TheClimateChanger

Yeah, I've always thought it was a red herring. The Lake Erie at Buffalo average annual temperature is rising at pretty much the exact same rate as the air temperature at Buffalo. So unless UHI is pouring into Lake Erie, it would seem the temperature represents a real trend. Lake is slightly warmer because it doesn't drop below 32F in the winter due to ice.

We've had that for 21, going on 22, years - it's called the United States Climate Reference Network and it shows more, not less, warming than the official numbers over the period of overlap.

Suspect he's jumping the gun a bit. This is what the GFS shows for the morning of the 16th:

Source: drroyspencer.com

Spring is coming!

I think most people assume the normals are simply smoothed averages, but they actually use statistical techniques like pairwise homogenization that are supposed to correct for biases, but unfortunately can introduce biases if bad data is being incorporated at the time the normals are being calculated.

Sorry a little old, I just wanted to point out that this is only related to the computation of the "normals" from the two sites. Toledo actually averaged 0.3°F cooler than Fort Wayne for the 1991-2020 timeframe. The normals in Toledo add about 1.5°F or so to this actual mean. Not sure if NOAA/NWS was piloting some sort of new calculation of normals that would incorporate a warming climate or what the case may be. My alternative guess would be Toledo was running a little hot beginning around July 2019 and continuing through the end of 2020 - looks like a sensor error, as it suddenly started running about 1.5F warmer than Fort Wayne. That's no longer the case, but whatever algorithm they use to create the normals may have interpreted that as a real step change up and added into the calculated normals. Which is annoying now that the temperature sensor is long since running normal again, as it has led to more negative anomalies than most surrounding sites [as in the examples you post above]. Obviously, not related to rural siting as Toledo Express is in a very rural location well outside the city.

Some more information on that one...