band late this afternoon/early evening with a focus on Oswego County. Some shore banding is possible too, but this could be fairly significant in terms of blowing snow and snow rates exceeding 2"/hr in places. Later tonight, an arctic boundary should allow this band to sink south. 12Z models and hourly HRRR runs continue to show this boundary moving across the Lake Ontario shoreline around/after midnight with a mesolow on the west side. Have yet to see it show up on observations, but it`s worth watching the Georgian Bay for development later this afternoon. Once this moves through, expect multibands on an NW flow primarily affecting Wayne east through Oswego County into Wed AM. A connection to the Georgian Bay may continue new band formation across the shoreline Wed - first over Niagara County, then east to Wayne County be the end of the day. Like Erie, resulting (additional) snow accumulations through Wednesday will vary substantially from location to location due to transitory banding, but here are a few areas of interest: * Shorelines west of Rochester: 1-5 inches * Rochester Area..............: 4-10 - highest E, less W. * Wayne to Oswego.............: Possibly a foot overnight. * Tug Hill Plateau............: 6-12 highest south. * Watertown...................: Highly variable, but in general 3-5.

There is a wind shift with the front...looks NNW...

GFS extended verbatim. Anyone know what the EC extended shows (not that it really matters this far out)...

1241 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Travel will be very difficult at times. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected. * WHERE...Monroe, Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties. Greatest accumulations from far eastern Monroe County eastward to Oswego County. * WHEN...Until 7 PM Wednesday.

What was it previously?

Looks like Fulton is gonna be the hot spot...

Exactly, depending how far north of the boundary you sit.

Agreed. +AO and +NAO isn't always bad if the other indices are favorable and there's sufficient cold air/snow cover in our hemi. The GFS shows a frontal boundary from SW to NE sliced through the US with many waves training along. If we fall on the northern side, then it could mean lots of snow (or ice). This happened over a 5-7 day period sometime in the '96-'98 time frame bringing 1-2 feet of snow to ROC. Can be a great setup! The MJO is progged to move into 7 & 8 as well over the next week or so.

The PNA looks to go back positive after a few days of negative. The EPO looks to go strongly negative again as well. AO is close to neutral with a positive NAO. At least the Pacific doesn't appear to dominate the flow heading into Christmas.

Seeing returns here:

Meso low definitely skirting shore...big flakes in Webster...

Another meso spinning up - may just brush southern shore counties as it moves ESE:

GB firing up...

Surprised they didn't mention the one that came onshore already...

Was, now clouded over with flurries.

Blue sky overhead here...

Ding Ding!

Anyone want to guess what's in the orange circle?? Have fun Niagara Cty!

Actually, this one is old...when I add the latest one, it looks fine in the preview, but then posts the old one when I submit. How to you clear your image cache in the profile? Someone mentioned how to do this earlier in this thread...