I don't know why this is a surprise to everyone. The SE is warming year over year and dew points are rising also. We will have more and more mixing issues and the warm nose will increase in intensity. The fact the mountains has been blessed with this much snow and the SE hasn't torched as badly this year is a miracle. Always something to be thankful for.
it's actually 1044
This time it looks like we will not have the marginal cold issues to deal with. I know lakes lows have screwed us over the last few years.
This is true, but it's also about the gradients.
The ups and downs this season is worse than the ups and downs in Days of Our Lives. It sucks there is not as much data going into the models to produce accurate results. I hope the Triad folks get a snowy surprise this weekend!
It's not appropriate to judge what the exact p-type will be this far out. That is a clear CAD signature with a Miller A on the GFS. It's also depicted on the Euro.
If I recall, the winter storm we had last night was not picked up by models until 4-5 days in advance. Less planes = Less accurate results.
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/163/editorial/ecmwf-and-covid-19