vortmax

Only 2" here.

Radar starting to fill in. No precip here yet.

Looks like a children's coloring book... Lol

I'll be happy when I start seeing them lower their temps... Regarding the models, until all the pieces of energy get onshore, they usually have a tough time.

BUF still calling for SE winds and 40+ on Saturday...

KBUF says winds will veer to the SE on Sat. This won't be good at all. Again, if we can stay NE with just enough cold air N of the lake, we may be able to stay frozen.

Well, our area usually warms easily due to downsloping, however, if the winds can stay NE and not veer to SE, then it may be a nice surprise. Even if the temps stay in the mid-30s, then at least the snow pack we potentially get beforehand may survive. Niagara cty. may have the best chance of staying cold.

KBUF HWO mentions warm temps and heavy rain on Sat...guess they're not buying the colder solutions...

It'll be a close call. If we can keep a NE wind, it may be more of a mix. The Canadian is a close call as well. Nice to see a trend towards a more suppressed system and more amped system for Christmas.

Lock it in!

The Canadian 12z was the first to catch on...

12z CMC has a more suppressed LP track for the 23rd giving snow to WNY all the way through Christmas day. Interesting.

That cutter on the 23rd may be a blessing in disguise for a white Christmas morning! We shall see...

Speaking of tea kettle snow... It's happening right now where we are on the St. Lawrence. Fluffy flakes falling.

It's usually when a LE forms over the lake, but doesn't push on shore. The snow then 'boils over' to the near shore. Usually very dry (30-50:1) and puffy flakes. Seen it many time when at school in Oswego.

Tea kettle?

Been really enjoying this St. Lawrence band today. Perfect timing to visit the Thousand Islands! About 3-4" of fluff this morning. Been fun watching ships go by in the snow while sitting in a hot tub.

I'm really liking the GFS 7-10 day look as it's that classic baroclinic SW-to-NE setup that may stick around for a bit with multiple potential waves. It's been showing this for many day now starting the 23rd. Anyone have the Euro's 7-10 day?

I'm up near Alex Bay this weekend and we're getting moderate snow now with huge flakes. I'm hoping for a more southerly wind component!

This band stretches across the entire lake!

Potential 1-3 (20-5:1) for the south shore with some enhancement...

Also interesting disc for tonight's event for northern Wayne cty.... Lake effect snows have weakened this afternoon with the arrival of drier air on the back side of the departing shortwave. Winds will continue to diminish through this evening as a narrow ridge of high pressure builds across the region. Diminishing winds may allow a brief narrow convergent band of snow focused near northern Wayne and Cayuga counties early this evening. Some mesoscale guidance hints at this, with a quick couple inches from this not out of the question. Meanwhile, a clipper low centered near Lake Michigan this afternoon will race into western Pennsylvania late tonight. This will bring a general light snow of an inch or two to locations south of Lake Ontario. In addition to this, there will be some weak lake enhancement which will lead to locally higher amounts. A convergent band will develop across Lake Erie and eventually push onshore into the Western Southern Tier late tonight. This combined with slightly greater synoptic snows supports advisory amounts with an additional 3 to 5 inches of snow expected tonight. Also, locally higher amounts are possible southeast of Lake Ontario when moisture from the clipper potentially enhances lingering lake effect snow. A warning is already in effect for these locations due to ongoing snows. Confidence is lower here, but a narrow band of snow meeting advisory criteria is possible here also.

It looks like multiple bands have been sitting over Niagara & Orleans Ctys for a long time. Are there any current reports or webcams from either?

I could see this one over-performing for us.

It's quite the potent SW though...