MJO812

27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

the 12Z Euro shifted south with the snow accumulations in the metro

We need a weaker primary . I think we see all rain but it's very interesting to track.

12 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Thanks. I don't crap on every threat. You know this.

It's amazing being ridiculed over 1 run of the CMC though by some here. I'll say that.

I have known you for years from other forums. When a storm is coming you will call it out.

10 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said:

Are you and snowman19 brothers? 

They are both really conservative. Nothing wrong with that .

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

are you a real Meteorologist ? just asking....the reason I am asking is some well known METS use this model in forecasting and have never trashed it....

I wonder how far south this can go. We haven't had the NAO this negative in a while.

1 minute ago, George001 said:

If we can avoid attenuation in future runs this will become interesting even for areas closer to the coast.

I wonder how far south this storm can go. Impressive blocking. 

46 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Nice edit. You could've just asked why I trash it or what my reasoning was instead of being flat out insulting.

Look at the verification scores. 

Ggem was once ahead of the gfs

1 hour ago, JetsPens87 said:

It is a legitimate garbage model

I mean you can say about any of the models. They all struggle. 

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hi CMC 

It came north so its not done coming north. Can't get lucky even with a negative NAO.

1 minute ago, NotSureWeather said:

CMC just parks it south of the cape for about a day. Sure.

It came north so its not done coming north. Can't get lucky even with a negative NAO.

Hi CMC 

Big NAO block but the primary runs into it.

Can't win

Boring 

Just now, Rtd208 said:

Even if we just get remnants of a tropical system that makes landfall to our south on the east coast or along the gulf coast that can still bring with it a whole slew of problems i.e. flooding, gusty winds etc. 

Just like last September. There was flooding everywhere here.

Just now, Rtd208 said:

Yeah I was never tracking it for snow here. There is nothing like tracking a powerful coastal storm regardless of precipitation type. Always fun and exciting. 

Rainy week ahead with rain starting Monday .

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m worried about a dangerous Atlantic hurricane season coming up…record warm MDR already, ++AMO, rapidly developing (possibly strong) La Niña…bad, bad combination. I also think we see a very hot summer with a likely roided up SE ridge and given the extreme soil moisture we have in place, it’s probably going to be humid as hell too

The tropics are going to be very active. We should be on the lookout.

Just now, snowman19 said:

Yep, big warmup coming, multi-model ensemble agreement on that too. Would not surprise me at all to see widespread 70’s show up again

Agree

La nina coming in strong 

13 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Always was

Sadly true but doesn't hurt to track it.

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Any time we get a period of cooler weather these days the warm up following the cooler weather ends up more impressive. Plus we haven’t been able to sustain -NAO patterns for very long since last fall. There is usually a quick NAO rebound to positive following any dips. The one exception is during the summer with the shift to record summer -NAOs in recent times.   

As we can see on the models. Once next week's storm passes, warm weather will start showing up.

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well it was fun. 

Cmc looks great

Do it

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No changes. 
 

Gonna need a subtle south shift if we want to get more of SNE in the game. 

Need the NAO to push it. Plenty of time.

32 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Thankfully zero signal for that on ensembles. Matter of fact quite the opposite. Big ridge forming in the E after the breakdown of the NAO block

Yep heat will be here mid to late April

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@MJO812 you will see 95+ degrees in April before you see 30 in Brooklyn ever again 

This is a stupid post and you know it.

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

You obviously didn’t read what he posted 

I did but it seems like he doesn't think so. Things go in cycles.

Wrap around snow showers