LakeEffectOH

LEH is on! Ripping out here! Nice big flakes...

Got the better part of an inch today in Chesterland.  Checked the radar and from what I can see, the back side is now moving in with some lake enhancement perhaps.

Looks as if the back side may well be the  more productive part for this event.

2 hours ago, buckeye said:

I was wondering what jb was thinking.   I actually don't have a subscription.  I'm sure he was using March '93 as his analog.  

He was...

I think this one will come down to the wire. 

We're so close.  May not be a blockbuster but I think we will see decent accumulations...likely to be much more than what we've seen so far this winter.

Another thing, during La Ninas in particular, winter storm tracks, coming this way, have, verified more NW than modeled.  Such events have ended up bringing decent accumulations (3"-5")well NW (Detroit, for example) when modeling called for like a coating to an inch though I doubt this go-around will take accumulating snows that far NW.

I do remember (correct me if I'm wrong) the Christmas storm last year...for 4-6 days before the storm, models ECMWF, GEM, GFS) were fairly consistent on bringing a good storm to NE OH and NC OH.  A white Christmas looked like a good bet.  About 3 days prior to the storm, the GFS began playing games as one run had the heavy snow back as far west as South Bend IN and east central Michigan while seemingly, the very next run, the GFS lurched the max amounts well east of here progging paltry amounts (coating to 2") to most areas except the OH-PA border which was progged to get like 3-4".  Within 36 hours of Christmas day, GFS finally caved to the other models which always had NE OH in a favorable location.

We shall see...

Soooooooo tired of hearing nothing more than the term inch or less in the wx snow accum forecasts...

"Unwillingness" seems about right...

17 hours ago, NEOH said:

Just a coating so far today. Winds are picking up and turning to the NW. Maybe a few hours to come of better organized snow. Expectations are low. Considering how bad this winter has been it has been cold enough to cool the lake without a significant LES event. If temps drop low enough tonight the western basin will have expansive ice cover come tomorrow. 

Most likely the ice has expanded since Sunday.

1) Image below is from yesterday; most likely from the early am before any major freezing took place.

2) Image below is my wild arse (WAG) guess of the current ice cover. Edited areas are within the red circle (Area of Interest).  Note:  Again, just a WAG from 30 years of watching similar western base ice cover spread over a similar  2-3 day sub-freezing temperature regime.

12 hours ago, OHweather said:

Overall, think the dry airmass, no upstream help, stronger winds, shear, and lack of convergence all added up to the disorganized appearance today. Just not enough to really focus the bands. I think after Friday's event overperformed a bit with an upstream connection into the east side and a good band there, that when models hinted at some similarities there was an urge to jump on it again. It wasn't unfounded but there were some negatives to overcome. I thought we'd get more than we did! Have gotten a tenth or two this evening here. 

OHweather,

Thanks for the post mortem. Yeah, this one sucked...I didn't know that stronger wind speeds over the lake added to the disorganization of yesterday's event. What do the elevated wind speeds do to lessen the effectivity of the snow bands?

Also, what do you think of the synoptic storm early next week.  The 12z GFS shows its track much further west and the 12z GEM shows increased accumulations (a chunk of that is lake effect/enhanced though.  Seems to be a little more potential than the overnight models depicted.

2 hours ago, OHweather said:

Definitely a dud in NE Ohio. Not sure if Erie County has gotten more, satellite looks better out that way. Winds will turn NW over the next few hours and a lot of areas will see snow, perhaps with a bit more organization briefly along the trough, but nothing really notable in the cards for this event it seems. 

I'll say!  Here in Chesterland, we just got over an inch.  Snow bands this afternoon were weird.  They looked all sliced up.  Was this caused by shearing at a different altitude?

Looks like there is little moisture headed this way for the next week.  Bone dry...

12 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

It’s why every winter I yearn for a good clipper pattern. We haven’t had that type of pattern for years, but it really is the only way to get snow around here. Small amounts, yes typically, but I’d take a clipper every 3 days or so to lay down some snow. Plus, there’s always a chance one or two over perform which can be a nice surprise.  

Latest ensembles do show some possible clipper opportunities in the next couple of weeks, so there's that.  Caveat, all can totally change in 6-8 hours, Lol.  However, there's been some persistence in the ensembles over the past day or two and the MJO looks, as of now, to stay in phase 7 and even 8 for the next two weeks.  Optimistic here.

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Snowfall has certainly been paltry so far, particularly in the snow belt. For Cleveland, this has been the eighth least snowiest start to the winter season. And at Erie, the 7th least snowy start and the least snowiest since 1944. Some missing data is noted for Erie in 1924 and 1944. I think that's probably just days where no snow was observed but the observer left the entry blank, but if it's true missing data, then those years might have been snowier than represented in this list.

What's really weird is that we've really lost out a lot on lake effect.  Part of the reason, IMHO, is the prevalence of a +NAO over the last several winters. With a +NAO, the trough axis tends to stay to our west and the resulting cutters only bring flurries as there is little residual moisture after a storm cuts into Wisconsin or Michigan.  Also if LES conditions are better (more moisture and arctic air) a +NAO can result in a more WSW flow sending the LES to Buffalo.

