Volcanic Winter

This isn’t only a safe space for snow addicts, it’s a science discussion forum. The only posts that annoy me on AWX is stuff like this, IMHO has zero business here.

CNJ / middle third is a tough forecast I’m thinking, anywhere in the battleground / changeover stripe is gonna be a tough call. Depends further if we’re talking accumulating sleet or white rain, or even ice - not so sure that’s well resolved. Hoping the city gets blasted, but for here I’m really not sure. Mt Holly is still fairly aggressive even with their now reduced totals (7-13). Accuweather has near even odds between 8-12, 4-8, and even 2-4 which underscores what I’m talking about. Could bust high or bust low, tough one. Down to 10 with a -6 DP! I’d say the arctic air has arrived . Still falling.

Yeah, I think I might pay back some to NYC for 1/29/22 - and I’m cool with that.

Yeah, dude - I’m excited for it. Should be fun! In reality this just morphed into a super amped system that’s largely saved by the arctic dome above us, otherwise we’d all mostly be raining Sunday. It’s a cool storm, been fun to track. And I’ll take 8 and some sleet and call it a day. Not gonna complain about that after the past few winters.

36:3

24 here but dropping fast

Definitely; the thump will be fun regardless. Would need 5 hours of 2”/hr to hit 10, the low max of NWS forecast. Definitely seems aggressive to me, not judging - I certainly wouldn’t want to be the one making any calls for NJ / LI / NYC, just noting.

Haven’t had a chance to read the forums today but have stayed with the model runs; any thoughts on why the NWS maps are so aggressive? Well south of me in Toms River is still coded 10-15, and that just doesn’t seem likely based on the majority of guidance. Are they weighing the GFS more because it seemed to hold to a snowier outcome? Just being cautious? This is a tough one thing to pin down exact mix lines / lanes, any wiggle could shift totals - so logically surmising they’re just playing safe? Just seems awfully aggressive.

With respect, and this is a gripe I have overall with AWX - this isn’t a safe space for snow positivity. It’s supposed to be a science discussion forum, debate typically includes various view points and opinions. People also have different preferences in general, everyone isn’t going to neatly line up in a way that reinforces your personal optimism. And it’s fine if people express frustration, I don’t claim agency over the feelings or thoughts of others and I’d expect that same latitude in return.

Same down here actually. I’m included in the 12-17, only down all the way by AC does it drop to 8-15. Very bullish, wondering if it’s just because it’s a watch - I’d expect the warnings to be more finely tuned. I think 6-8 with a chance at 10 in a best case scenario would be more realistic for my location. Not overly pressed tbh, beast of a storm and I’m ready to roll the dice no matter what happens.

I had 16+, recently checked out the maps for 1/29/22 and I was definitely just shy of the local max which you caught more of. I had 18 in 1/4/18 too, local max in Ocean was like 22 for that one. I like where we're at, the sleet threat is real but we've been the QPF max in NJ for a bit now. It's going to be a dice roll but we'll either jackpot or still do very well and sleet at the end, rain is possible but for now I'll wait to see how the north shift evolves. I still think CNJ (as in middle third of the state, not cultural CNJ) is going to do extremely well. Hopefully the entire metro gets a major storm.

I’m at around 10+ down here inland Toms River, checks out. Nice map!

Bottomed out at 3F down here, not bad! Had to break out my heavier down jacket for the first time in a while. This is the lowest recorded temp since I’ve installed my Tempest in March 2022. Today should feel positively balmy warming up to the mid - upper 30’s.

It’s impressive to me in context of the unrelenting warmth of many of the 2020s winters and with respect to the fact it was like 8pm when I made the comment. Overnight low, no - I’ve already been below that a couple times during good radiative cooling overnights . At 8pm? To me that’s “real cold” for the region ‘beneath’ upstate NY / Sussex. No, not historic - just more significant than other ‘cold’ we’ve had. To clarify. Context always matters and sometimes we don’t add enough of it in these modern times, myself included. Down to 7 now. And yeah, I think being at 10 at 8pm is more impressive than 7 by midnight. At least here at the ass end near the pines. Edit: 5F at 3:30a. Exceeded my minimum from Dec, now coldest of the season Now 4F

10F atm, truly impressive cold.

What’s left on the driveway is a crunchy immovable glacier, looks and feels like real winter again. 18F overnight low. 2 inches measured on a truck bed, bit less on blacktop / walkway. Not bad at all, looking ahead to what seems to be real cold coming our way and hopefully storm chances that aren’t squashed to Georgia.

2 inches all said and done here. Came down pretty fast once it finally started. About 11 on the season.

Finally snowing and sticking Toms River / Manchester border. Moderate intensity. 32.7 / 32

Mt Holly’s bearishness down here was warranted I think, lot of the models ultimately showed little to nothing in kuchera after the stormed move back NW a bit the past couple days. Air is stale. Still crazy to be at 32 and change and not even be mixing, still rain here. But that tells the story; looking ahead… —— Enjoy the snow guys! Nice snowy weekend for everyone!

Rain at 32.7/32 down here. Not mix, pure rain. edit: now 32.4 / 31.9 Have to say I think this is the coldest surface temp / dew I’ve seen be plain rain that I can recall. Should flip in a bit and maybe snag an inch, we’ll see.

@LibertyBell You good buddy? Miss ya this winter. You always had some interesting thoughts and questions, hope you’re well!

I was leaving work in Union the day it hit and it was one of my sketchiest Parkway rides in 15 years. Was a ghost town, which is rare even in snow events. Was in a 2010 F150 and probably averaged 25-30mph the whole way, I remember visibility at times was dreadful. We got about 18 inches down my ways, and some spots near me according to snow maps maxed around 20-21. Was pretty close to a proper regional HECS, just needed some tweaks. Feel similarly about 1/29/22, few shifts away from a HECS - that thing was a monster.

Starting off January with an average temp of 24.6 degrees, low max of 15 and high 36. I know it’s only a few days but interesting nonetheless. Cold start.

I’m a vampire, don’t judge!

Sure it's not COVID? I had it last year in December, came down with it while in Iceland for our first winter trip. Absolutely sucked and I did everything in my power not to let it ruin our trip, which was difficult when it's built around hiking and outdoor activity. But the painful breathing (like vague sense of soreness when you take a deep breath) has been a hallmark symptom of having COVID pretty good. I suppose ultimately it doesn't really matter much anymore, but yeah. Feel better!