Mount Joy Snowman

Nice. Probably a figment of my imagination but you usually seem to do better out that way. Where are you at (without getting too personal ha)? Also, what are your monthly/yearly totals?

Statistician here. What you are doing here is called extrapolation -- an ill-advised tactic. Just state what the data shows within the time period actually measured. No need to put it in terms of degrees per century, which is almost certainly wildly inaccurate. ex·trap·o·late extend the application of (a method or conclusion, especially one based on statistics) to an unknown situation by assuming that existing trends will continue or similar methods will be applicable. "the results cannot be extrapolated to other patient groups" estimate or conclude (something) by extrapolating. "attempts to extrapolate likely human cancers from laboratory studies" MATHEMATICS extend (a graph, curve, or range of values) by inferring unknown values from trends in the known data.

.1" of rain here. Meh. Looks like a great weekend though.

The second brief shower of the day here in Harrisburg as I board the train.

Just a couple of hundredths here. Seems like the best chance for meaningful rain down this way will be late tonight into the pre-dawn hours tomorrow, and then perhaps some scattered convection later in the day on Friday. A lot of boom or bust potential with this one, me thinks. Anybody else notice that tomorrow could sneakily end up as one of our most uncomfortable days of the year. NWS has DPs spiking near the upper 70s for my area. At least they get knocked back down a good bit for the weekend.

A crisp 55 when I left the house this morning.

That’s pretty much my threshold as well. My forecast says 56 for tonight, so windows open for sure. I actually find mid to upper 50s to be the most ideal windows open temp. Perfectly crisp.

Yeah he is a special kind of bad. Never fails to live up to his reputation ha.

The Jackson House in Harrisburg makes a mean dagwood.

67/54 when I checked the display this morning. Splendid. So let me see if I got this right......the week ahead looks something like this: a couple of heavenly days, then some rain as we transition to one steamy day, and then another beautiful weekend? If so, sign me up. Loving this "pattern".

Low of 57 here. House feels great. Outside of Monday, looks like quite the pleasant stretch of summer weather. I dig it.

Can't imagine this won't result in some pretty potent mudslides on the desert mountain terrain, and some dry creek flash flooding. Wild scenario for that area for sure.

I just mowed and boy you ain't kidding. Gorgeous out. I reckon that will be my last mow for quite some time; yard is really turning brown in the most exposed spots. I want you to go a full calendar year with either no long sleeves or no long pants -- your choice. You can do it! Wow thanks for bringing that to my attention. Just incredible. Hold on a quick minute, I just checked and this is what NWS is showing for Death Valley?? This Afternoon Sunny and hot, with a high near 116. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 90. South wind 13 to 18 mph becoming light and variable. Saturday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Increasing clouds, with a high near 104. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Saturday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 84. Southeast wind 13 to 18 mph becoming north northeast 7 to 12 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sunday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 86. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Sunday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Low around 83. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Monday Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. High near 90. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Monday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 83.

I just went back and looked and, to your point, over half the days in both July and August last year had mins of at least 70 at MDT. This includes a stretch of 12 consecutive such nights in July and 8 in a row in August. Brutal.

Thanks for sharing. I have a weird interest in small stream data, or maybe it's just data that gets me ha. Anyway, the highest crest ever for that location was from Lee on 9/7/11, at 23.06 ft. Historic Crests(1) 23.06 ft on 09/07/2011(2) 20.57 ft on 01/19/1996(3) 18.88 ft on 08/13/2018(4) 18.00 ft on 01/25/2010(5) 17.79 ft on 07/25/2018(6) 17.20 ft on 03/10/2011(7) 17.03 ft on 09/18/2004(8) 16.23 ft on 12/25/2020(9) 16.14 ft on 05/02/2017(10) 16.12 ft on 07/24/2018 Recent Crests(1) 15.15 ft on 05/01/2023(2) 16.23 ft on 12/25/2020(3) 18.88 ft on 08/13/2018(4) 17.79 ft on 07/25/2018(5) 16.12 ft on 07/24/2018(6) 16.14 ft on 05/02/2017(7) 23.06 ft on 09/07/2011(8) 17.20 ft on 03/10/2011(9) 16.10 ft on 12/01/2010(10) 18.00 ft on 01/25/2010

I think it's been a fantastic summer. We have a near-flawless stretch upcoming this weekend too. Things look to turn dry but hey, we are approaching late August. All in all, I think it's been a good mix of warm and cool, wet and dry, and just overall pleasant (minus the couple smoke days ha). Low of 65 here. I saw you guys had a flood advisory up that way. Looks like you got the goods overnight. Just .06" here.

A tiny cell just went right overhead. Barely measurable but #OnTheBoard

You said it. To these eyes, a dome of high pressure looks to remain in control over most of the central and eastern US for the extended period. I imagine we could see some heat records falling across parts of the Midwest. This look from the WPC pretty much tells the story -- a late summertime look we know all too well ha......

Low of 63 here. I have serious doubts about the ability of tonight's frontal passage to produce much in the way of widespread convection and rainfall, which is unfortunate because after that the globals turn mostly bone dry for the foreseeable future. Either way, a splendid weekend in the offing.

It seems to be fine on RadarScope.

Nearly halfway through the month and MDT is running almost spot-on average at 76.4 (just a tenth AN). National high of 119 at Death Valley and low of 36 at Grand Lake, CO. The Atlantic tropics sure are quiet. As has been mentioned, they'll need to pick up the pace to hit their averages. Although, I have a feeling Sep/Oct could bring some Whoppers. We shall see. Carry on.

Got another brief shower overnight for a total of .12” and a low of 65. Looks like a splendid weekend on tap.

Yes but the weather gods demanded a pinky as sacrifice so I am currently down to nine digits.

A little cell popped up just east of @Itstrainingtime and went right over me. Maybe a tenth of an inch. Not much but sorely needed.

I would have given my left arm for .07" to be in the cylinder this morning!