Mount Joy Snowman

18z NAM at 84.....

That's my thing, why not show some real gumption and relay this concern when the core of the snow totals were projected along the N. Carolina border, not when it's to the point any novice can see the possibility. Don't do the 'ol "the reason I haven't said anything about the storm is because I feared this thing happening that is now showing to happen on the most recent model runs." Uh huh. Then say that, back when you thought it. Unless of course you never had those thoughts and are just trying to appear like the smartest guy in the room. He could have scored some real points but this just feels like covering his bases mixed with a bit of late-game justification.

Day 6 worrying about suppression and by day 4 worrying about sleet intrusion, got to love the joys of east coast snowstorm tracking haha. I'll plant my flag in Lancaster and take our chances. As others have stated, the opening WAA has to be hefty no matter what given the strength of the antecedent cold airmass.

Was just coming over to say the NAM at 84 looks like an incoming bomb for PA.

Just went by MDT on the train and the river ice is back in a big way. Can’t wait to see what it looks like next week.

Low of 6 at the house and 0 through the rurals. Man, if you thought my pants were tight yesterday morning, whew baby these overnight runs. Well, I’ve officially moved from worried too far south to worried too far north ha. But seriously, what a spot we sit in here in the LSV. Now we just need to survive another 96 hours of windshield wiper model runs. Steady as she goes. Steady.

I saw that, give us more Eric! Also, enjoy your trip pal.

I'd be lying if I said the depth of the cold didn't have me a bit on edge. Still like where we sit but things are FAR from locked. One of many big Euro runs incoming.

11 at the house when I left and 3 through the rurals. I haven’t had much time to dive into things for this weekend, will do so today, but from what I’ve seen on this board my pants are officially getting tight. Big week ahead.

Yesterday’s early morning snow combined with the late afternoon surprise dusting amounted to an additional 2.5” off of .21” liquid, for a weekend total of 4.7”. Low last night dropped to 14, as this snowpack should really be able to show its teeth in the nights ahead. Hoping for a nice storm this weekend, have to get back into the swing of things. Onward.

My 2.2” of snow melted down to .17”. Man, for what was looking like a nothing burger this weekend is turning into quite the wintry affair. Love it.

Total snowfall of 2.2” here as things wind down.

Big fatties falling here. Like saucers from the sky.

9am Obs: 30/28 with moderate, to at times heavy, snow. Closing in on an inch. Beautiful.

You really are in a tough spot now. Too southeast to cash in on the lake stuff and too west for the coastal stuff. Also lying low between ridges. Rough gig.

I was just coming here to post that. It shows a bit of that localized boom potential that @Itstrainingtime posted about from MU.

My NWS hour by hour has the DP at 14 at midnight and not rising above 20 until 7-8am-ish. Who knows, I just want to see snow, whenever it comes. Having a buddy over tonight to watch the Penn State-Iowa wrestling dual and making some old fashioneds. I might have to stay up and see what transpires, or more likely just fall asleep on the couch haha.

They seem fairly split on the midnight action but either way I tend to think that opening batch may appear more as virga and serve to overcome the dry dews, setting the table for a quick morning slug. That's my thoughts anyway. Oh, and the only model that truly matters, that being the RAP (no sarcasm detected), shows a nice morning hit. #RapForTheWin

Most of the guidance I've looked at has a 6-10ish type timeframe for the main swath. Some show a separate batch breaking out ahead of the morning slug sometime during the overnight hours, but early morning seems the best bet for seeing accumulating flakes.

Low of 18. I like my chances for an inch of snow tomorrow morning. Happy Friday, all.

Thank you good sir. Yes, I’ve been to that Brimmer’s a number of times over the years. Today I just went to the Rohrerstown DMV and believe it or not I was in and out, got there right when they opened. ‘Twas quite pleased. I believe you have to go to a PennDot center for real ID, so no dice on Brimmer’s.

Current temp of 29 is the low. Didn’t see any snow but .05” of rain in the bucket. Have to spend my birthday at the DMV this morning. I’d rather put pencils through my eyeballs.

We are looking at one heck of a midnight high tonight, with temps perhaps ten degrees greater than our daytime highs tomorrow.

Low of 39. Perhaps some of us get to wake up to a whitened yard tomorrow morning and then hoping for some vibrant tracking come the last week of January. Onward.

Feels like a good time to remind everyone of the following, all of which is taken from MU's exactly 100 years of snowfall record-keeping. MU only averages a 12"+ snowfall about once every three years and only averages a little over two events per year with >4". They average ~9.5 measurable snowfalls a year at an average accumulation of 2.86", for a yearly average ~27". Over 75% of the accumulated snowfall comes from events <4". 32% of the snow falls in Feb, 30% in Jan, 17% Dec, 16% Mar, 3% Nov, and 1% in April (yes I'm aware these add up to 99 and not 100 ha). Leanest decade was the 50's with an average annual snowfall of only 21.6". Current decade is averaging only 14.8" but that is coming on the heels of one of our snowiest from 2010-2019 with an average of 35.5". Snowiest decade was the 60s with an annual average of 36.2".