jwilson

I believe there's a very high correlation between a deep -AO spike relax and a significant nor'easter. Something like 90%? I can't remember off the top of my head, but we just peaked at about -5 on the Arctic Oscillation and will immediately shoot back in the other direction. That sort of quick-change is volatile. It lends credence to the idea of a major storm occurring soon, but the details are TBD. The one big problem is this not being a Nino, we don't have the typical Miller A southern juice. We can "fake" that in a way with a big phased element, but I think the overall setup is more tenuous than if this were a typical warm-ENSO pattern with overrunning. January 1996 was one of those extreme outliers, and we haven't seen that again in the 30 years since, so you know how rare it is. If you get that Gulf of Alaska low to spike that west coast ridge more, or sag the TPV lobe quicker, oriented more north-south, you could trigger an earlier phase that pulls in a more western component to the storm or start developing a wider precip shield. I think that's how Pittsburgh wins from this, but it is more difficult in this overarching pattern, and even 1996 - as the most extreme case - is barely a Top-10 snow for PIT. Granted, there's no history of anything until it happens.

The outlier 0Z Canadian was surprisingly close to an all-snow event for Pittsburgh. Took the surface low on a line from about Charleston to Martinsburg. GFS cuts straight up to Weirton. Euro brings it to Allegheny County. Latter two drive into the finger lakes. I think it remains quite a long shot to see a moderate snowfall from the weekend event. Front-end snow is uncertain, but I think the ceiling for that is probably 2" tops, and that's from the most aggressive GFS. The Euro is about 1" total. That's largely where my expectations lie. The reason for the difference in the CMC vs. Euro/GFS camp is the lag in the TPV on the latter two. The former moves the TPV eastward much quicker, placing it almost due north of the system. That means the system has more trouble cutting west. We are going to need that confluence to speed up, because the southeast ridge is pumping the heights ahead of the system and setting the boundary basically right over us or even to our north. If we don't get that timing right, it's a full-on rain storm. Maybe we can find a way to get lucky, but there's not much support for it in the modeling as of now.

I think the suppressed repeat is the most likely outcome for that storm as the blocking is peaking. Hopefully not for obvious reasons, but it would seem the winter of southern MD / north central VA continues for now.

Just for fun, this showed up on the long-term GFS Ensembles: Anyone have a guess as to what that looks like? I'll give you a "hint" -

Everything has been flowing either north or south of Pennsylvania this winter, for the most part. Yet to have a flush hit across the state, and it looks like that trend continues. Unfortunate luck. Things cut to Chicago behind a wave of confluence or get stuck underneath one and are suppressed.

That might be the best Eagles team ever assembled. KC had no chance. Going to have some tough losses in personnel, I think, and losing the OC again, but this team is capable of winning more if they really want it.

Phillies parade was fun back in '08. Getting there on SEPTA was not. Got extremely lucky an empty train rolled up to Willow Grove as we pulled in to park. I missed the Eagles' parade because of bad timing with work, but if they win again I'll be tempted to make the trip. I think they should win but Chiefs' voodoo is something else. Hopefully it's not close enough for ref influence.

It's usually a red flag when your snow exists only at the backend of OP model runs. Not that it can't happen, but it's stuff you typically bet against. Pattern does look more favorable long-term, however. It's a Nina so the risk is we run dry without a strong STJ presence. Next 10 days look messy, first. Pretty reliant we get lucky on timing.

I think it still looks promising on the ensembles. -AO and -NAO with a potential 50/50 locked in and the cold underneath. Nice building western ridge on the EPS, less so on GEFS. The setup hasn't changed much, I don't think. Clearly OP model runs aren't trustworthy even to mid-range lead times. Next week is volatile. Hopefully we don't go dry again in the good base, but I guess that's the risk in a Nina.

Canadian has a more interesting evolution out here for next week. The GFS isn't much, but the GFS has been bad this winter so I've generally ignored it until 3-day leads. The Euro isn't as amped as either and is probably closer to a real solution, but it's not as cold as the Canadian on the second round so PIT gets warm-tongued. We'll see what the Euro does at 12Z. At 6Z it was clearly going to favor the second round like the Canadian, so snow from the first round was relatively minimal.

GFS and CMC evolutions are a good bit different. GFS wants a bigger first wave and then sort of staggers the second round into two pieces, one of which is mostly a southern rain. 5-10" of snow and then a minor mixed-to-rain event of sorts. Canadian says the second event is more amped and is mostly rain. Probably a 3-6" snow event washed away. I'll be curious to see what the Euro does at 12Z. At 0Z it was less amped on both events, unsurprisingly.

I feel like late February is kind of a winter storm "no man's land" for the area and much of PA. When was the last time there was a late February snow of significance? 1987? Things get more dicey mid-March as spring ushers in unusual and fluctuating weather patterns, but I feel like late Feb is often quiet. Maybe the data doesn't back that up and I'm wrong, though.

The snowfall maps for the GFS are cracked out because they are showing a lot of sleet accumulation. Conditions for a couple of those events don't support a moderate snowfall solution. In other words, they can't really be trusted right now. The longer term pattern looks more interesting, but there's a chance of an all-snow event next week prior to or around Valentine's Day. The GFS has several discrete events over a few days, but I think that might consolidate down into two - mid-week and then a weekend something. The Euro is keying more around the 12th/13th and then there's less consensus for a weekend event.

Relative to the last two winters, this one could definitely be considered a win. However, in the grand scheme of things, this winter is still relatively uninteresting. If we don't see another moderately-sized storm, I'd consider it a sub-average winter (C-).

I measured about 3.1" - which is technically a bust on the revised forecast, but the first NWS forecast was a winner. Those last minute short-range revisions were fool's gold, in hindsight. That all fell in about 3-4 hours, too. From onset of snow around 11 AM to say 4 PM, we only had maybe 0.5" of accumulation here.

Well, Eagles shaved another five years off my life.

They've really mismanaged this game. So many little mistakes adding up, too.

This defense plays so well for 55 minutes and then goes to sleep at the end of games.

Now is when you show your grit!

No tuddy. Need a shove.

I think Hurts tried to throw it and it slipped out. Dumb play call.

Finally under one those good bands. Nice to see a dash of snow puke.

This will be a good storm for the scrapbook. Mixed bag based heavily on locality.

Snow but the growth here isn't great. I don't think we hit 4" in the end.

I'm in Philly temporarily, so observing from here for now. Was hoping to get a big coastal while out here since I haven't enjoyed one since 2010. For now I just hope we can fill in this dryslot and not cut our totals too much. Speed and placement of meso features makes things iffy.