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Everything posted by Mount Joy Snowman
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
All the models show plenty of possibilities "rounding the bend" and that is good enough for me. As you've said, we'll have stuff to track. Whether any of it hits the LSV or not, only time will tell. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I can't love this post enough. It's so cool that you have records going back that far and developed your love of weather early on with the help of your father. Great stuff. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 34. Looks like the rain is indeed cutting back on the forecasted highs for saturday, as I'm now down to 51. Maybe Friday will pop with a bit of early clearing. After starting this stretch of warmth ~4 degrees BN, MDT will end it ~4 degrees AN. Then things turn "interesting" again. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Sure does. The airmass is in place to hit your 60 degree prediction but I wonder if there will be enough clouds and rain around to keep us just shy. Could be close. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Debating with myself over here, as I see some Cocorahs peeps in Lancaster reported .01 or .02 inches of precip. I would say they fell for the heavy dew trap but then I see a few WU stations right near me reported .01-.02" around the 9-10pm timeframe last night, which would seem to nullify the dew theory. Is it possible I missed a little shower late last evening? Can any of my local friends chime in on whether we got rain or not? Got to keep those KMJS books accurate! -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 37 and heavy fog in the valleys. A solid .015” in the gauge but not seeing any evidence it rained. While all surfaces are wet, it has that classic heavy fog/dew combo look, so not putting anything in the books. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 27. There is no greater joy in life than waking up to Blizz having posted GFS 240+ hour snow threats. Always brings a smile to my face haha. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 24. I ended December with 4.7" of snow and 2.04" of total precipitation. For the year, I recorded measurable precip on 135 days totaling 52.41", nearly 13" more than MDT's 39.69". MDT ended the year with a mean temp of 54.3, exactly equal to its climate normal period average. The Northeast has been dominating the national lows lately, with the latest iteration being won by Mt. Washington at -17. A spot in Maine hit -27 the prior night. Onward. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 25. Happy last day of regular season football. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Low of 19. Solid winter days here before we warm up for a bit. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I’m at 17 already. Another low bust. Been a theme lately. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
It’s incredible. Such a well coached team that plays with insane physicality. They play so smart. I am blown away by them. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Same to you Training! This board wouldn’t be what it is without you. And don’t you dare feel bad about what transpired. There was nothing inflammatory in your post at all. That was a decision made by that poster and he needs to own that. You should carry no guilt. Happy New Year to all! -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My .3” of snow came to .02” liquid. Pork roast is in the slow cooker. Time for some football. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I slept right through everything, must have been the whiskey ha. Low of 22 and .3” of snow that I’m currently melting down. Happy New Year! -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Back at ya Candy! That squall line coming through in a couple hours looks legit! -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
24 when I left the house. Some light radar returns overhead this morning but nothing was reaching the ground. Excited to see who can catch a squall later tonight. Hope everyone has a fun and safe New Year’s Eve. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
You were out in that wind most of the day!? A true warrior you are, Nut. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Saw that, and still ranting about the performance of the models. I also saw he openly admitted to preferring warm weather and said he doesn't root for big snowstorms. Alrighty then. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Back to back days with .03” of rain. Low of 28. Winds had me up through the night and were downright vicious around 3am. Let’s see if we can’t catch a dusting one of the next couple nights. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
the future.... HGEFS (Hybrid-GEFS): A pioneering, hybrid "grand ensemble" that combines the new AI-based AIGEFS (above) with NOAA’s flagship ensemble model, the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Initial testing shows that this model, a first-of-its kind approach for an operational weather center, consistently outperforms both the AI-only and physics-only ensemble systems. HGEFS — the most innovative application in the new suite. The HGEFS is a 62-member "grand ensemble" created by combining the 31 members of the physical GEFS with the 31 members of the AI-based AIGEFS. Performance: by combining two different modeling systems (one physics-based, one AI-based), the HGEFS creates a larger, more robust ensemble that more effectively represents forecast uncertainty. As a result, the HGEFS consistently outperforms both the GEFS and the AIGEFS across most major verification metrics. A NOAA first: to our knowledge, NOAA is the first organization in the world to implement such a hybrid physical-AI ensemble system. Area for future improvement: NOAA continues its work to improve HGEFS’s hurricane intensity forecasts. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
.03” of rain and temp up to 43. Time to brace for the winds! -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The staying power of this ice is impressive. Between the cold temps and minimal solar the trees still look great and even some other surfaces are hanging on. I’m still at 32 under thick clouds and the pines look amazing. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My current temp of 29 hasn’t budged all through the night. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Mount Joy Snowman replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My daytime temp never got above 33 today. Now at 31. Been a fair amount of low busts in the temp department lately. Love it.
