TheClimateChanger

Some thunder possible tomorrow evening, not expected to be severe with MUCAPE below 500 J/kg. Although I do wonder if some small hail might be possible with any stronger cells, especially in the warm sector. ...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic... A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH, into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500 J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.

I don't know. Tough to eyeball, especially with the different color schemes and the 2025 data not necessarily being maxT. Looks like California was several degrees warmer this year, so that would add to the population weighting, but the Ohio Valley and parts of the midwest were cooler. Certainly closer than an aerially-weighted comparison.

I don't pay for Weatherbell or any of those premium sites, so I don't have the current PRISM estimates. They are typically off quite a bit, one way or the other, from NCEI's official numbers anyways.

I'm pretty sure Christmas 2025 easily eclipsed 2021 on an aerial-weighting, buoyed by much higher anomalies across the intermountain west. While sparsely populated, that's a large landmass and it was considerably warmer this year.

Actually, I'll retract that. I don't think the raw data was gridded, so that's not necessarily correct. A top 5 warmest December should be a lock, with the possibility of a record.

Looking VERY likely that this will go into the books as the warmest December on record for the CONUS, may even blow past 2023 by a large margin.

Clearly, the urban heat island effect at work in a town of 31,000 spawled across 3,250 square miles.

To be honest, not seeing much evidence of increasing cold extremes in the Juneau data.

Odd, why were -10s and -20s relatively common from the 1940s to 1970s in Juneau? But only twice since (1995 & 2025)? Very weird. Regardless, a quick search shows downtown Juneau was as low as -17F in 1998, so I don't know why the airport was so much warmer. By contrast, Salt Lake City has been above its prior monthly record high minimum temperature (since 1874!) for two consecutive days, and likely a third unless it drops to 52 or lower by midnight. So I don't think those two events are actually comparable from a historical climate standpoint.

Whoa. What is going on in Pennsylvania and New York on Friday?

For all the bashing of the models, this looks like an incredibly accurate forecast from the Euro AI for the current period.