Note, the NAO was mostly negative in Dec 2020 and we had not one but two awesome snowstorms.

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Ha. This has been a rough stretch for sure. Not a good look overall - cold front comes through tomorrow with a west southwest wind direction behind it. Then the "storm" goes south whiffing us. Perhaps a brief window of LES on Friday before ridging moves in. 

Interesting that NWS CLE has 1-2" Thurs nite and 1-2" for Friday.  Would be nice if we could at least winter things up with 2-4" of snow.  More snow forecast early next week, lasting from Sunday nite thru Tuesday. 

2 hours ago, zinski1990 said:

Why do we always get screwed in Indiana and ohio

Warm tongue of death (WTOD): eastward moving warm air hits the west Appalachians and is forced northward.  Especially bad in the eastern 2/3s of OH.  Storm doesn't necessarily have to be a Cutter to do this...

This upcoming event looks like a total dud.  Look for the forecast accumulations to be reduced to the customary, as of late, an inch or less.  A term I thoroughly dislike.

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

virginia winter

Don't forget Tennessee...

19 hours ago, NEOH said:

The event definitely shut down earlier than anticipated. I thought it was going to heavier Friday night. We managed to hit double digits down south of you. I thought Chesterland did well but apparently I was mistaken. Mayfield and 306 almost always has more than South Russell. 

Yeah, for the most part it was a dry (relatively), disorganized event.  Higher sun angles during the daytime at this time of year often enhance the convection/subsidence process creating these dumb fleeting cells when one minute it's a whiteout and the next, the sun's out.

14 hours ago, DanTheMan said:

Hello Ohio Friends! This is my yearly, pre-visit post to your lovely forum. I am driving up from DC Thursday afternoon and leaving Monday. I am starving for flakes, what are my odds of seeing anything at all during that period? Flurries? Anything?? Thanks in advance

A clipper is progged to bring some snow to Cleveland (CLE) area starting very early Friday morning and continuing throughout the day into Friday evening.

I see Friday as having periods of rain, rain/snow mix and all wet snow later in the day.  Friday evening, wet snow could accumulate 1-2", especially north of the Ohio Turnpike.  Additional lake effect snow for the snowbelt (East Cuyahoga, Lake, Geauga and Ashtabula counties) could get anywhere from an inch in Cleveland's Eastern burbs (East Cuyahoga) to locally 3+ inches in Ashtabula county.

...Stay tuned...

On 2/28/2020 at 1:43 PM, OHweather said:

This has honestly been a boring event to watch from the sidelines for the most part as it just slowly adds up...hopefully the ratios and moisture do the work tonight with WNW/NW winds favoring more widespread snow shifting inland. 

As early as Wednesday afternoon, I didn't have a good feeling about this.  Then, looked like the cold air adv. was a little slow and dry air adv. was somewhat aggressive.  I smelled a bust.  How big, I didn't know then, but I had my doubts about anything over 5-10".  The LES cells on Thurs/Fri were disorganized/"pop-cornish" and fast moving which is common with late-season LES events.  My best snowfall came on Friday Night when I picked up around 3".  My storm total was 5-6".

4 hours ago, buckeye said:

Not so good this year.   I believe they had my region as being....let's see if I can recall the scientific term again....hmmmm...oh yea...   "Bone chilling cold"

That being said, I give them more credit than JB.  At least the Farmers Almanac can use the excuse that their methodology, (furriness of squirrels and stripes on a caterpillar), can be flawed at times.   JB actually uses meterological science and still ends up with a forecast opposite of reality.  

I just did my usual end of season subscription cancellation.   I really wish I could find a model site as nice and thorough as wxbell's....and as cheap.  I hate giving my money to them but their model site is awesome.    I sent an email and asked if I could get a subscription discount if I just had access to the model pages and not the meterologists blogs and videos....no response 

 

Have you looked at https://weathermodels.com/ ?  Their prices are reasonable for hobbyist and even commercial users.  There are just as many models and maybe even more than what WXBell offers.

I am cancelling my WXBell subscription and restarting the WX Models one.

I usually use the same thing.  Used to have more locations and storm totals.

Hi,

Back again after a long time away...

Anybody else notice the snowfall reports from CLE are scattered and out of date?

On 3/8/2019 at 9:40 AM, NEOH said:

What a great decade that was. CLE's average snowfall was 77". Time for regression I guess. How much snow have you had in Chesterland this season? 

Hey! Sorry I didn’t get back to you sooner. Taking a guess, id say Chesterland has had about 55” (give or take a few inches) this year. How about Russell?

6 hours ago, NEOH said:

I was kind of hoping CLE would break into the top ten least snowiest. Hard to say but CLE will probably finish in the 35" range I'd imagine. Here's a look at the past few years snowfall at CLE - 

2017/2018 - 53.1"

2016/2017 - 37.3"

2015/2016 - 32.8"

2014/2015  - 67.1" (almost normal)

2013/2014 - 86.1" (the last time CLE was above normal)

Obviously we've had much more snow out here in the snowbelt... but 5 straight seasons of below normal snowfall at CLE is a bad stretch. 

Could it be climatology balancing out the snowy 2000s?

Well, CLE broke the 30" mark for the season...

Well, CLE broke the 30" mark for the season...