TheClimateChanger

If we look at Chicago, there's a lot of data here from non-comparative stations (downtown, lakeshore exposure). But if we limit our inquiry to airport data (MDW 1942-Jan. 16, 1980; ORD Jan. 17, 1980-present), we see a much different picture. The mean mimima of 28.3F is 2.2F warmer than any year observed at one of the airport observation sites. Incredibly, the 25.2F mean minima at GRB would have been the 5th warmest ever observed at a Chicago area airport prior to this year. This also suggests to me there are likely locations near the lakeshore downtown where the mean minima from a properly sited station may be 32F or higher this winter. There's certainly evidence to show that a lakeshore siting can have a big impact. If we look at Cleveland, we find a mean minima of 31.3F for the winter to date. Yet Burke Lakefront Airport (BKL) on the lakeshore, and close to downtown Cleveland, registers an absolutely astounding 34.3F.

Incredible winter in Milwaukee for palm tree growing enthusiasts, where the average minimum to date is closer to the freezing point (2.6F cooler) than it is to the second warmest (2.9F warmer), and an astounding 2.5F warmer than the normal winter mean temperature. Also, of note, the 25.2F average minima at Green Bay would tie the 3rd highest ever observed in Milwaukee and the highest ever observed at MKE Airport [prior to this year], more than 100 miles to the south in a much larger urban environment.

Even more incredible if looking at overnight minima. Green Bay currently 3.8F ahead of second place, and 5.4F ahead of any year at the airport observation site. Minneapolis currently 3.3F ahead of second place, and 4.6F ahead of any year at the airport observation site. The average minimum temperature of 25.2F at Green Bay is 3.9F warmer than the normal winter mean temperature (21.3F).

What an incredible start to the month of February for Detroit, although certainly not limited to that location but rather demonstrative of the entire region. Warmest mean high temperatures for the first 12 days of the month by nearly 1F. One of only three years with no measurable precipitation for the first 12 days of the month, and one of only two years with no snow at all. The other two years with no measurable precipitation (1991 & 1877) were also among the warmest starts to the month, albeit several degrees Fahrenheit cooler. Looks like El Nino on steroids for you guys. Average high temperature for February 1 to February 12: Total Precipitation: Total Snowfall:

Just an a relentless south, east, and weaker trend for 24+ hours. Unreal.

The Mark Model still has the city at 3-6 inches.

I can believe it. 2020s DC is basically a warmer, less snowy version of late 20th century Charlotte. CLT (1961-1990) - December, January, February Temps & October - May Snowfall

Even that doesn't always work out.

Seem worse than ever. Every storm is a complete guessing game until 24 hours.

Well, 1877-78 was always considered to be the warmest of record by far, including the pioneer era records at Fort Snelling dating back to 1820. So when there's more than 200 years of data, and it's beating the record by nearly 3F, I think 1 in 1000 is a reasonable estimate for a recurrence interval, no?

All this wintertime warmth at Dayton, and watch, you are probably going to be 89'd all summer long.

Would be funny if Harrisburg picked up a foot and had more snow than Erie on the season midway through February.

Brutal. At least the 3K still gives us a couple of inches.

Hmm, I'm taking the under here.

Well, I always get pushback when I use mean temperatures and the response is always high temperatures are more important. Applying that logic fairly, it was easily the warmest first 10 days of February:

Yes, this is what I was getting at it. Dayton only has 5 periods with two day totals of a foot or more dating back to the 19th century (ignoring the double counting of the 1978 blizzard).

18z GEFS is at a mean of 6.3” for the city, albeit assuming 10-1 ratio (which is probably too high).

This is true. When I noted we haven’t had a 12” calendar day since 1994, I was playing around on xMacis with other locations, and Dayton has only ever had one day with 12” or more (and only barely) in 1978. I think warning criteria might be 4” there, but they are even worse for big storm climatology. Same deal with Columbus where I think warning criteria is the same as Pittsburgh.

Looks like we’ve lost the HRRR. Too far south and east for most of us to get more than a couple of inches, using actual model ratios.

Is thundersnow possible with this system?

Impressive, and this 8.3” is with actual modeled ratios. This looks like it could be a big one.

Wouldn’t worry too much about the global models at this time frame. Lower resolution makes it harder to model this type of a dynamic system with marginal thermals.

Looks pretty solid to me, especially with 10:1 ratios.