Mount Joy Snowman

ICON stays fairly east, FWIW.

NAM puts down 8" at MDT and 17" at LNS haha.

NAM still pouring down snow all through Monday morning.

NAM with another beautiful depiction. The stuff dreams are made of.

Low of 33 with .01" of rain. At this point, I'd just set the Over/Under at 6" for Lanc and call it a day. @ChescoWx looks to be in a great spot for this but man that coastal cutoff between him and, say @Jns2183, could be brutal.

It wouldn't be a proper storm if I didn't bring up the RAP haha. Behold!

Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club. Keep that westward movement coming.

GFS is again a monster and perhaps even more so towards Lanc but my goodness that cutoff....

ICON gets tucked and joins the party. Big changes and big totals.

The extreme cutoff many are worried about exemplified to the max on the FV3, with 20" in eastern Lancaster County and 5" in Etown.

NAM would be historic for southcentral NJ. I continue to believe my buddy in Hammonton is in the bullseye.

NAM looks phenomenal through 48.

The HRRR paints a very solid picture, with a widespread 3-6" across our area by the end of its run at 7pm Sunday just as the coastal is ramping up. Next 12 hours would be fun to view. On to the NAM.

0z HRRR with a much better depiction through the early part of its run.

It's a totally fair concern. I would add that mixing issues through the first part of the storm have showed up on a number of models. The surface temps are marginal and really don't crash until the coastal gets ramping, so the question becomes how much qpf do we lose on the front end to mix or an inability to efficiently accumulate on surfaces. All valid concerns. Bottom line, as you said, be prepared for anything. Isn't that what makes this all fun anyway? Cheers!