TheClimateChanger

Good news on the Lake Erie ice front. Recent warmth has brought total ice coverage down to less than 25% of normal to date (4% coverage versus mean of 13% for the date). All of the lakes are running a little behind normal, as of yesterday's analysis.

Snow squall conditions possible tomorrow night, per NWS. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 104 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 OHZ039>041-049-050-059-069-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073-075-077- WVZ001>004-012-021-509-310200- /O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0028.251231T1800Z-260101T1500Z/ Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Harrison-Jefferson OH-Belmont- Monroe-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene- Westmoreland-Fayette-Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Including the cities of Kittanning, Washington, Uniontown, Morgantown, New Philadelphia, New Castle, Malvern, Woodsfield, Weirton, Monaca, Canonsburg, Indiana, Salem, Monessen, Moundsville, Lower Burrell, Ellwood City, Waynesburg, Latrobe, New Martinsville, Beaver Falls, Aliquippa, Ford City, Murrysville, Wellsburg, Ambridge, Pittsburgh Metro Area, New Kensington, Butler, Follansbee, Martins Ferry, St. Clairsville, Cadiz, East Liverpool, Steubenville, Fairmont, Greensburg, Columbiana, Carrollton, Wheeling, and Dover 104 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5 inches. Snow squall conditions will be possible during the evening and overnight. * WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, southwest and western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of West Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Please report snow or ice accumulations by calling 412-262-1988, posting to the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page, or using X @NWSPittsburgh. && $$ 88

Only about an inch here this morning, but it's snowing very heavily now and rapidly accumulating. Wonder if we'll get a snow squall warning?

Thanks for the update, Don. As one might expect, a MASSIVE outbreak of "weathergamis" occurred yesterday (and undoubtedly today as well). I've been following this account for a while and this is, by far, the most I've seen.

Severe weather, including tornados, look possible as well.

Back on now, although mostly from PIT north now.

Like in Pittsburgh, Monday afternoon may be in the upper 20s but the high is likely to be near 60 degrees!

The progged temps aren’t factoring in the incredibly warm midnight highs that are likely in this regime, so probably way too low.

Februarys were a blowtorch, however. Very curious. Will be interesting to see if a similar theme plays out in 2026.

Wow, this is interesting how cold the ensuing Januarys were following the warmest Decembers. Some are forecasting a cold January this year as well.

Either way, a VERY respectable anomaly. From a historical standpoint, this could wind up warmer than any December prior to 2015 if PRISM is close. Not sure what's going on with recent Decembers. 3 of the past 4 were even warmer. So from a historical standpoint, EXTREMELY impressive, but from the vantage point of recent years, pretty ho-hum national anomaly. It doesn't appear to be data error, because the USCRN network suggests recent Decembers were even warmer than given by the nClimDiv numbers.

I bit the bullet and picked up a subscription for the PRISM estimates. It's estimating 2.76F through Christmas day, but we've been adding 0.5F per day lately. Extrapolating through yesterday, PRISM would probably have us up to ~+3.2F for the month to date.

Looks like January 29, 2022.

Not too shabby. I think this might wind up warmer than any December prior to 2015.

Updated PRISM here (through Christmas day). We've been tacking on 0.5F+/day during this Torchmas pattern. Probably around ~+3.2F once updated through yesterday.