TheClimateChanger

Bringing the climate perspectives map forward to Friday (with the forecast values), here's where we could be on the summer to date on July 18 as far as rankings are concerned. Guidance is coalescing on some big heat risks as we move later into the month, so there should be plenty of opportunities to improve upon these rankings.

Guidance certainly seems to be coalescing on some more heat risks as we move later into July. One neat feature of the Climate Perspectives map is that it allows for to forecast ahead up to 5 days. Now, I think the forecast is pretty conservative, but regardless, looking ahead to Friday, here's what it could look like for the season to date. Burlington - you could have your hottest summer to date. Concord, 2nd hottest. Hartford, 4th hottest. Blue Hill (Milton) should continue to see 3rd hottest conditions. Islip, NY, Elkins, WV, Beckley, WV, Raleigh-Durham, NC - you could all be in the midst of a record-breaking summer. Top 5s and 10s all over the place, even with some very sucky station threads out in the mix. Looks even better when its focused on minimum temperature, then 1s start popping up all over the place. Even BOS jumps to 3rd place when you look at minima. I guess those local sea breezes aren't doing as much work at night.

Thankfully, the storm held off just long enough for yesterday's 72F record high minimum to hold.

Anecdotally, the atmosphere seems thicker and more "vaporous" than it did decades ago. More Venusian might be a good way to describe it. In my hometown, the normal July minima used to be in the 50s, but now reaching the 50s there is like a big achievement in the month of July. Normal lows from decades ago are now seen as a nice break from the heat. Very weird to see in the absence of any UHI increases. All very bizarre.

73F at Williamsport, PA, and 72F at Scranton, PA, also matched record high minima.

Clouds and showers should keep high temperatures at bay today. Overall, still a pretty good look for summer lovers:

Very impressive overnight heat retention today in western New York. We will have to see if these temperatures hold, but the low of 75F would tie the record high minimum in Buffalo (1936) and the low of 73F would tie the record high minimum in Rochester (1987). At Watertown, the morning low was just 78F, 4F above the record high (74F, in 2016) and just 1F shy of the all-time record high minimum of 79F set on July 21, 2011 (records dating to 1949). The morning low of 76F at Syracuse would easily surpass the daily record high minimum of 73F, set in 1972. Developing convection could wreak havoc on these, although with dewpoints so high they might hold regardless.

One note on the IEM estimates, they tend to be off from the actual NCEI values. Comparing 1936 summer as a whole, they have it warmer than NCEI in many places (except the southwest, which they show as decidedly colder). I think the estimates for recent years are generally the opposite bias (i.e., a bit cooler). Either way, should come in as a very warm summer for the CONUS. Not sure we poach 2021 or 1936 though.

For comparison purposes, here are 1936 & 2021 to date. These are the two hottest summers on record for the CONUS. 1936 2021

Wow? Why would @ChescoWxweenie this post? These are raw, unadjusted data collected from a number of locations with PORs of 100-150+ years, and a sizeable number of them are from rural locations - including Elkins, West Virginia, which has seen its hottest start to summer on record [and by a sizeable margin, at that]. I would have thought this data would be right up his alley, since he doesn't care for any adjustments.

Just a theory, but I suspect this more closely aligns with the conditions for most of SNE.

I guess, but even Blue Hill Observatory in eastern Massachusetts (high quality, long POR) has this as 3rd hottest start to summer behind only 2024 & 1999.

The map I posted previously was exclusively ThreadEx sites with PORs 100-150+ years. I just used Mount Washington as an illustrative example. CON has a longer POR than BOS and is top 5.