mikeeng92

Models look to be targeting the east end of the metro for the worst of the ice. That is .50-.75" of FRAM accretion in the blue. Matches up with other models.

Quite the language from Wakefield: KEY MESSAGES... 1) A devastating winter storm for a large portion of the area will impact the region Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday night with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain expected. These amounts of the combined wintry precip will lead to devastating impacts and widespread power outages and tree damage. Very cold temperatures and windy conditions early next week will lead to long last impacts.

The storm ice totals remain relatively similar to the previous forecast with the highest amounts of up to 0.75" of ice across the south central to Richmond metro areas in addition to 2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet. There has been a slight shift in favoring sleet rather than freezing rain for the far northern counties, but ice totals up to 0.5" of ice is expected, on top of the 4 to 7 inches of snow/sleet. The precip will likely end as another batch of light snow before moving away from the area. These amounts of the combined wintry precip will lead to devastating impacts and widespread power outages and tree damage. Very cold temperatures and windy conditions early next week will lead to long last impacts.

.A devastating winter storm for a large portion of the area will impact the region Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday night with snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain expected.

Wow

Still hard to believe how far north this system has trended with the artic high and 50/50 with blocking.

These things usually start an hour or two early either way she should be fine with all the salt on 95.

Wow 0z Euro doubled our snow from 18z

Quick look at the NAM for RVA area looks like 2-4” of snow . 3-4” of sleet. And freezing rain QPF of like .3”. encouraging that it showed more sleet vs zr

Wakefield sounding the alarm

Man 12/18 was so nice. UKMET gives us 2.4” of QPF. Incredible amounts of frozen whatever.

Not out of the woods yet. Sunday during the day looks colder but Sunday night could be a period of freezing rain or drizzle.

Was anyone around for the February 1994 ice storm? Saw that storm mentioned as an analog

Wakefield on the ice threat:

Yea they're legit. Nice to see them more in line with the GFS.

He does. I don’t subscribe to his Patreon to see the full explanation.

From Allan Huffman

Even if you cut the zr QPF in half for sleet, it’s bad .

Euro is very icy

I was in NY for the 2007 Valentines Day storm and we got 8" of snow then 4" of sleet and it was a high impact event. Turned into a glacier, very difficult to plow.

GFS best case scenario. CMC too amped, toss. Euro AI was still good for us I thought.

Huge to have this model still look good.