vortmax

Lake water is warm, longer than normal event...but worried about the wind speeds - usually goes against big amounts.

KBUF being quite bullish... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 NYZ004-005-090345- /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.190109T1800Z-190111T1100Z/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga- Including the cities of Newark and Fair Haven 231 PM EST Tue Jan 8 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 14 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph causing areas of blowing snow. * WHERE...Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through late Thursday night. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Looks like rain in Erie, PA. https://www.epicwebstudios.com/about/office-webcams/9th-and-french-webcam/

Great summary PDF "A Quick Guide to Important Drivers of US Winter Weather Patterns". Check it out. http://www.frontierweather.com/WinterClimateDrivers.pdf

The track does look quite suppressed with a weak LP.

Without a firmly established -EPO, we will have the possibility of pacific moderation events.

Thanks a lot for ruining our winters!

For once it would be nice to get a synoptic thump and not rely on spotty LE...

another cutter...

Hopefully it is only a hiccup.

Tea Kettle?

Normally like these events, but seem to lose power quite a bit! Hope it stays on!

I'll take #41 for $1000 Alex.

Very nice writeup BW!

Canadian upstream radar looks dry, was expecting to see more off GB.

They seem to happen all the time for Niagara & Orleans ctys!

Snowing like crazy here! You guys to the east may be in for a morning surprise.

LOL

ROC (at least eastern subs) could eek out a white Christmas: Given a flow setup for multi-band activity and a lack of long duration to the west-northwest flow regime, accumulations should be fairly light, however a few inches will be possible in the favored areas...with dusting/one half inch totals elsewhere. A short period of drying and even some clearing will follow Saturday night before an Alberta Clipper-type system approaches. Weak warm advection off the deck will allow for light snow to develop as it enters the picture during the afternoon on Sunday. Once again, even with weak lift and saturation, efficient snow crystal growth with the dentritic growth layer dipping into the lifting layer should allow for some accumulation of snow. This will be largely modulated by afternoon temperatures at least for a time, so the lower elevations and more urban areas would be the least likely to see accumulating snow, however as the system lingers into Sunday night and eventually northwest flow lake effect snow showers become more common in its wake, additional chances for accumulating snows exist for the snow belts.

That map would be inline with their discussion. Hoping the cold air moves in before the moisture leaves.

Will be interesting to see what BUF says in the AFD. --- Just read...pretty much lower elevations will be lucky to squeak out an inch. Man, if we just had some colder air, this next system would've been huuuge.

Another 50-100 eastward shift may turn things in our favor. Here's to hoping for a Christmas miracle!

The North. Marginal, but may be enough to get that grass covered. We'll see.

12z GFS looks better with LP placement (850 freezing line moving east quickly). Canadian as well. This may have a nice potential for a couple inches on the back-end. Curious to see the Euro. 00z Sat: 06z Sat: 12z Sat:

84hr NAM is out of it's wheelhouse, but still nice to see LP to the east.