LakeEffectOH

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

C'mon, early April in Northeast Ohio is always so nice . Really hoping we can catch a break with clear skies... but I would put that in the possible but not probable category. 

Well, I've noticed the nicest day of the week is usually Monday, and the eclipse falls on a Monday, so...that may help us.  A little...

Anybody care to guess what the weather will be like on Eclipse Day (4/8)?

According to one Wx vendor, precipitation is expected to be above normal during the first half of April. 

4 hours ago, OHweather said:

A warm up after this cold snap isn't surprising to me, but I'll admit the long range ensembles are not giving me optimism regarding how quickly cold may come back after the warmup.

OHweather,

A little break from the current snow event...

What are your thoughts about the recent crash in snowfall totals measured at CLE?

Link:  https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

Here are some of my thoughts on possible contributing factors:

Recent tendency of the MJO to linger in the "Bad phases" (4-7);  The  changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool could be a factor in this.

Expansion and warming of the Indo-Pacific Ocean:

A strongly negative PDO over the past several years:

Link:  https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2021/09/01/pacific-decadal-oscillation

A greater tendency of the winter NAO to be positive, especially in the past 10 years, (circled in green): 

Link:  https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/nao/img/idl_nao_base1951-1980_ONDJFM_300dpi.png

Of course, there are many other factors, large and small, that are affecting our snow totals.  I only hope this isn't permanent because of climate change.

I would be interested in hearing your and anyone else's thoughts.

Well, we're under a Winter Storm Watch...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
230 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024

OHZ009>013-019>021-180330-
/O.NEW.KCLE.WS.A.0001.240119T0600Z-240120T0600Z/
Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-Huron-Medina-Summit-
Including the cities of Sandusky, Huron, Lorain, Elyria,
North Ridgeville, Avon Lake, Cleveland, Mentor, Willoughby,
Eastlake, Painesville, Willowick, Wickliffe, Chardon,
South Russell, Bainbridge, Chesterland, Middlefield, Burton,
Norwalk, Willard, Brunswick, Medina, Wadsworth, and Akron
230 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches possible.
* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Ohio.
* WHEN...From late Thursday night through late Friday night.
* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.

Interesting that Ashtabula county was left out.  Me thinks that Ashtabula has different criteria for winter storm messages.

3 hours ago, NEOH said:

Really couldn't draw it up any worse... low cutting northwest of us with limit wrap around snow... then a WSW'erly wind direction taking the lake effect to western new york. Not a great start to the year weather wise. 

 

Yeah, I spoke too soon.  Blame me, lol!

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Yeah, we've been bleeding "warmth" from the lake with very little to show for it. Lake temps are still around 40 or so. 

Since the lake is a "warm" 40 deg., It's possible we get a lot of LEH & LES snow, starting late Friday and lasting for several days due to the Arctic air settling in for at least the next week.  Most guidance has consistently shown potentially heavy snow totals for a few days now.  Fingers crossed!

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

Your area always does well so I don't doubt 8" fell. There was a consistent blob of heavy snow around and just north of 322 yesterday afternoon. The ground was soaked from the rain prior to the snow so definitely some compaction. 

Yes, in Solon, where I work, it was a rain/snow mix all day.  It wasn't til I practically crossed the Chester township line when everything became covered with 1-3" of snow.

32 minutes ago, OHweather said:

 It’s been a while since we’ve had a strong NW flow event that pushes the best snow into those southern secondary Snowbelt hills like this. 

I may not be correct here, but it seems like the last Huron connection we've had was in 2020.  Before then, we'd get at least one per year.  Bigger LES events seem to be going to WNY/Buffalo since about 2016 - the year the long term eastern snow drought began.

In Chesterland, I got at least 8".  However looking at the storm reports around me, by certified spotters, accums are between 3.5 - 5".  I checked pretty well for drifts before...estimating the depth.  Strange.  Maybe I better get a snow measuring device.  

Coming down much harder here in Solon.  Flakes have gotten much bigger too.

Measured about 4.5" on top of the car...

Yeah, this winter has gotta be better.  I've been looking at the long range models and there's little signs of a persistent SE ridge.  That's what hoses up our winters.

Hopefully, we'll see some snow tomorrow night.  NWS is calling for 2-4" in Chesterland.   2-4" would have been major for last winter...

OHweather, what are your thoughts about the upcoming winter?  Hopefully it will be better than last winter.

CustomWX,

Thanks a lot!  I'll check out the link.

Does anyone here have an answer?

Does anyone know a link where I can go to plot the latest Relative AAM chart such as the one attached?

Thanks! LEO

On 3/8/2023 at 10:13 AM, NEOH said:

Ha. Good point. This "winter" is in rare territory for snowfall futility. Here's the snowfall map for 2011/2012. Not even close to 60" here at this point. We'll see what happens from here on out... hopefully Friday trends in a good direction. 

 

 

 

 

 

Pitiful...just pitiful...

27 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Definitely a record setter. Probably around 30" or so inches around here. Couldn't imagine being a snow lover and living in an area that only averages 30-40" per season. Yeah, hopefully the coin flips next year. 

I sure hope so...this winter is absolutely disgusting.  Makes 2001-02, 2011-12 & 2019-20 look good.  

This winter has got to be a record setter for the Snowbelt as far as lack of snowfall goes.  Chardon, so far this season, has had just under 40".  Ugh!

I hope the saying "What a difference a year makes" applies to next winter.

Curious here...does anyone think last year's Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption contributed to pattern disruptions causing this winter's extreme warmth?  This eruption blasted a tremendous amount of water vapor into the stratosphere.

15 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Think areas that stayed all snow in north central and NE Ohio will overperform some. Seems like 4-8” so far where it’s stayed all snow and probably a good 5-9” more with snow lingering into early Friday now. Canton to Youngstown have seen no snow yet lol. Sharp cutoff down there though they should flip and get a few inches, with the current mix turning into a mess as it freezes tonight. Roads suck, wish me luck on my trek from Brooklyn Hts to Reminderville! 

Best of luck for your travels.  Be safe and warm.

1 minute ago, WHEATCENT said:

Orrville is in Wayne County looks kinda close to Orwell tho which is in Ashtabula 

Ok, that makes more sense...

55 minutes ago, OrrvilleWX said:

Switched to sleet and freezing rain here in the past few minutes.  

In Ashtabula County? That's close...

Wind's picked up here. Some little snownadoes now happening.

I don't see that weird hole on the 18z HRRR.