CoolMikeWx

Thats a tughill to tombo special, has to be wrong 

Quite a few complete misses for Buffalo on GEFS, definitely went further SE then 12z.

 

Wouldn't mind maybe another 25-50 east but that latest run is pretty good. Lotta slotting in there no?

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1 minute ago, vortmax said:

Euro 12Z 84hr east by 150 miles, but 3mb deeper.

Weatherbell stopped loading for me probably because too much F5 but 18z Sunday was a tad east on the coastline.

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

WOW. HUGE difference and looking like many other models now. Took them long enough! Poor Mid Atlantic crew...  

Poor nothing for those Mid-Atlantic folks, they just got a nice storm a week ago and we all missed out.

Just now, Syrmax said:

That would be ideal for this forum.  Minimal if any slotting and no mix/rain other than very lower HV...

Agreed, even I would see decent numbers from that here in Middletown.

Not sure why but this exact same map from WB has northern NJ and NYC in the snow also...vs Trop




 

6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

We'll see if the GFS follows but the icon is still suspect to me, not that it matters, it will change in 6 hours lol

Honestly wouldn't complain with that nice band from ROC to Lowville, crushing Tug Hill, would make for some nice snowmobiling Monday.

ICON feels really fast.

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's depressing

 

You guys down there deserve a good storm. My poor friends in New Brunswick / South River NJ area always get screwed either too far south or north.

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

The heavy snow stays JUST to the NW of Philly, NYC and Boston. Ouch. 
Classic look though. I’m with Buf- this would be 1-2’ for everyone between Buffalo and Albany. 

That 13.1 is right on the top of my head while 65 miles south NYC might get 3 inches ooooooof. My cousin who went to met school and got me into it lives in Staten Island.. sure he would be upset if this was the solution.

Lets keep these rolling.

3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Gfs will be super amped with a low west of apps up to Jamestown with mix dryslot for western ny while coastal takes over and crushes Binghamton to Albany. 

I love you guys but this is exactly what I hope happens.

Everyone wins, the hill, ADK, and even my home the HV.


Cheers.. waiting for the GFS to finish running

10 minutes ago, ayuud11 said:

So what’s the best track for the thruway corridor? Apps runner??

For our perspective as I am in the Hudson Valley ( NYC to Albany Thruway probably to Utica and north of there) up the coast as close as possible but not on land.

I would guess for you western guys up the apps would be best?

Being the Eastern NY / downstate guy, I would be happy either way this goes as long as it isn't a complete miss.

A lot of the runs bring it way west which would mean a snow to rain like @sfericwas talking about. If its hugging the cost, we get dumped on but our friends out west get nearly nothing. Hopefully it comes out in the middle. Since I'll be upstate on the hill for this, hopefully it's enough for a good amount of fresh powder Monday. We deal with that damn rain/snow line like how you upstate guys deal with missing out on coastal stuff a lot so I feel everyone pain.

6 days out but I am a green positive weenie

 

18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Me and @vortmaxare the lowest totals on the forum. I'm at 23.6" so far. About 50% of my normal to date. Only good event was that sneaky LES event back in December. If this one misses East I never want to hear @TugHillMattcomplain again. 

To be fair I am guaranteed lowest totals on the forum. But I am also not up there with you guys and in the HV so

6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I was thinking the same thing. The GFS has been the best this season at sniffing out systems and their location.

We seem to have an uncanny ability to get slammed on the day we always plan to come home on every year from a snowmobile trip.. one trip usually this time or early February and we have to stay another day. I swear it's happened the last three years. Not complaining but this would be nutso.


P.S. Judah Cohen just also posted about this with being cautiously optimistic...

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1480908782242775055?s=20

Considering how "accurate" the GFS has been in this time frame as of recent.. if this doesn't partially confirm in some form.. it'll be upsetting lol.

My wife was complaining it was 9 degrees out this morning when she left with my son.

Only if she was up at the hill this weekend when it's going to be -10.

Slight dusting over night in HV which was odd. This weekend is starting to show some good potential for something, I am hoping it comes earlier than Monday though.

If that thing hugs the coast like the GFS is showing ....

I won't make it home Monday and guess I will be riding instead for a second day

4 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Actually come close as it moves up coast.

Wow that 00z GFS model actually slams us down here for 10-12.. what the heck.

 

I feel like both of these adjusted a bit north? The hill didn't see that much expected accum in previous runs?

Good for me, bad for you I supposed will try to send some your way

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I spend a lot of time on Brantingham Lake and there is definitely no Natural Gas there. Time Warner does offer high speed internet. Where did he buy? On the lake? There’s been very few properties available. 

Almost directly on the lake, Partridgeville road actually maybe 2 minutes from the Pine Tree.

Probably has electric then if that's the case.. I'd have to find the listing and check.

He was gunning for a spot right in Brantingham since last summer and couldn't find anything. Someone renovated a house entirely and snagged it.

1 minute ago, sferic said:

Random question, but do areas like Redfield and the other off the path snow king  towns get Spectrum, Fios or Natural Gas through National Grid?

My best friend is buying a house in Brantingham which would fall here. He said they get full ISP coverage which he was surprised (Not sure who it is) and also gas i believe.

Lord almighty look at it go...visibility down to maybe a few hundred feet.



https://www.northernchateau.com/w/webcam48.html


For map reference



 

26 minutes ago, Geez150 said:

From one snowmobiler to another welcome! Even though sometimes I don't understand the different weather lingo I personally like using this chat forum for guidance on an shot at upcoming snow. Seems the many knowledgeable guys on here have a great feel for winter weather and more often then not have it called for the good or the bad before the paid guys do.

Absolutely agree and thanks!


I joke with my group that they keep me around because I'm the weather geek and know ahead of time whether the hill and surrounding areas are good and ready to ride.

Truth is, I am super lucky to have you guys and my cousin for getting me into MET as a hobbyist at all.


Fingers crossed this LES keeps playing out like it has been, really fun to watch.



 

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I think I'm just ready for a "La Nada" winter...because these stupid La Ninas (and El Ninos) aren't producing...

I agree 100%.

Not sure if you guys follow Judah at all but I love his Twitter updates and blog posts, i've learned a lot from him. Of course nothing is guaranteed for NY unfortunately.