TheClimateChanger

False spring out there today.

Cut it out... I literally showed the last entry was 2024 until I refreshed the page.

Ok, I refreshed and it popped in there. I believe it was just added. Thanks.

Not sure. On that direct link, it shows up. But when I use the website to pull it up, it only shows through 2024 (see screenshot below).

It's not on your website. Here are the updated trends for 2007-2025: Avondale: 10.0F/century PHL: 10.0F/century East Nantmeal: 8.16F/century Chester County (ChescoWx): 8.0F/century Chester County (NCEI): 5.3F/century

Oh, sorry. I didn't know. I don't really pay much attention to him, but he had been posting a lot so I thought I'd take a look at his data for recent decades. Just thought it was interesting his data shows more recent warming than NOAA.

Decided to take a deep dive in this Chester County stuff for the period 2007-2024. @ChescoWxtook a look at his station compared to the CRN station in Avondale last summer. But I wanted to take a deeper dive. Chescowx.com hadn't updated all of the numbers for 2025, so I limited the analysis to 2007-2024. Here's what I found: Interesting how much lower the slope of the trendline appears in the official values for Chester County (~7.5F/century) over that timeframe, relative to that of the individual stations. The CRN site shows a warming of about ~12.6F/century. PHL airport warms at ~12.1F/century. Paul's backyard reflects a warming of ~11.1F/century. His composite average for the county was at ~10.4F/century. But the NCEI official numbers check in much lower for recent warming. Will have to see whether this continues... if this continues for even another half decade or so, I would expect Paul's composite averaging to start producing higher temperature means than NCEI. Recent years, the two estimates have been nearly the same (within ~.1F or so), whereas in the late 2000s, NCEI's value was often about 0.5F higher than Paul's.

Lol, this is a weird forecast for a severe thunderstorm warning.

Really impressive stuff here. Some notable high temperature rankings from the Midwest. Rockford, IL: 41.8F (3rd) Dubuque, IA: 41.4F (4th) Moline, IL: 46.5F (4th) Rochester, MN: 37.5F (4th) Cedar Rapids, IA: 45.5F (2nd) Des Moines, IA: 50.0F (2nd) Sioux City, IA: 53.9F (1st) Omaha, NE: 55.8F (1st) Minneapolis, MN: 37.8F (6th) Saint Cloud, MN: 35.1F (7th) Green Bay, WI: 34.1F (9th) Even warmer over the Plains! Giving the great torch of February 2017 a run for its money on the national means.

@donsutherland1 @bluewave

These old snowfall records are so ridiculously lowballed. Snow depth increased by 34" from the 4th to the 14th on just 34.2" of "official" snow. So there was literally no melting, sublimation or compaction over that entire time. What a joke.

Wow, that first one is crazy. I had to look it up to verify. What struck me is how ridiculously lowballed these snowfall totals must have been. From the 4th through the 14th, snow depth climbed 34 inches on only 34.2" of "official" snow. No way that's possible. There had to be some combination of melting, compaction and sublimation.

Certainly going to be difficult to see any sustained cold with that AO index.

For further context, regarding high temps. NCEI (nClimDiv) had us at +2.96°F for December & January, while PRISM has February at an unbelievable +6.12°F for the first half of the month. The record for DJF is +3.16°F, also from 2023-2024. So this is nearly guaranteed to be broken as well, unless the current forecast for the second half of the month is WAY off.

Thanks for the update, Don. Going to be a close call as to whether we break the record for warmest winter in the CONUS, set just 2 years ago (2023-2024). Right now, I'm projecting this to finish as the second warmest on record, but it's not out of the question that we set a new record. December-January averaged +2.25°F relative to 1991-2020 on NCEI's nClimDiv, and +2.71°F relative to 1991-2020 in the U.S. Climate Reference Network (all rural, non-adjusted) dataset. The record is +3.42°F in nClimDiv and +3.52° in U.S. CRN, from 2023-2024 (in each case). Second place is +2.73°F set in 2015-2016 for nClimDiv. PRISM's analysis has us at +4.70°F for February for the first half of February. Obviously, this is an *unofficial* value. But that would place us at approx. +3.07°F if it held up through the end of the month (with averaging by month) or about +3.01°F (with averaging by day) in the official nClimDiv records. It would also place us around +3.37°F in USCRN (averaged by month) or 3.33°F (averaged by day). Although I would expect the (IMO, more accurate) USCRN anomaly to come in higher than PRISM's estimate. What's intriguing to me is it looks like there is room to run even higher in the second half of February with these projections. A final anomaly around +6°F (or a bit higher) would be sufficient to set a new record even in the official nClimDiv dataset. But like I said, right now, I'm conservatively projecting this to finish as second warmest on record. I do think we will set a new record for warmest AVERAGE MAX TEMP, however... unusually large diurnal ranges (i.e., somewhat cooler lows) are holding the means back a bit. In terms of satellite TLT temperatures, this winter is pretty much guaranteed to be the warmest in the US48 band in the UAH analysis (with complete records back to the winter of 1978-1979). December & January were the warmest on record by a HUGE margin, so that one is pretty much already in the bag with another warm month.