mikeeng92

However, past events when dealing with marginal thermals have often trended towards more sleet/freezing rain as opposed to snow across much of the area. As such, confidence in precip types remains rather low. However, confidence in an impactful winter event with at least Winter Weather Advisory level snow/sleet/freezing rain has increased. Winter Storm Watches will likely be need for a portion of the FA (the highest confidence being along and N of I-64 with Richmond being in an area of greater uncertainty). However, per collaboration with WPC and neighboring offices, will hold off on any headlines for this update cycle and will reevaluate overnight. From Wakefield

Looks like pieces of confluence are working their magic

Wow. The 0z Euro is way south also with the 3" line in Petersburg. We have the A team of Euro/UK vs GFS/ICON

lol. Looks like it amps the confluence and weakens the vort at the perfect time

oh heyyyy

Still holding out hope for 1-3” followed by some sleet then more dry slot than rain. Would be quite a welcome after the last few years and most likely stick around for some time.

NAM coming into range and shows a nice front end thump Sunday night. Will ride or die with the NAM

Welp the 18z euro takes away

The painful part of the storm is the heaviest snow is so narrow. I’m hoping we manage 2” before any precip cutoff or changeover.

12z UK is a very nice 6-10” across central VA. Best case scenario. I like where we sit right now with that block being a stable feature.

Would take this storm in a heartbeat and it was nice. But I remember busting low on that due to awful snow ratios. Nothing but needles.

You know this storm is real cause it’s showing the classic west end to RIC cutoff lol. just want to see a storm keep showing up, with blocking we’ll have chance

19th looks very interesting

1/23/16, from what I remember we got pretty lucky in Richmond. Day 1 was a bust with plenty of sleet and mixing. Then on day 2 the wraparound over performed and put on an amazing show.

Hopefully this band stalls a bit before pulling north.

Snow 33 in tuckahoe.

Yep, going to need some luck for sure. Radar looks pretty good in Northern NC. HRRR starting to tick back south.

12z FV3 brings a heavy band of snow this afternoon through the west end.

Short range models develop a heavier band around Richmond in the 3-5 pm time frame. That will be our chance.

1/3/2022 I think

Monster GFS run ALEET @RIC Airport

Thanks RIC, I agree, a cold 1-3” that can stick around for a few days is a big win.

The euro being suppressed so much gives me hope that this won’t trend too far north for us.

Wow, didn’t realize it was that bad.