CT Valley Dryslot

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I love the enthusiasm... but that BOX AFD seems completely divorced from the reality of every piece of guidance today.

I mean, maybe at this point they're just settling on one forecast and waiting until tomorrow during the event to make changes.

You can't make changes every model cycle. It will confuse the public.

I feel like with Feb 2013 we were having similar issues sorting out meso features. 

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just so we can track how it’s doing 

Is that Koochie?

6 minutes ago, snjókoma said:

3K NAM cut down QPF from 12z to 18z

Such a bizzare run.

Now I'm actually curious to see if we actually get the double low IRL.

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Really bizarre to see the surface low waaaaay out of the benchmark and the 700mb low tucked so close to the coast.

Not really sure what to make of it.

Is the HP over Quebec causing blocking?

It almost seems like its occluding and then shunted east by confluence.

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

I feel like we lost sight of the fact it's the day of the storm. But hard not to, when there is an all time rugpull like that. All jokes aside here. I busted Phins balls and he absolutely called it. He can stay. 

 

I've seen it all so last minute guidance swings don't phase me.

Convective precip is starting to enter NEXRAD territory

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I'll wait until this finishes and models get the data

They did another RECON flight?

Weenies will cling to the RAP like its a waifu body pillow.

Final guess:

12-18 along and east of I-91

**18-24 possible HFD-IJD-ORH**

6-12 from Route 7 to I-91

3-6 Taconic Parkway to Route 7

Lots of clenched buttholes here today.

Everyone living and dying by the NAM lol.

My mind is in nowcast mode.

The low is forming down south. I don't really feel compelled to hype about what the models show and more curious to see what comes our way.

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Already reports of steady light snow in Eastern PA.

You guys in CT should keep an eye on this.

That's the appetizer.

I positively DNGAF what the GFS spits out tonight.

We're getting close to March 93 territory with the depth of the sfc low.

960 is the magic number. NAM got it down to 961.

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I'd hate to live in Berkshire County right now.

Snowfall range is literally 3-18".

UL jet structure looks a bit further north, too.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We need more model runs.

Now comes the NAM

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Someone tweet at Mike Trout to make an account here and post here.

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IPA’s for everyone here. On me!

At church, can't drink.

7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I see 964mb  Totals qpf

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Snow totals are going to be extremely hard to measure with this storm.  People are going to be posting all kinds of wild numbers.  I was 13 years old in 1969.  I think that was what was called the 100 hour storm.  Us kids were able to walk up to the roof of our school building while other areas had bare grass. (Wayland)  Drifting was huge.

I've often heard that the measurements for 96 were woefully inaccurate.