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LakeEffectOH

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    2024-2025 La Nina

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    12 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

    Lake effect is nice but incredibly localized. A single squall line could literally be only 15-20 miles long in width meanwhile the people outside that boundary are dry and snowless. 

    Made it up to 19.5" here in Toronto thanks to these 1-3" clippers and lake effect. Still running below average though for the ytd. 

    Tell me about it...back in early December, Saybrook, OH had over 5 feet of snow via lake effect.  I live about 15 miles from there and there was not even a dusting.  Several days later, I finally had about 6 inches.

    • Like 2

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Nice!  NWS is forecasting off & on LES this week (2 events to be more accurate), though amounts will be light.  NWS keeps going back and forth with 1-2"/event to less than one inch between point forecasts.

    I just hate the term less than one inch or one half inch.  Ugh!

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    Hopefully we can see more LES this coming week.  As more ice forms on the lake, the chances of particularly heavy snows will decrease.

    While it’s certainly been cold, it hasn’t been that cold, plus we had a mini torch between Christmas and New Year’s.  Hopefully these two factors will buy us a little more time.

    I have had about 11” since it started snowing on New Year’s night.

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, NEOH said:

    Picked up 4.4" of snow already. It was just dumping earlier. Snow starting to pick back up... and the heavy snow over the lake looks to push south directly into the area circled by OHWeather. 

    4-5” is about what we’ve picked up here in Chesterland so far today.  Wind is picking up too! :sled:

    • Like 1

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    3 hours ago, OHweather said:

    Yes communicating that local variability to the public is always a challenge because people do tend to gravitate towards the highest number they see. Totals will definitely vary based on where bands setup, but I think most of the area will get a good amount of snow. There’s a decent amount of synoptic support through this evening and then a decently prolonged period of lake effect tonight and tomorrow. 

    We should be good, can see the band starting to push south over western Lake Erie as the wind shifts. The vort max NEOH pointed out will help force bands onshore and also will add a good amount of synoptic support. 

    Yes! Thanks! Snowing like crazy out now.  Just had a bout of pessimism, especially after being missed by the severe LES of early December 

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    4 hours ago, NEOH said:

    That will be moving inland once the shortwave passes and winds shift to the WNW. Winds are still SW'erly at this point. Check out the shortwave over central MI - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-MI-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data

    That should provide additional lift and increased snowfall. 

    Heavy snow here! I guess my inner :weenie: reminded me of how I missed epic LES snowfall by 10 so miles, not to mention several big ticket LES vents over the last few years.  

    Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion Part 2

    in Lakes/Ohio Valley

    Posted

    1 hour ago, OHweather said:

    Pretty good signal for periods of decent lake effect starting Wednesday or Wednesday night and lasting through Saturday with a west-northwest flow. It won't be a prodigious lake effect event, but the setup looks solid enough. 

    With the extended cold coming up, a good, hopefully deep, snowpack will develop over the next couple of weeks.

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